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Agricultural Efficiency Gains and Trade Liberalization in Sudan AgEcon
Siddig, Khalid H.A.; Babiker, Babiker Idris.
The traditional agriculture in Sudan occupies 60% of the total cultivated land and employs 65% of the agricultural population. Nevertheless, it is characterized by its low crop productivity, which is mainly driven by low technical efficiency, while drought and civil conflicts threaten most of its areas countrywide. Therefore, it has contributed only an average of 16% to the total agricultural GDP during the last decade. This paper addresses from an empirical point of view the sectoral and macroeconomic implications of agricultural efficiency improvement in Sudan and assesses the efficiency gains under the assumption of trade liberalization. Efficiency improvement experiments are implemented by augmenting the efficiency parameters of labor, capital, and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural efficiency; Liberalization; Sudan SAM; CGE analysis; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Food Security and Poverty; Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; D2; D5; D6; E1; E2; F1; F2; H2.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/112786
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Prognoseleistung von Fruhindikatoren: Die Bedeutung von Fruhindikatoren fur Konjunk-turprognosen - Eine Analyse fur Deutschland AgEcon
Hinze, Jorg.
Das Papier untersucht die Rolle von Frühindikatoren bei der Erstellung von Konjunkturprognosen. Gegenstand der Analyse sind die Fragen: Welche Kriterien sollten Frühindikatoren generell erfüllen bzw. was sollten Frühindikatoren leisten? Inwieweit erfüllen die gängigen Indikatoren diese Anforderungen? Wie ist die Prognosegüte der verschiedenen Frühindikatoren zu beurteilen? Die theoretischen Überlegungen und ökonometrischen Untersuchungen kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass die gängigen Frühindikatoren die in sie gesetzten Erwartungen nur eingeschränkt erfüllen können. Der Verlauf einzelner Frühindikatoren lässt keine eindeutigen Schlußfolgerungen auf die reale Wirtschaftsentwicklung zu und der Vorlauf der Frühindikatoren vor der realen Entwicklung beträgt...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Konjunktur; Wirtschaftspolitik; Agricultural and Food Policy; C3; C5; E1; E3.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26253
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Vector Autoregressions, Policy Analysis, and Directed Acyclic Graphs: An Application to the U.S. Economy AgEcon
Awokuse, Titus O.; Bessler, David A..
The paper considers the use of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), and their construction from observational data with PC-algorithm TETRAD II, in providing over-identifying restrictions on the innovations from a vector autoregression. Results from Sims’ 1986 model of the US economy are replicated and compared using these data-driven techniques. The directed graph results show Sims’ six-variable VAR is not rich enough to provide an unambiguous ordering at usual levels of statistical significance. A significance level in the neighborhood of 30 % is required to find a clear structural ordering. Although the DAG results are in agreement with Sims’ theory-based model for unemployment, differences are noted for the other five variables: income, money supply, price...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Vector autoregression; Directed graphs; Policy analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C1; E1.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44001
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