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Registros recuperados: 149
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A Categorical Data Analysis on Risks in Agriculture AgEcon
Uematsu, Hiroki; Mishra, Ashok K..
This study compares farm operators’ risk perceptions and actual realization of risk attitudes revealed through off-farm labor, enterprise diversification, and use of contracts, crop insurance, and other types of insurance, using data from 2001 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). Results from ordered logit model and multivariate probit models unexpectedly found that risk loving farmers are more likely to employ risk management strategies.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Labor and Human Capital; Marketing; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q10; Q12.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98839
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A RENEWAL THEORETIC APPROACH TO ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARD SETTING AgEcon
Batabyal, Amitrajeet A..
The process of environmental regulation is usually a two-step one. In the first step, a standard for environmental quality is set. Then, in the second step, a regulatory mechanism is put in place to achieve the standard. In this paper I show how renewal theory can be used to set the quality standard optimally.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Environmental; Regulation; Standard; Renewal; Theory; Environmental Economics and Policy; D81; Q20.
Ano: 1995 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28354
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A REPRESENTATIVE FARM APPROACH TO OUTREACH WITH BEGINNING FARMERS AND RANCHERS AgEcon
Zimmel, Peter; Wilcox, Lori.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Beginning Farmers and Ranchers; Representative Farm; Whole Farm Analysis; Risk Management; Online Decision Support; Stochastic; Baseline; Farm Management; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession; Q12; Q14; D81.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109477
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A Whole Farm Analysis of the Influence of Auto-Steer Navigation on Net Returns, Risk, and Production Practices AgEcon
Shockley, Jordan M.; Dillon, Carl R.; Stombaugh, Timothy S..
A whole farm economic analysis was conducted to provide a detailed assessment into the economic, risk, and production implications due to the adoption of auto-steer navigation. It was determined that auto-steer navigation was profitable for a grain farmer in Kentucky with net returns increasing up to 0.90% ($3.35/acre). Additionally, the technology could be used in reducing production risk. Adoption of the technology also alters production practices for optimal use.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Economics; Farm management; Mean-variance; Precision agriculture; Simulation; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; C63; D81; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100640
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Actuarial evaluation of the EU proposed farm income stabilisation tool AgEcon
Pigeon, Mathieu; Frahan, Bruno Henry de; Denuit, Michel.
Recently, the European Commission proposed to introduce several risk management tools in the rural development pillar 2 of the CAP. One of them consists in providing co-financing support to mutual funds compensating farmers who experience a severe drop in their farm income. This paper analyses this new farm income stabilization tool for the Walloon region in Belgium, considering separately three groups of farms (crop, dairy and cattle farms). Relying on FADN data from 1997 to 2007, this analysis focuses on estimating the probability that such regional mutual funds would need to intervene to compensate farm net incomes and, in that case, the expected amount of each farm income compensation and the total expected amount of compensation. The budgetary...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural risk management; Income stabilisation; Belgium; European Union; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12; Q18..
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122485
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Advanced Biofuel Production in Louisiana Sugar Mills: an Application of Real Options Analysis AgEcon
Darby, Paul M.; Mark, Tyler B.; Detre, Joshua D.; Salassi, Michael E..
In order to more fully study the risks and uncertainty involved in cellulosic ethanol production, we examine a simulated plant in South Louisiana using Real Options Analysis
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Real options; Risk; Uncertainty; Cellulosic ethanol; Energy cane; Sorghum; Bagasse; Simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q42; Q14; Q16; D81; G31.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103747
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Agricultural Insurance as an Environmental Policy Tool AgEcon
Coble, Keith H.; Hanson, Terrill R.; Miller, J. Corey; Shaik, Saleem.
This paper examines the possibility that insurance for row crops, livestock, and aquaculture can be used effectively to encourage producers to adopt practices that will improve environmental behavior. Examples of agricultural environmental insurance are provided and considered in the context of alternative policy mechanisms. The current state of agricultural insurance and the nonagricultural environmental insurance market are explored. We also lay out the characteristics of an insurable risk along with the theoretical basis of insurance provision. An empirical example of an environmental insurance design is provided, and the behavioral implications of such a design are examined. Finally, we discuss important considerations that should be evaluated...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Environment; Insurance; Liability; D81; G22; H23; K13; Q18.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43214
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AGRICULTURAL PRICE VOLATILITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: The Impact of Multiple Objectives on Commodity Prices AgEcon
Fuss, Sabine; Havlik, Petr; Szolgayova, Jana; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin.
Agricultural price volatility has moved to the forefront of research efforts and political discussion, where much work is already being undertaken with respect to the impact of fluctuations in input prices (e.g. fertilizer, feed and energy). In this paper we also want to take into account the impact of climate change on prices via increased volatility in crop yields. In addition, we analyze the impact of having multiple objectives competing for the land on which crops are grown. In particular, we want to address the concerns that have been voiced about biofuel targets and calls for prioritization of food security.
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Energy; Food security; Food price volatility; Optimization under uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q18; Q28; C61; D81.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122539
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Ambiguous Aggregation of Expert Opinions: The Case of Optimal R&D Investment AgEcon
Athanassoglou, Stergios; Bosetti, Valentina; Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier de.
How should a decision-maker allocate R&D funds when a group of experts provides divergent estimates on a technology's potential effectiveness? To address this question, we propose a simple decision-theoretic framework that takes into account ambiguity over the aggregation of expert opinion and a decision-maker's attitude towards it. In line with the paper's focus on R&D investment, decision variables in our model may affect experts' subjective probability distributions of the future potential of a technology. Using results from convex optimization, we are able to establish a number of analytical results including a closed-form expression of our model's value function, as well as a thorough investigation of its differentiability properties. We apply...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Expert Opinions; R&D; Convex/Conic Optimization; Aggregation; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C61; D81; Q42.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121719
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An Examination of the Tradeoff between Net Return, Risk, and Water Quality for Crop Rotations in South Central Kansas AgEcon
Langemeier, Michael R.; Nelson, Nathan; Parajuli, Prem; Perkins, Seth.
This paper determined the optimal crop rotation in South Central Kansas. The model incorporated net return, risk, and water quality. In general, water quality improved as tillage was reduced within a rotation type and by adding an alfalfa rotation. The optimal crop rotation mixes included wheat, grain sorghum, soybeans, and alfalfa.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Water quality; Optimal crop rotation; Risk and return; Farm Management; D24; D81.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56407
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An Experimental Investigation of Inter-temporal Risk Decision-making (PowerPoint) AgEcon
Coble, Keith H.; Lusk, Jayson L..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Decision-making; Risk and Uncertainty; D81.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48911
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Análise de arranjos para extração de óleos vegetais e suprimento de usina de biodiesel AgEcon
Sartori, Marco Antonio; Perez, Ronaldo; da Silva Junior, Aziz Galvao; Machado, Silvia Regina Sartori; Santos, Manoela Maciel de Souza; Miranda, Carlos Alberto de Castro.
This study aimed at the technical-economical evaluation of implanting some vegetal-oil extraction units in order to insert the family agriculture into bio-diesel production chain. Three project models (arrangements) for vegetal-oil extraction units at different sizes were proposed, using extraction by pressing and mixed extraction (extracting by either pressing or solvent) and different raw materials (castor-oil and soybean). For the size analysis, the oil production scales between 50/60 tons/day were used with real market data concerning investments, inputs prices of the process, raw materials and vegetal oil. For the economic analyses, the software BioSoft was used. The BioSoft is a program for supporting the decision-making process, which was developed...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Vegetal oil; Extraction; Viability; Crop Production/Industries; L25; D81; L69..
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60807
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Analysing Farmers' Decision-Making Process Face to the Mid-Term Review of the Common Agricultural Policy in the Alentejo region of Portugal AgEcon
Serrao, Amilcar; Coelho, Luis.
This paper describes an experiment that was carried out in order to examine the decision making process of farmers in the Alentejo dryland region of Portugal. Cumulative Prospect Theory allows modeling the Alentejo dryland farmers' decision process, because when they decide what crops and livestock activities will produce the different results are appraised relatively to the initial wealth, which permits its appraisal in terms of gains and of losses. An inquiry is developed to study the Alentejo dryland farmers' preferences, which intend to determine risk preferences through a set of games. A discrete sequential stochastic programming model is developed to examine farmers' decision-making process face to the mid-term review of the Common Agricultural...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cumulative Prospect Theory; Discrete Sequential Stochastic Programming; Farm Management; C65; D81.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19266
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Analysis of the Adoption of Irrigation Technologies Under Uncertain Water Availability AgEcon
Escribano, Maria Jesus; Calatrava-Leyva, Javier.
This paper analyses the adoption process of water-conserving irrigation technologies by a risk averse farmer in a context of uncertain water availability. Firstly, it is analytically shown that the increase in water efficiency that the new technology allows results in a decrease in the cost of the effective irrigation water applied, as well as in an increase in both effective water applied and crop production. It is also concluded that the optimal amount of irrigation water applied depends on individual risk preferences of the producer, on the variance and asymmetry of the cost of water applied, and on the elasticity of the marginal productivity of the effective water applied. Lastly, it is theoretically shown that an increase in the level of uncertainty...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Irrigation technology; Adoption; Risk; Water availability; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q25; Q12; D81.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24672
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Analyzing Producer Preferences for Counter-Cyclical Government Payments AgEcon
Miller, J. Corey; Barnett, Barry J.; Coble, Keith H..
A dynamic-stochastic model is developed to evaluate preferences among alternative countercyclical payment programs for representative farms producing corn or soybeans in Iowa and cotton or soybeans in Mississippi. Countercyclical payment programs are found to not necessarily be preferred to fixed payment programs.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Bootstrapping; Countercyclical payments; Nonparametric; C15; D81; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43203
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Animal Disease Pre-Event Preparedness versus Post-Event Response: When is it Economic to Protect? AgEcon
Elbakidze, Levan; McCarl, Bruce A..
We examine the economic tradeoff between the costs of pre-event preparedness and post-event response to the potential introduction of an infectious animal disease. In a simplified case study setting, we examine the conditions for optimality of an enhanced pre-event detection system considering various characteristics of a potential infectious cattle disease outbreak, costs of postevent response actions. We show that the decision to invest in pre-event preparedness activities depends on such factors as probability of disease introduction, disease spread rate, relative costs, ancillary benefits, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Animal disease; Economic balance; Mitigation strategies; Preparedness; Response; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Livestock Production/Industries; Q1; Q18; D81.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43768
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Can Risk Reducing Policies Reduce Farmer's Risk and Improve Their Welfare? AgEcon
Anton, Jesus; Giner, Celine.
This paper develops an analytical model able to represent the decisions of an individual risk averse farmer facing variability in both prices and yields. A comprehensive set of stylised risk reducing policy measures is represented. A calibration of the model is used to run Monte-Carlo simulations and to obtain optimal responses. The main focus is the interaction between policy measures and market strategies in terms of impacts on production, welfare and risk. Risk reducing strategies that cover different sources of risk, such as price and yield variability, may be complementary for the farmers. Counter-cyclical area payments create incentives to bring land into production and their capacity to reduce farming risk is mitigated by the potential crowding out...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Welfare; Policy; Insurance; Counter-cyclical; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24578
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Captive insurance companies and the management of non-conventional corporate risks AgEcon
Lesourd, Jean-Baptiste; Schilizzi, Steven.
We examine under what conditions setting up a captive insurance company with reinsurance is an optimal solution for risk-averse firms when the insured firm, the insurer and the reinsurer do not know the probability distribution of some risks, and have conflicting estimates of this distribution.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Corporate insurance; Reinsurance; Uncertainty; Ambiguity; Non-conventional risks; Captive insurance companies; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; G22; Q2.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100886
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CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES PROVIDED BY SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS: A LITERATURE REVIEW AgEcon
Hill, Harvey S.J.; Mjelde, James W..
Use of seasonal climate forecasts is a rapidly evolving area. Effective research and application of climate forecasts require close cooperation between scientists in diverse disciplines and decision makers. Successful collaboration requires all players to at least partially understand each other's perspectives. Issues associated with seasonal forecasts, through a selected review of both physical and social sciences literature, is presented. Our hope is that the review will improve research in this area by stimulating further collaborations.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Climate forecasts; Review; Value of information; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; D80; D81; O30; Q00.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15071
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Choice of Optimal Planting and Marketing Decisions for Fresh Vegetable Producers: A Mathematical Programming Approach AgEcon
Vassalos, Michael; Dillon, Carl R.; Coolong, Tim.
This study combines whole farm economic analysis with biophysical simulation techniques in order to achieve a twofold objective. First, the study seeks to develop a multiple enterprise vegetable farm model with a production and marketing decision interface and, second, to determine optimal production practices for Kentucky vegetable growers. Three vegetable crops are examined: tomatoes, bell peppers and sweet corn. The findings indicate that the risk associated with vegetable production can be significantly mitigated with diversification of production mix and with a greater number of transplanting dates. However, this reduction in risk comes at a high cost in terms of expected net returns.
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Vegetable production; Mean-variance; Biophysical simulation; Farm management; Farm Management; C61; C63; D81.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120016
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