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A COMPARISON OF NOMINAL AND REAL HISTORICAL RISK MEASURES AgEcon
Ford, Beth Pride; Musser, Wesley N..
Previous studies of historical risk have used either nominal or real data to calculate risk measures for agricultural prices and income. However, the effects of using nominal and real data have not been evaluated. This study utilizes theoretical variance approximation relationships to examine variances from detrended real and nominal time series. The relationships between variances are derived for quarterly U.S. farm milk prices for 1960-72, 1973-80, and 1981-90. Contrary to common intuitive arguments, results indicate that variances of real time series can be larger than variances of nominal series. While definitive conclusions are not possible, several reasons for using nominal data in risk analysis are given.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Detrending; Indices; Nominal data; Risk measurement; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15259
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IS INCREASED INSTABILITY IN CEREAL PRODUCTION IN ETHIOPIA CAUSED BY POLICY CHANGES? AgEcon
Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta; Oosthuizen, Klopper; van Schalkwyk, Herman D..
In Ethiopia, growth in cereal production is accompanied by a more than proportionate increase in the standard deviation of production. This study applies descriptive and variance decomposition procedures to determine the sources of increased instability in cereal production in order to show whether they are caused by policy changes. It was found that production instability was caused more by increased yield instability. Considering the fact that use of high-powered inputs is limited to a small number of farmers, production is at subsistence level and that farmers' responsiveness to policy changes is constrained by infrastructural and institutional constraints and by the existing land policy, instability in yield is predominantly attributed to weather...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cereals; Detrending; Differencing; Production instability; Variance decomposition; Ethiopia.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25892
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