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| Hinze, Jorg. |
| Das Papier untersucht die Rolle von Frühindikatoren bei der Erstellung von Konjunkturprognosen. Gegenstand der Analyse sind die Fragen: Welche Kriterien sollten Frühindikatoren generell erfüllen bzw. was sollten Frühindikatoren leisten? Inwieweit erfüllen die gängigen Indikatoren diese Anforderungen? Wie ist die Prognosegüte der verschiedenen Frühindikatoren zu beurteilen? Die theoretischen Überlegungen und ökonometrischen Untersuchungen kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass die gängigen Frühindikatoren die in sie gesetzten Erwartungen nur eingeschränkt erfüllen können. Der Verlauf einzelner Frühindikatoren lässt keine eindeutigen Schlußfolgerungen auf die reale Wirtschaftsentwicklung zu und der Vorlauf der Frühindikatoren vor der realen Entwicklung beträgt... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Konjunktur; Wirtschaftspolitik; Agricultural and Food Policy; C3; C5; E1; E3. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26253 |
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| Obi, Ajuruchukwu; van Schalkwyk, Herman D.. |
| The main objective of this paper is to report preliminary findings on the recent trends in agricultural land prices in South Africa against the backdrop of growing concerns over their rising levels. Given the important role of land prices, the impact such increases would have on significant national development efforts, including the on-going land reform programme and other aspects of agricultural restructuring, provide strong justification for this investigation. The cointegration approach was employed within a framework that allowed for both long-run and short-run dynamics of the relationships to be identified. Building on previous structural modelling of farmland prices in the country, and using much expanded time series spanning forty-nine years, it... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use; C22; E3; Q15; Q18; Q24. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25234 |
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| Weber, Sascha A.; Salamon, Petra; Hansen, Heiko. |
| Since the stepwise reduction of intervention prices combined with watered down conditions and suspended export refunds, respectively, the EU dairy industry faces new challenges regarding wild price fluctuations originally caused in third countries. In the past, the EU domestic market was insulated as far as possible from world markets. However, today global prices could affect prices even at the level of consumers, but more directly at the level milk producers. Volatility noticeable increased with the price peak in 2007, followed by the drop in 2008, and a new price boost in 2010. Additionally, reduced security in marketing of butter and skimmed milk powder led to higher processing share of cheese which is not only exported but also increasingly consumed... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Price transmission; Cointegration; Granger-causality; Dairy; Risk and Uncertainty; C1; E3; E6; F3; Q1. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122542 |
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