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| Registros recuperados: 13 | |
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| Agrell, Per J.. |
| The development of a third world country requires a conscious balance between different planning and policy issues, such as population growth rate, gross national income, self reliance and long-term sustainable ecological development. This paper reports on a cross-disciplinary project to design a decision support system (DSS) that aims to assist government policy makers in planning the regional agricultural development of the Bungoma region in Kenya. Contrary to previous research, which has taken the perspective of a central planner and a static market, this model extends the scope by introducing the market mechanisms and price subsidies. The model is based on the Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) model, a previously developed non-interactive optimization... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Decision analysis; Multicriteria decision making; Integrated land-use planning and management; Decision support systems; Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24178 |
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| Marmorek, David; ESSA Technologies Ltd.; dmarmorek@essa.com; Peters, Calvin; ESSA Technologies Ltd.; cpeters@essa.com. |
| Observed declines in the Snake River basin salmon stocks, listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), have been attributed to multiple causes: the hydrosystem, hatcheries, habitat, harvest, and ocean climate. Conflicting and competing analyses by different agencies led the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) in 1995 to create the Plan for Analyzing and Testing Hypotheses (PATH), a collaborative interagency analytical process. PATH included about 30 fisheries scientists from a dozen agencies, as well as independent participating scientists and a technical facilitation team. PATH had some successes and some failures in meeting its objectives. Some key lessons learned from these successes and failures were to: (1) build trust through independent... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Analytical framework; Collaborative process; Columbia River; Decision analysis; Endangered species; Hydrosystem; Multi-agency research; Salmon management; Snake River. |
| Ano: 2001 |
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| Johnson, Fred A; U.S. Geological Survey; fjohnson@usgs.gov; Eaton, Mitchell J; U.S. Geological Survey; mitchell.eaton@usgs.gov; McMahon, Gerard; U.S. Geological Survey; gmcmahon@usgs.gov; Nilius, Raye; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; raye_nilius@fws.gov; Bryant, Michael R.; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; mike_bryant@fws.gov; Case, David J.; DJ Case & Associates; dave@djcase.com; Martin, Julien; U.S. Geological Survey; julienmartin@usgs.gov; Wood, Nathan J; U.S. Geological Survey; nwood@usgs.gov; Taylor, Laura; North Carolina State University; lotaylor@ncsu.edu. |
| National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight |
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Allocation; Decision analysis; Ecosystem valuation; Global change; National Wildlife Refuge; Objectives; Policy; Portfolio analysis; Reserve design; Stakeholders. |
| Ano: 2015 |
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| Stott, Alistair W.. |
| Endemic disease of animals is an economic problem as it deprives humans of scarce resources that might otherwise satisfy human wants. Optimisation methods identify the strategies that minimise this economic problem. Given the potentially vast extent of the deprivation, not only in terms of lost wealth but also in terms of animal welfare, human health and environmental damage, this subject offers great benefits to decision-makers from the individual farm to the global level. This paper uses examples to illustrate the basic economic principles concerned. It shows how these principles may be extended to deal with current limitations in theory and practice. Lack of data is a common problem that may be dealt with by using computer simulation, theoretical... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Economics; Decision analysis; Optimisation; Modelling; Endemic disease; Knowledge transfer; Health Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46000 |
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| Batz, Michael B.; Albers, Heidi J.; Avalos-Sartorio, Beatriz; Blackman, Allen. |
| Shade-grown coffee provides a livelihood to many farmers, protects biodiversity, and creates environmental services. Many shade-coffee farmers have abandoned production in recent years, however, in response to declines in international coffee prices. This paper builds a farmer decision model under price uncertainty and uses simulation analysis of that model to examine the likely impact of various policies on abandonment of shade-coffee plantations. Using information from coastal Oaxaca, Mexico, this paper examines the role of various constraints in abandonment decisions, reveals the importance of the timing of policies, and characterizes the current situation in the study region. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Coffee farming; Decision analysis; Numerical modeling; Monte Carlo; Price variability; Crop Production/Industries; O13; Q17; Q12; Q23; Q24. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10511 |
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| Robinson, Lucy M.; Marzloff, Martin; Van Putten, Ingrid; Pecl, Gretta; Jennings, Sarah; Nicol, Sam; Hobday, Alistair J.; Tracey, Sean; Hartmann, Klaas; Haward, Marcus; Frusher, Stewart. |
| Climate-driven changes in ocean currents have facilitated the range extension of the long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii) from Australia's mainland to eastern Tasmania over recent decades. Since its arrival, destructive grazing by the urchin has led to widespread formation of sea urchin 'barrens'. The loss of habitat, biodiversity and productivity for important commercial reef species in conjunction with the development of an urchin fishery has led to conflicting objectives among stakeholders, which poses complex challenges for regional management. Stakeholder representatives and managers were engaged via a participatory workshop and subsequent one-on-one surveys to trial a structured decision-making process to identify effective... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Structured decision-making; Decision analysis; Multi-method elicitation; Stakeholder engagement; Ecosystem-based management; Species range extension; Keystone herbivore; Global marine hotspot. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00590/70226/69512.pdf |
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| Hyde, Jeffrey; Martin, Marshall A.; Preckel, Paul V.; Buschman, Lawrent L.; Edwards, C. Richard; Sloderbeck, Phillip E.; Higgins, Randall A.. |
| While most Corn Belt farmers consider planting Bt corn to control European corn borer, southwestern Kansas farmers must also take into account an array of other insect pests, including corn rootworm, spider mites, and southwestern corn borer. This research uses a decision analysis framework to estimate the expected economic value of Bt corn in southwest Kansas. Mean per acre Bt values ranged from $12.49 to $34.60, well above the technology fee assumed to be $14 per unit, or $5.25 per acre at a seeding rate of 30,000 seeds per acre. The minimum value over all scenarios was $8.69 per acre. Using Monte Carlo simulation, it was shown that European and southwestern corn borer infestation probabilities, expected corn price, and expected pest-free yields are... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Bt corn; Decision analysis; European corn borer; Integrated pest management; Monte Carlo simulation; Southwestern corn borer; Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30721 |
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| Failing, Lee; Compass Resource Management; lfailing@compassrm.com; Horn, Graham; ; ghorn@planit.bc.ca; Higgins, Paul; ; paul.Higgins@bchydro.bc.ca. |
| This paper provides an example of a practical integration of probabilistic policy analysis and multi-stakeholder decision methods at a hydroelectric facility in British Columbia, Canada. A structured decision-making framework utilizing the probabilistic judgments of experts, a decision tree, and a Monte Carlo simulation provided insight to a decision to implement an experimental flow release program. The technical evaluation of the expected costs and benefits of the program were integrated into the multi-stakeholder decision process. The framework assessed the magnitude of the uncertainty, its potential to affect water management decisions, the predictive ability of the experiment, the value of the expected costs and benefits, and the preferences of... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Decision analysis; Expert judgment; Hydroelectricity; Multi-attribute evaluation; Multi-stakeholder consultation; Risk management; Value of information. |
| Ano: 2004 |
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| Ferguson, Paige F. B.; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama; Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia; pfferguson@ua.edu; Conroy, Michael J; Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia; mconroy@uga.edu; Chamblee, John F; Department of Anthropology, University of Georgia; chamblee@uga.edu; Hepinstall-Cymerman, Jeffrey; Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia; jhepinst@uga.edu. |
| Parcelization and forest fragmentation are of concern for ecological, economic, and social reasons. Efforts to keep large, private forests intact may be supported by a decision-making process that incorporates landowners’ objectives and uncertainty. We used structured decision making (SDM) with owners of large, private forests in Macon County, North Carolina. Macon County has little land use regulation and a history of discordant, ineffective attempts to address land use and development. We worked with landowners to define their objectives, identify decision options for forest management, build a Bayesian decision network to predict the outcomes of decisions, and determine the optimal and least-desirable decision options. The optimal forest... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Bayesian decision network; Conservation easement; Decision analysis; Forestry; Fragmentation; Heritage; Present-use value; Sustainability; Timber harvest. |
| Ano: 2015 |
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| Registros recuperados: 13 | |
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