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AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF ENSO (EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) ON GLOBAL CROP YIELDS AgEcon
Ferris, John N..
Forecasts of global crop yields prior to planting have generally been single values, based entirely on past trends. Regression analysis testing a combination of data from ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) and ARMA models suggests that yield forecasting errors can be reduced, generating more normal distributions of these errors. Keywords: El Niño, ENSO, forecasting crop yields, long range weather forecasting, agricultural modeling, food security, risk management
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: El Niño; ENSO; Forecasting crop yields; Long range weather forecasting; Agricultural modeling; Food security; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11741
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Climate Effects on Rainfall Index Insurance Purchase Decisions AgEcon
Novak, James L.; Nadolnyak, Denis A..
Rainfall Index insurance is a pilot insurance product offered to producers of hay and pasture in 9 states. This analysis examines the expected payoff of the RI insurance for bi-monthly periods based on rainfall shortage probabilities in alternative climate phases. Differences in expected returns indicate that selection of ENSO-specific optimal intervals may result in higher returns than those based on pooled rainfall series.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Rainfall insurance; ENSO; Expected indemnity; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46834
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Designing Rainfall Insurance Contracts for Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage AgEcon
Nadolnyak, Denis A.; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
In the paper, preliminary results of the analysis of potential use of climate forecast information in designing rainfall index insurance in the southeastern region of the U.S. are reported. Joint distributions of bi-monthly rainfall and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indexes are estimated using copula analysis of historical data. The risk reducing effectiveness of introducing premiums conditional on ENSO forecast is evaluated. The results indicate some dependence of the downward volatility of rainfall on the lagged ENSO (forecast) index, particularly in the coastal areas and in the late winter and spring.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Rainfall index insurance; ENSO; Copulas; Agricultural Finance; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56511
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Determinants of Farmers' Resilience towards ENSO-Related Drought: Evidence from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia AgEcon
Keil, Alwin; Zeller, Manfred; Wida, Anastasia; Sanim, Bunasor; Birner, Regina.
Crop production in the tropics is subject to considerable climate variability caused by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. In Southeast Asia, El Niño causes comparatively dry conditions leading to substantial declines of crop yields. In concert with global warming, the frequency and severity of the phenomenon are likely to increase during the 21st century. Little is known about the impact of ENSO-related drought on the welfare of farm households in developing countries. This paper seeks to contribute to closing this knowledge gap with a case study from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Its objective is to measure household resilience towards drought periods and identify its influencing factors to deduce policy implications. Using...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: ENSO; Drought resilience; Risk management; Technical efficiency; Indonesia; Farm Management; Q54; Q12.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25592
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Eastern Tropical Pacific Climate And El Niño Variability During The Past Millennium ArchiMer
Rustic, Gerald Thomas.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been implicated in large-scale climate shifts of the past millennia, but paleoclimate records from the dynamically vital eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (EEP) spanning the past millennium are sparse. This has limited our understanding of tropical Pacific dynamics, leaving questions regarding the source of ENSO variability unanswered. Here I seek to address some of these questions regarding relationship between ENSO and tropical Pacific mean state, and the relationship between the tropical Pacific and large-scale climate. Mean EEP sea surface temperature (SST) for the past millennium was reconstructed using Mg/Ca ratios in Globigerinoides ruber from a sub-centennially resolved sediment core collected near the...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Eastern tropical pacific; ENSO; Foraminifera; Paleoceanography; Paleoclimate.
Ano: 2015 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00495/60657/64154.pdf
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Ecology of small terrestrial mammals in an isolated Cerrado patch, eastern Paraguay: communities, species, and effects of enso, precipitation, and fire Mastozool. neotrop.
Owen,Robert D.
The Cerrado extends as islands or patches into the Upper Paraná Atlantic Forest (UPAF) of Brazil and Paraguay. This study evaluates the temporal dynamics of a marginal terrestrial small-mammal community in an isolated Cerrado patch within the UPAF, at the southwestern distributional limit of the Cerrado and near the western limit of the UPAF in eastern Paraguay. Because the faunal members of marginal communities are living near the limits of their capabilities in terms of their abiotic and biotic environment, the communities in such areas are likely to be a mixture of Cerrado and UPAF species, sensitive to extrinsic variables such as climate change and anthropogenic changes in land use. In this 23-month study, temporal dynamics of a terrestrial...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Cricetidae; Didelphidae; Echimyidae; Fire; ENSO; Precipitation.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://www.scielo.org.ar/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0327-93832013000100007
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Effect of host and environment-related factors on fleas of the pichi, an armadillo from Argentina Anais da ABC (AABC)
EZQUIAGA,MARIA CECILIA; RIOS,TATIANA A.; ACTIS,ESTEBAN A.; CASSINI,GUILLERMO H.; ABBA,AGUSTIN M.; SUPERINA,MARIELLA.
Abstract The pichi (Zaedyus pichiy; Cingulata: Chlamyphoridae) is an armadillo whose ectoparasite fauna is composed of ticks and fleas. Fleas were collected from 218 pichis in southern Mendoza, Argentina, in summer and winter of 2015 and 2016. Prevalences were analyzed and differences in the intensities of the total number of fleas related to host (age, sex, weight, size and physical condition) and environment-related (seasonality and year) factors evaluated. Phthiropsylla agenoris was the only species found. Intensities of fleas were higher in 2015, in juveniles, and in males. Individuals with poor physical condition were more parasitized than those with good or normal body condition. The main explanatory variable was sampling year. This factor was...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: ENSO; Environmental conditions; Mendoza province; Phthiropsylla agenoris.
Ano: 2020 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652020000300702
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Evidences of El Niño effects on the mullet fishery of the Patos Lagoon estuary BABT
Vieira,João Paes; Garcia,Alexandre Miranda; Grimm,Alice Marlene.
Based on biological and meteorological long-term database (1979-1983 and 1996-2000), we analyzed the variation in the juvenile recruitment and artisanal fishery landings of the mullet (Mugil platanus) in the Patos Lagoon estuary and its relationships with the regional rainfall and estuarine salinity anomalies during two strong El Niño events (1982-83 and 1997-98). Juvenile and adult mullets declined in abundance under the high rainfall and near-zero salinity that prevailed in the estuary during both El Niño events. We proposed two different hypotheses to explain the El Niño-induced effects on the juvenile and adult stages of the mullet in the estuary. First, high freshwater outflow during a very strong El Niño might render ineffective the mechanism of...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Artisanal fishery; ENSO; Climatic effects; Long-term studies; PELD; LTER.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1516-89132008000200025
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Flood Planning and Climate Forecasts at the Local Level AgEcon
Wernstedt, Kris; Hersh, Robert.
We examine the use of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts for flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. Using theories of resource mobilization as a conceptual foundation, the paper relies on: 1) case studies of three communities vulnerable to flooding that have had access to long-term forecasts of ENSO conditions; and 2) analysis of data collected from a survey of nearly 60 local emergency managers, planners, and public works staff. We find that understanding the regulatory machinery and other institutions involved in using climate forecasts is critical to more effective use of these forecasts. Forecast use could be promoted by: 1) an extension service to broker climate information; 2) the identification or creation of federal authorities to fund...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Flooding; ENSO; La Nina; Climate variability; Climate forecast; Natural hazards; Water policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q2.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10813
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From Scientific Speculation to Effective Adaptive Management: A case study of the role of social marketing in promoting novel restoration strategies for degraded dry lands Ecology and Society
Westley, Frances; Social Innovation Generation, University of Waterloo ; fwestley@watarts.uwaterloo.ca; Holmgren, Milena; Forest Ecology and Forest Management, Department of Environmental Sciences; Milena.Holmgren@wur.nl; Scheffer, Marten; Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Department of Environment; Marten.Scheffer@wur.nl.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Climate fluctuations; Dryland restoration; Ecosystem restoration; ENSO; Herbivory control; Matorral; Mediterranean shrub land; Reforestation; Social entrepreneur; Social marketing; Stakeholder..
Ano: 2010
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Impacts of climatic anomalies on provisioning strategies of a Southern Ocean predator ArchiMer
Lea, Mary-anne; Guinet, Christophe; Cherel, Yves; Duhamel, Guy; Dubroca, Laurent; Pruvost, Patrice; Hindell, Mark.
The large temporal and spatial variability in marine productivity encountered by marine predators may negatively influence breeding success. The Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus gazella (AFS), a marine predator in the Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystem with a circumpolar distribution, exhibits a short, 4 mo lactation coinciding with increased summer marine productivity. The diet of AFS, and the distance to significant and productive oceanographic features, such as the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone (PFZ), varies considerably between populations. We studied the foraging activity, foraging efficiency and the pup provisioning strategies of lactating AFS at a key breeding site in the southern Indian Ocean, the Kerguelen Archipelago. Foraging parameters were examined...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Antarctic fur seal; Polar front; Pinniped; ENSO; Foraging; Growth; Diving; Seabird; Myctophid; Maternal care.
Ano: 2006 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00247/35847/34356.pdf
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Late quaternary paleoceanography of the French Guiana continental shelf: Clay-mineral evidence ArchiMer
Pujos, M; Latouche, C; Maillet, N.
Marine muds deposited on the French Guiana coast mostly originate in the Amazon. Recent sediments are composed of (a) illite (33 %) and chlorite (13 %) of Andean mountain origin; and (b) kaolinite (28 %) and smectite (26 %), principally from the Amazonian lowlands but also from the Guiana Shield. In the coastal mud prism, high-resolution seismic profiles, together with sedimentological, micropaleontological and soil engineering studies, supplemented by C-14 dates, permitted a stratigraphic interpretation of eight cores. Three episodes have been determined on the basis of clay-mineral variations related to Amazonian lowland, Andean and Guiana shield sources. The older episodes 3 (3000-1700 y BP) and 2 (1700-1000 y BP) are predominantly characterized by...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Late quaternary; French Guiana; Shelf; Clay minerals; ENSO.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00094/20506/18175.pdf
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Marine Environmental Regionalization for the Beibu Gulf Based on a Physical-Biological Model ArchiMer
Pan, Huanglei; Yu, Xiaolong; Liu, Dishi; Shi, Dalin; Yang, Shengyun; Pan, Weiran.
A physical–biological ocean model was employed to investigate characteristics of the Beibu Gulf in the northwest South China Sea (SCS) from 2011 to 2015. We adopted the spatially constrained multivariate clustering method to determine the refined marine environmental regionalization using 10 variables from the model output, and compared regionalization differences in ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) years. The simulated physical and biochemical variables display a wide spectrum of patterns in space and time. The regionalization maps indicated that the Qiongzhou Strait and its adjacent area can be classified as a separate region, characterized by the rich presence of nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus, owing to the water invasion from...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Beibu Gulf; Physical-biological model; Regionalization; Multivariate clustering; ENSO.
Ano: 2021 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00679/79109/81600.pdf
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Mitigating the impact of El Nino-related drought on smallholder farmers in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia: An interdisciplinary modelling approach combining linear programming with stochastic simulation AgEcon
Keil, Alwin; Teufel, Nils; Gunawan, Dodo; Leemhuis, Constanze.
Crop production in the tropics is subject to considerable climate variability caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. In Southeast Asia, El Niño causes comparatively dry conditions leading to substantial declines of crop yields with severe consequences for the welfare of local farm households. Using a modelling approach that combines regression analysis with linear programming and stochastic simulation, and integrates climatic and hydrologic modelling results, the objective of this paper is to assess the impact of El Niño on agricultural incomes of smallholder farmers in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, and to identify suitable crop management strategies to mitigate the income depressions. The results contribute to the formulation of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: ENSO; Risk management; Linear programming; Stochastic simulation; Indonesia; Farm Management.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7942
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NDVI and meteorological data as indicators of the Pampa biome natural grasslands growth Bragantia
Fontana,Denise Cybis; Junges,Amanda Heemann; Bremm,Carolina; Schaparini,Laura Pigatto; Mengue,Vagner Paz; Wagner,Ana Paula Luz; Carvalho,Paulo.
ABSTRACT The present study aimed to characterize the dynamics of NDVI and meteorological conditions, relating both to the annual dynamics of biomass accumulation in natural pastures of the Pampa biome as a way of subsidizing growth modeling. Forage accumulation rate data from a long-term experiment, NDVI data from the MODIS images, and meteorological data measured at the surface were used. We verify that the agrometeorological element associated to the accumulation of forage in the natural grasslands is different according to the season, which is typical of the subtropical climate. Winter is the critical season for livestock production due to the lower forage accumulation rate and lower values of NDVI, conditioned by the decrease of solar radiation and air...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Biomass accumulation; ENSO; MODIS; Ground data.
Ano: 2018 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052018000200404
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Northwest African upwelling scenario ArchiMer
Hagen, E.
Observations, hypotheses and derived scenarios are discussed for the Northwest-African coastal upwelling area. The process of coastal upwelling is considered to be composed of a climatic steady-state part and fluctuations acting on different spatial and temporal scales. Attention is focused on disturbances acting globally on the inter-annual time-scale. EI Nino-like changes occur in the system of trade winds and modify the equatorial regime of currents as well as the coastal upwelling regimes on both flanks of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. There is an opposite thermal response in near-surface layers along the zonal coast in the Gulf of Guinea and along the meridional coast off NW-Africa. Off the continental slope of Senegal and Mauritania, the...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Afrique occidentale; Alizé du nord-est; Upwelling côtier; Sous-courant sud-nord; ENSO; Northwest Africa; Northeast trade wind; Coastal upwelling; Poleward undercurrent; ENSO.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00291/40269/38645.pdf
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On the influences of the El Niño, La niña and Atlantic Dipole Paterni on the Amazonian Rainfall during 1960-1998 Acta Amazonica
SOUZA,Everaldo B de; KAYANO,Mary T; TOTA,Julio; PEZZI,Luciano; FISCH,Gilberto; NOBRE,Carlos.
The influence of the large-scale climatic variability dominant modes in the Pacific and in the Atlantic on Amazonian rainfall is investigated. The composite technique of the Amazon precipitation anomalies is used in this work. The basis years for these composites arc those in the period 1960-1998 with occurrences of extremes in the Southern Oscillation (El Niño or La Niña) and the north/south warm (or cold) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies dipole pattern in the tropical Atlantic. Warm (cold) dipole means positive (negative) anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic and negative (positive) anomalies in the tropical South Atlantic. Austral summer and autumn composites for extremes in the Southern Oscillation (El Niño or La Niña) and independently for...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Seasonal rainfall; ENSO; Amazon; SST anomalous north-south dipole in the Atlantic; Chuva sazonal; ENOS; Amazônia; Dipolo norte-sul de anomalias de TSM.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0044-59672000000200305
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Processes of interannual mixed layer temperature variability in the thermocline ridge of the Indian Ocean ArchiMer
Praveen Kumar, B.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Murty, V. S. N.; Foltz, G. R.; Mcphaden, M. J.; Pous, S.; De Boyer Montegut, Clement.
Sea-surface temperature interannual anomalies (SSTAs) in the thermocline ridge of the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (TRIO) have several well-documented climate impacts. In this paper, we explore the physical processes responsible for SSTA evolution in the TRIO region using a combination of observational estimates and model-derived surface layer heat budget analyses. Vertical oceanic processes contribute most to SSTA variance from December to June, while lateral advection dominates from July to November. Atmospheric fluxes generally damp SSTA generation in the TRIO region. As a result of the phase opposition between the seasonal cycle of vertical processes and lateral advection, there is no obvious peak in SSTA amplitude in boreal winter, as previously...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Thermocline ridge of the Indian Ocean; Surface temperature interannual variability; ENSO; IOD.
Ano: 2014 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00185/29642/28051.pdf
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Reduced-dimension reconstruction of the equatorial Pacific SST and zonal wind fields over the past 10,000years using Mg/Ca and alkenone records ArchiMer
Gill, Emily C.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Molnar, Peter; Marchitto, Thomas M..
We develop a multiproxy, reduced-dimension methodology to blend magnesium-calcium (Mg/Ca) and alkenone (U 37k) paleo sea surface temperature (SST) records from the eastern and western equatorial Pacific, to recreate snapshots of full field SSTs and zonal winds from 10 to 2ka B.P. in 2000year increments. Single-proxy reconstructions (Mg/Ca only versus U 37K only) reveal differences in the timing and duration of maximum cooling across the east-central equatorial Pacific. The largest zonal temperature differences (average west Pacific SST minus average east Pacific SST) occur at 6ka B.P. for the Mg/Ca-only reconstruction (0.61 degrees C) and at 10 and 4ka for the U 37K-only reconstruction (0.55 degrees C and 0.47 degrees C, respectively). Disagreements...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Sea surface temperatures; ENSO; Holocene; Multiproxy field reconstruction; Equatorial Pacific; Reduced-dimension.
Ano: 2016 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00421/53232/54785.pdf
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SMOS reveals the signature of Indian Ocean Dipole events ArchiMer
Durand, F; Alory, Gael; Dussin, Raphael; Reul, Nicolas.
The tropical Indian Ocean experiences an interannual mode of climatic variability, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The signature of this variability in ocean salinity is hypothesized based on modeling and assimilation studies, on account of scanty observations. Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite has been designed to take up the challenge of sea surface salinity remote sensing. We show that SMOS data can be used to infer the pattern of salinity variability linked with the IOD events. The core of maximum variability is located in the central tropical basin, south of the equator. This region is anomalously salty during the 2010 negative IOD event, and anomalously fresh during the 2011 positive IOD event. The peak-to-peak anomaly exceeds...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: SSS; Indian Ocean Dipole; SMOS; ARGO; ENSO.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00161/27234/25481.pdf
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