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| Berck, Peter; Perloff, Jeffrey M.. |
| How potential entrants to an open-access fishery form their expectations determines the fishery’s adjustment path to a steady state but not the steady state values themselves. It is well known that, in the standard model with myopic expectations (those based on current values), boats enter the fishery only when the fish stock is greater than its steady state stock. We show that, with rational expectations (perfect foresight), however, boats may enter when the fish stock is much lower than its steady state value if the boat fleet is sufficiently small. This paper contrasts myopic and rational expectations within a general dynamic model of an open-access fishery. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Economic aspects; Expectations; Fisheries. |
| Ano: 1982 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42856 |
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| Nuppenau, Ernst-August. |
| This paper deals with a control theory approach to stabilize cyclical price movements. Firstly, we pursue a welfare economist’s approach, delineating a public objective function derived from consumer and producer surplus as well as trade budget at world market price. Trade is a con¬trol variable and the market price is a state variable. Moreover we assume adaptive formation of price expectation at the producer side. Secondly the control problem is outline and solved by discrete control theory. Thirdly, the paper makes suggestions how to translate the optimal control framework and results into a trade policy of the envisaged country. Finally, limitations are discussed and an outlook for broadening the concept for international concerns is offered. |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Dynamic control; Expectations; Cyclical prices; Stabilization policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C54; C61; F61.. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122467 |
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| Wang, Kai-Li; Barrett, Christopher B.. |
| This paper takes a new empirical look at the long-standing question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan's exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral-level, monthly data and an innovative multivariate GARCH-M estimator with corrections for leptokurtic errors. This estimator allows for the possibility that traders' forward-looking contracting behavior might condition the way in which exchange rate movement and associated risk affect trade volumes. Change in importing country industrial production and change in the expected exchange rate are found to jointly drive the trade volumes. More strikingly, monthly exchange rate volatility affects agricultural trade... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Exchange rate; Expectations; GARCH; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8643 |
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| Brisbois, Jason; Emter, Nicholas A.; Frost, Jean; Gibbins, Dan; Marcil, Jacques. |
| The online Western Economic Expectations survey solicits views on the future economic performance of the western provinces and the country from over 2,000 economists and financial analysts who are closest to the working details of the Western Canadian economy. The survey covers people who use economics in their work, in universities and colleges, industry associations, economic development agencies, the private sector and the public service across Western Canada. The survey is conducted through a partnership between Alberta’s two premier economic and policy research centres, the Canada West Foundation in Calgary and the Western Centre for Economic Research at the University of Alberta’s School of Business in Edmonton, It is the only survey that solicits... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Western Economy; Economic expectations; Economists; Survey; Expectations; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Political Economy; Public Economics. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60405 |
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