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	Provedor de dados 31 (3) 5 (2) Autor Ubilava, David (3) Alory, G (1) Beaufort, Luc (1) Delcroix, T (1) Grelaud, Michael (1) Helmers, Claes Gustav (1) Holt, Matthew T. (1) Tack, Jesse B. (1) Mais... Palavra-chave El Nino Southern Oscillation (5) Environmental Economics and Policy (3) Demand and Price Analysis (2) Research Methods/ Statistical Methods (2) C32 (1) Centennial climatic variability (1) Climate (1) Climatic variability (1) Cocoa Prices (1) Crop Production/Industries (1) El Niño Oscillation Australe (1) Maximum Entropy (1) Out-of-Sample Forecasting (1) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (1) Past climate variability (1) Production Economics (1) Q11 (1) Q54 (1) Risk Management (1) Samoa (1) Mais... Tipo do documento Conference Paper or Presentation (2) Text (2) Presentation (1) Ano 2017 (1) 2012 (1) 2011 (1) 2009 (1) 1999 (1) País United States (3) France (2) Idioma Inglês (5)		Ordenar por:  Relevância Autor Título Ano Registros recuperados: 5 Primeira ... 1 ... Última A 2700-year record of ENSO and PDO variability from the Californian margin based on coccolithophore assemblages and calcification 5 Beaufort, Luc; Grelaud, Michael. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) account for a large part of modern climate variability. Over the last decades, understanding of these modes of climate variability has increased but prediction in the context of global warming has proven difficult because of the lack of pertinent and reproducible paleodata. Here, we infer the dynamics of these oscillations from fossil assemblage and calcification state of coccolithophore in the Californian margin because El Niño has a strong impact on phytoplankton ecology and PDO on the upwelling intensity and hence on the ocean chemistry. Intense Californian upwelling brings water rich in CO2 and poor in carbonate ions and coccolithophores secrete lower calcified... Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: El Nino Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; Past climate variability; Santa Barbara Basin; Solar cycles; Centennial climatic variability. Ano: 2017 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00377/48848/49280.pdf Climatic variability in the vicinity of Wallis, Futuna, and Samoa islands (13 degrees-15 degrees S, 180 degrees-170 degrees W) 5 Alory, G; Delcroix, T. h-lean conditions, seasonal, and ENSO-related (El Nine Southern Oscillation) variability in the vicinity of Wallis, Futuna, and Samoa islands (13 degrees-15 degrees S, 180 degrees-170 degrees W) over the 1973-1995 period are analysed for wind pseudostress, satellite-derived and in situ precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS), sea level, and 0-450 m temperature and geostrophic current. The mean local conditions reflect the presence of the large scale features such as the western Pacific warm pool, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), and the South Pacific anticyclonic gyre. The seasonal changes are closely related to the meridional migrations of the SPCZ, which passes twice a year over the region of study. During the warm phase... Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Wallis et Futuna; Samoa; El Niño Oscillation Australe; Variabilité climatique; Wallis and Futuna; Samoa; El Nino Southern Oscillation; Climatic variability. Ano: 1999 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00325/43608/43913.pdf Nonlinearities in the World Vegetable Oil Price System: El Nino Effects 31 Ubilava, David; Holt, Matthew T.. In this research we estimate the effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over time on market dynamics for eight major vegetable oil prices. We estimate a system for vegetable oil prices by using a smooth transition vector error correction model (STVECM) to analyze impacts of ENSO events on production, and, more interestingly, their asymmetric nature. The results of estimated Exponential STVECM and Quadratic STAR models, respectively for the system of oil price equations and the ENSO variable regressions, suggest a smooth transition between ENSO regimes, and provide a better overall fit to the data than do linear models. Effects of the ENSO shock are analyzed using generalized impulse-response functions (GIRFs). The non-linear nature of these shocks... Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Smooth Transition; Vector Error Correction; El Nino Southern Oscillation; Vegetable Oil Prices; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49360 The Effect of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on U.S. Corn Production and Downside Risk 31 Tack, Jesse B.; Ubilava, David. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections imply anomalous weather conditions around the globe, causing yield shortages, price changes, and even civil unrests. Extreme ENSO events may cause catastrophic damages to crop yields, thus amplifying downside risk for producers. This study presents a framework for quantifying the effects of climate on crop yield distributions. An empirical application provides estimates of the effect that ENSO events have on the means of U.S. county-level corn yield distributions, as well as the probabilities of catastrophic crop loss. Our findings demonstrate that ENSO events strongly influence these probabilities systematically over large production regions, which has important implications for research and policy... Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate; El Nino Southern Oscillation; Maximum Entropy; Risk Management; Yield Distribution; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Production Economics. Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119785 The ENSO Impact on Predicting World Cocoa Prices 31 Ubilava, David; Helmers, Claes Gustav. Cocoa beans are produced in equatorial and sub-equatorial regions of West Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. These are also the regions most affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- a climatic anomaly affecting temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world. Thus, ENSO, has a potential of affecting cocoa production and, subsequently, prices on the world market. This study investigates the benefits of using a measure of ENSO variable in world cocoa price forecasting through the application of a smooth transition autoregression (STAR) modeling framework to monthly data to examine potentially nonlinear dynamics of ENSO and cocoa prices. The results indicate that the nonlinear models appear to outperform linear models in terms of... Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cocoa Prices; El Nino Southern Oscillation; Out-of-Sample Forecasting; Smooth Transition Autoregression; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C32; Q11; Q54. Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103528 Registros recuperados: 5 Primeira ... 1 ... Última

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