SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Massetti, Emanuele; Sferra, Fabio.

We introduce endogenous investments for increasing conventional and non-conventional oil extraction capacity in the integrated assessment model WITCH. The international price of oil emerges as the Nash equilibrium of a non-cooperative game. When carbon emissions are not constrained, oil is used throughout the century, with unconventional oil taking over conventional oil from mid-century onward. When carbon emissions are constrained, oil consumption drops dramatically and the oil price is lower than in the BaU. Unconventional oil is not extracted. Regional imbalances in the distribution of stabilisation costs are magnified and the oil-exporting countries bear, on average, costs three times larger than in previous estimates.

Agricultural trade liberalisation in the Doha Round: impacts on Spain

Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Integrated Assessment; Oil Production; Oil Revenues; Oil Trade; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; E17; F17; Q32; Q43; Q54.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96495

Allowing for Group Effects When Estimating Import Demand for Source and Product Differentiated Goods

Philippidis, George.

Whilst there is a growing literature of computable general equilibrium (CGE) studies examining the impacts of the current Doha Proposals, estimates for the EU are highly aggregated (i.e., EU15). Employing a detailed baseline scenario and a plausible Doha outcome, we examine the long run costs for the European Union, in particular focusing on Spain. Moreover, we implement recent CAP reforms through explicitly modelling of CAP mechanisms to provide greater credibility in assessing the long run asymmetric budgetary and welfare impacts on EU member states. Our estimates forecast resource substitution effects between Spanish agro-food sectors and resource shifts from agro-food activities into manufacturing and services production. In Spain, the impacts of...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Doha Round; Spain; EU; CAP; Computable General Equilibrium.; F1; F13; F17; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28790

Muhammad, Andrew.

In this study an import demand model (differential production model) is presented that is used in estimating the demand for source and product differentiated goods simultaneously. Unlike the traditional import demand models, this model can account for changes in relative group expenditures. Expenditure estimates differed when comparing the differential production model and Rotterdam model results. Results showed that if group revenue shares are relatively fixed, then the bias in expenditure estimates due to omitting group effects will be small when using traditional demand models such as the AIDS or Rotterdam models. As relative group shares significantly change and diverge the bias increases, particularly for imports representing a larger share of group...

An Economic Analysis of Mountain Pine Beetle Impact in a Global Context

Palavras-chave: Import demand; AIDS model; Rotterdam model; Product differentiation; Source differentiation; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; F17; Q17; Q11..

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6364

Abbott, Brant; Stennes, Brad; van Kooten, G. Cornelis.

The economic effects of the mountain pine beetle outbreak in British Columbia are simulated using a multi-region spatial price equilibrium model coupled with a stochastic dynamic updating procedure. The simulation captures expected changes in the B.C. timber supply, growth of plantation forests in the southern hemisphere and an escalating Russian log export tax. The results indicate lumber and log prices will rise in B.C., offsetting some of the economic loss to timber producers. However, on net producers in the B.C. forest industry will experience a decrease in economic surplus.

An EU-Canada bilateral trade agreement: A DefraTAP application

Palavras-chave: Mountain pine beetle; Spatial price equilibrium; Trade modeling; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; C67; F14; F17.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37051

Kitou, Elisavet; Philippidis, George.

The first round of negotiations held in Ottawa on the 19th October, 2009, heralded the opening of bilateral trade talks intent on reaching a Canadian-European Union (EU27) free trade area (FTA) agreement. A second round of negotiations were staged in Brussels in January, whilst further rounds are scheduled for 2010, with the longer term aim of ratifying an agreement within 24-30 months. Although stumbling blocs will be encountered, the divergent political interests of each region are compatible. In Canada, a FTA with its second largest trading partner offers a viable alternative to its current overdependence on the US. Similarly, the EU27 sees an opportunity to regain a competitive foothold in the North American market. This paper re-examines the long run...

Are The Poverty Effects of Trade Policies Invisible?

Palavras-chave: EU27; Canada; Economic integration; Sensitive products; International Relations/Trade; C68; F11; F15; F17.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91679

Verma, Monika; Valenzuela, Ernesto; Hertel, Thomas W..

With the advent of the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda, as well as the Millennium Development Goals aiming to reduce poverty by 50 percent by 2015, poverty impacts of trade reforms have attracted increasing attention. This has been particularly true of agricultural trade reform due to the importance of food in the diets of the poor, relatively higher protection in agriculture, as well as the heavy concentration of global poverty in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of income. Yet some in this debate have argued that, given the extreme volatility in agricultural commodity markets, the additional price and poverty impacts due to trade liberalization might well be undetectable. This paper formally tests this “invisibility hypothesis” via...

Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza Related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare

Palavras-chave: Trade policy reform; Agricultural trade; Computable general equilibrium; Developing countries; Poverty headcount; Volatility; Stochastic simulation; Non-parametric hypothesis testing; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C68; F17; I32; Q17; R20.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61793

Wieck, Christine; Schlueter, Simon W.; Britz, Wolfgang.

We use two methodological approaches to analyze avian influenza related quarantine measures. First, a Heckman type gravity model is used to estimate the trade impact and second, a spatial partial equilibrium simulation model is developed to simulate welfare changes. The simulation model considers spread and transmission risk according to the disease status of the importing country as well as parameter uncertainty of the calibrated coefficients by using a Monte Carlo approach. The econometric results show that the principle of regionalization is preferred to import trade bans for uncooked meat. The simulation results verify the negative welfare impact of currently implemented regulatory policies and indicate that significant trade diversion effects...

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Animal disease; Quarantine measure; Non-tariff measure; Welfare; Gravity model; Simulation model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; F14; F17; Q11; Q17; Q18.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122022

Cattle Trade and the Risk of Importing Animal Diseases into the Netherlands

Achterbosch, Thom J.; Dopfer, Dorte D.V.; Tabeau, Andrzej A..

Projections of live cattle trade in the EU-25 assist to reduce the uncertainty on the risk of importing animal diseases in the Netherlands. The accession of 10 member states to the European Union has a potentially large impact on livestock trade in the EU as it liberalized in one stroke a trade that was administered by the Management Committee for Beef until May 1, 2004. The approach combines AG-Memod partial equilibrium with GTAP general equilibrium modelling in order to estimate the impact of quota liberalization. Quota removal will substantially alter the regional structure of livestock imports, as the share of new EU member states in the east triples to 25%. The risk outlook indicates a need for enhanced animal health services in the new member states.

Climate change and food security to 2030: a global economy-wide perspective

Palavras-chave: Livestock; Animal disease; Trade; Projections; Quota; EU-enlargement; Risk and Uncertainty; F17; I18; Q17.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24558

Valenzuela, Ernesto; Anderson, Kym.

The effects of climate change on agriculture raise major food security concerns. We use a global economy-wide model to assess the effects on farm product prices of expected yield changes. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results entail consequences for international agricultural prices, national food consumption, self sufficiency, net farm income and economic welfare.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Climate change; Crop and labor productivity growth; Global economy-wide model projections; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty; D58; F17; Q17; Q24; Q54.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117616

Climate Change and Food Security to 2050: A Global Economy-wide Perspective

Valenzuela, Ernesto; Anderson, Kym.

Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses the GTAP global economy-wide model to capture at the same time the expected positive effects on temperate zone crop productivity, which will more or less offset the upward pressure on farm product prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity on the productivity of unskilled workers in the tropics, but since they work in nonfarm as well as farm activities the net effect of that shock on agriculture’s competitiveness is an empirical matter....

Competition between the U.S. and West Africa in International Cotton Trade: A Focus on Import Demand in China

Palavras-chave: Climate change; Crop and labour productivity growth; Global computable general equilibrium model projections; Productivity Analysis; D58; F17; Q17; Q24; Q54.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100531

Muhammad, Andrew; McPhail, Lihong Lu; Kiawu, James.

We estimate the demand for imported cotton in China and assess the competitiveness of cotton-exporting countries. Given the assertion that African cotton producers are ill affected by U.S. cotton subsidies, our focus is the price competition between the C4 countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali) and United States in China. Demand estimates are used to project how U.S. prices affect China’s imports by country. In comparing demand projections, results show that the relationship between the United States and the C4 has more to do with how U.S. prices can affect global prices rather than any substitute or competitive relationship in the Chinese market.

Do U.S. Cotton Subsidies Affect Competing Exporters? An Analysis of Import Demand in China

Palavras-chave: Africa; China; Cotton; Demand; Imports; United States; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; F17; Q11; Q17.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103210

Muhammad, Andrew; McPhail, Lihong Lu; Kiawu, James.

We estimate the demand for imported cotton in China and assess the competitiveness of cotton-exporting countries. Given the assertion that developing countries are negatively affected by U.S. cotton subsidies, our focus is the price competition between the United States and competing exporters (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, India, and Uzbekistan). We further project how U.S. programs affect China’s imports by country. Results indicate that if U.S. subsidies make other exporting countries worse off, this effect is lessened when global prices respond accordingly. If subsidies are eliminated, China’s cotton imports may not fully recover from the temporary spike in global prices.

Tipo: Article

Palavras-chave: China; Cotton; Import demand; Rotterdam model; Subsidies; United States; West Africa; International Relations/Trade; F17; Q11; Q17.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123786

EU Trade Policies: Benchmarking Protection in a General Equilibrium Framework

Antimiani, Alessandro; Salvatici, Luca.

This paper deals with the EU's trade policy with two objectives: on the one hand, we study the performance of EU's preferential agreements in granting their partners improved market access; on the other hand, we assess the extent to which domestic sectors are effectively protected. As far as the first objective is concerned, we construct bilateral indicators of protection based on the applied tariffs faced by each exporter. In order to do this, an index of trade policy restrictiveness is computed, using the Mercantilistic Trade Restrictiveness Index as the tariff aggregator. We also analyze the protection granted to each sector by the existing tariff structure. In this report, we compute effective rates of protection that overcome the well-known...

Extending General Equilibrium to the Tariff Line: U.S. Dairy in the DOHA Development Agenda

Palavras-chave: Protection; Commercial policy; GTAP model; International trade; International Relations/Trade; F13; Q17; F17.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18856

Grant, Jason H.; Hertel, Thomas W.; Rutherford, Thomas F..

Market access has been at the core of eight negotiating rounds of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Yet, agricultural trade remains a heavily protected sector, characterized by higher tariffs relative to industrial goods, large tariff dispersions, numerous specific tariffs and systems of tariff-rate-quotas. This has made the analysis of trade liberalization a formidable task among policy analysts. Previous studies of agricultural trade liberalization have used partial or general equilibrium models of trade. However, each of these modeling strategies has their drawbacks. General equilibrium (GE) models have been criticized because they face serious aggregation issues and miss much of the policy detail that occurs at the tariff line. Partial...

Global food markets by 2030: What roles for farm TFP growth and trade policies?

Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Mixed-complementarity problem; Partial equilibrium; General equilibrium; Doha Development Agenda; WTO; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; F01; F17; Q17; Q18.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25305

Anderson, Kym; Strutt, Anna.

Rapid trade-led economic growth in emerging Asia has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade but also altering the commodity composition of trade by Asia and other regions. What began with Japan in the 1950s and Korea and Taiwan from the late 1960s has spread to the much more populous ASEAN region, China and India. This paper examines how that growth and associated structural changes are altering agricultural markets in particular and thereby food security. It does so retrospectively and by projecting a model of the world economy which compares alternative growth strategies, trade policy scenarios and savings behaviors to 2030. Projected impacts on...

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: Global economy-wide model projections; Asian economic growth and structural change; South-South trade; Booming sector economics; Food security; International Relations/Trade; Marketing; D58; F13; F15; F17; Q17.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124192

How does tariff-rate quota modelling affect CGE results? An application for MIRAGE

Decreux, Yvan; Ramos, Maria Priscila.

Since the Uruguay Round Agricultural Agreement (URAA) entered into force in 1994, tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) have become the most widely used trade policy instrument to improve agricultural market access while at the same time controlling import volumes. Until now, the MIRAGE CGE model only takes into account the exogenous quota rents (MAcMap-HS6 database) allocated entirely to exporters. Unfortunately, this methodology does not authorise any regime when trade policy changes (e.g. a quota-volume increase for very sensitive agricultural products or a tariff reduction). In order to improve the treatment of TRQs in MIRAGE we model them as bilateral TRQs at the HS6 level using MAcMapHS6-v2 database. Assuming a simple scenario of bilateral trade agreement...

Imports in the Washington State Economy: Importance and Regional Effects of Import Liberalization

Palavras-chave: Tariff-rate quota; TRQ; TRQ administration methods; CGE model; MIRAGE; International Relations/Trade; F13; F15; F17; Q17.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7206

Wieck, Christine; Wahl, Thomas I..

This paper focuses on the import side of a regional economy quantifying the economic impact of import levels and trade liberalization. An innovation represents the linkage of a regional with a national model by combining two separate Computable General Equilibrium models into one framework. This allows for import price formation in liberalization scenarios on the national level and subsequent incorporation of these nationally simulated prices into the regional model. The regional model is applied to Washington State, one of the most trade dependent states of the U.S, the national model to the U.S. Data for the two identically structured models origin from the IMPLAN database which divides the U.S. and Washington economy into 509 industries. For both...

Increasing the United States Tariff-Rate Sugar Quota for Cuba and Mexico: A Partial-Equilibrium Simulation

Palavras-chave: Computable General equilibrium; Regional modelling; Trade liberalization; International Relations/Trade; C68; R13; F17.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9861

Petrolia, Daniel R.; Kennedy, P. Lynn.

Increases in the United States tariff-rate quota for sugar are simulated to determine the impact of Cuban market access and an increased Mexican allotment. The effects on both domestic and international sugar markets, including production, consumption, prices and trade, are determined and welfare effects identified. This analysis is carried out using a partial-equilibrium simplified world trade model, Modele International Simplifie de Simulation (MISS), which simulates, in a comparative-static framework, the effects of various policy actions.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Cuba; Mexico; Sugar; Tariff-rate quota; F13; F17; Q17.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43200

International Rice Baseline with Deterministic and Stochastic Projections, 2012-2021

Wailes, Eric J.; Chavez, Eddie C..

This publication contains recent baseline projections from the Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program (AGREP) for U.S. and international rice economies. These projections serve as a baseline for evaluating and comparing alternative macroeconomic, policy, weather, and technological scenarios. They are intended for use by government agencies and officials, farmers, consumers, agribusinesses and others who conduct medium-range and long-term planning. The AGREP baseline projections are grounded in a series of assumptions about the general economy, agricultural policies, weather, and technological change. It is generally assumed that current agricultural policies will be continued in the United States and other countries reported in this study. The AGREP World...

Tipo: Technical Report

Palavras-chave: International rice; Baseline; Policy; Deterministic; Stochastic; Arkansas Global Rice Model; Demand and Price Analysis; Land Economics/Use; C02; F01; F14; F17; Q17; Q18; R11.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123203

International Trade and Competitiveness of Lake Victoria Fillets in the EU

Muhammad, Andrew.

Given the importance of EU demand for chilled fish fillets to the exporting sectors in Tanzania and Uganda, this study estimated the EUs import demand for fillets by country of origin to assess the competitiveness of exporters. Results imply that prices in Tanzania and Uganda had an insignificant impact on total imports expenditures in the EU. Conditional and unconditional cross-price effects indicated that exports from Lake Victoria did not compete with exports from other suppliers, such as Iceland, Norway and ROW. Import demand forecasts showed that market share in the EU should remain relatively unchanged given the trend in prices.