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A Prediction Model of Peasants’ Income in China Based on BP Neural Network AgEcon
Guo, Qing-chun; He, Zhen-fang; Li, Li; Kong, Ling-jun; Zhang, Xiao-yong; Kou, Li-qun.
According to the related data affecting the peasants’ income in China in the years 1978-2008, a total of 13 indices are selected, such as agricultural population, output value of primary industry, and rural employees. According to standardized method and BP neural network method, the peasants’ income and the artificial neural network model are established and analyzed. Results show that the simulation value agrees well with the real value; the neural network model with improved BP algorithm has high prediction accuracy, rapid convergence rate and good generalization ability. Finally, suggestions are put forward to increase the peasants’ income, such as promoting the process of urbanization, developing small and medium-sized enterprises in rural areas,...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: BP Neural Network; Peasants’ income; Forecast; China; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/113491
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An Analysis of Global Timber Markets AgEcon
Sohngen, Brent; Mendelsohn, Robert; Sedjo, Roger A.; Lyon, Kenneth S..
This paper presents a model of global timber markets that captures the evolution of a broad array of forest resources and timber market margins over time. These margins include the inaccessible northern and tropical margins, plantation establishment, and timberland management. A baseline case is presented and discussed. Five alternative scenarios are then presented. These scenarios allow us to consider several important questions about timber market behavior and the future supply of industrial fiber: (1) What happens along the northern and the tropical inaccessible margins? (2) What role do timber plantations play? and (3) How do shifts in management intensity interact with market forces? The baseline case suggests that both prices and harvests rise over...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Global timber markets; Forest plantations; Model; Forecast; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q10; Q21; Q23; Q24.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10449
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ANÁLISE DE QUEBRA ESTRUTURAL E PREVISÃO DO PREÇO DO FEIJÃO RECEBIDO PELO PRODUTOR NO BRASIL AgEcon
Teixeira, Gibran da Silva; Pinto, Pablo Aurelio Lacerda De Almeida.
Neste artigo realiza-se uma análise de quebra estrutural e uma previsão para o preço médio mensal do feijão (recebido pelo produtor brasileiro) a partir de uma série temporal que compreende o período janeiro/1996 - dezembro/2007. Os resultados demonstraram que a série em questão apresenta uma quebra estrutural no período referente a outubro de 1999, fator este que levou ao corte da mesma, sendo considerado na análise o intervalo de janeiro de 2000 a dezembro de 2007, totalizando 96 observações. Para a previsão, adota-se a metodologia Box-Jenkins, identifica-se para tal previsão o método autorregressivo integrado com média móvel (ARIMA). Verifica-se por meio de uma previsão ex-ante, fundamentada nos dados amostrais, um aumento no preço futuro do produto...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Preço do Feijão; Quebra Estrutural; Previsão; Beans Price; Structural Broke; Forecast; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/106109
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ANALYSIS OF THE 2002 FARM BILL AND NEW FARM BILL ALTERNATIVES AgEcon
Taylor, Richard D.; Koo, Won W..
This report evaluates the 2002 farm bill and the effects of the individual programs within the bill on North Dakota net farm income. A stochastic simulation model was developed, using @Risk by Palisade. @Risk replaces the mean values for price and yield with a distribution of values for the eight major commodities grown in North Dakota. The counter-cyclical (target price) program, marketing loan program, and federal crop insurance benefits were separated and analyzed to determine which components were the most important to North Dakota producers. The U.S. Trade Representative offered to decrease the country's trade distorting subsidies by 60% if the European Union would lower its export subsidies 75%. The study estimates the impact of that plan....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Risk; Farm bill; North Dakota; Forecast; Domestic subsidies; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23524
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Determinantes e previsão da taxa de câmbio nominal: uma aplicação do modelo de paridade da taxa de juros atrelado ao mercado monetário, 1999-2004 AgEcon
Cassuce, Francisco Carlos da Cunha; Mattos, Leonardo Bornacki de; Campos, Antonio Carvalho.
The present work looked for to show the influence of nominal variable in the determination of nominal exchange rate R$/USS. For this, the model of the parity of the tax of interests was used, ally to the monetary market. It was looked, also, to foresee the tax of exchange rate R$/USS, until December of 2005. For reaching such objectives, the equations of the system had been obtained by the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results had shown that the nominal variable are very important to determinate the exchange rate and that the model of parity of the tax of interests, ally to the monetary market is confirmed for the Brazilian case in the period of analysis (jan/1999 to dez/2004). This conclusion is made on the basis of the high capacity of...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Exchange; Forecast; Brazil; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55311
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Development and Forecast of Semitropical Silk Industry in Guangxi Province AgEcon
Qu, Dacai; Song, Guirong; Li, Jun; Lan, Shusi; Lu, Shoukun.
We introduce the current status and advantages of the development of silk industry in Guangxi Province of China. We also analyze the tremendous achievements of Guangxi silk industry. Finally, this paper forecasts the future of semitropical silk industry in Guangxi Province, and puts forward the related countermeasures on how to realize the sustainable development.
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation Palavras-chave: Silk industry; Forecast; Semitropics; Sustainable development; China; Livestock Production/Industries; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53529
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Forecast of Grain Production of China during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period AgEcon
Men, Ke-pei; Zhu, Shu-dan; Zhao, Kai.
According to the latest revised agricultural economic statistical data in China Statistical Yearbook-2010, by selecting and establishing the square root-treated grey model, the empirical analysis and forecast research on the grain output of China from 201 1 to 2015 are conducted. The results show that me grain output of China in 2011 will reach 557.739 million tons, and it will break through 600 million tons at 605.617 million tons in 2015. The persistent and stable grain output will ensure that the national economy develops in normal during the twelfth five-year plan period and remit the world grain crisis efficiently; meanwhile, the problem of exorbitant grain prices should be remitted in some level.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: China grain production; Square root-treated grey model; Forecast; China; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117254
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Forecast of rural gross social output value in Jiangsu Province based on optimized grey model AgEcon
Men, Ke-pei; Zhang, Na.
We establish the optimized grey model with logarithm new development coefficient by screening according to the latest statistical data during 2007 in Jiangsu Province. Empirical analysis and prediction research on rural gross social output value in Jiangsu Province from the year 2008 to 2012 are carried out. Result shows that the rural gross social output value in Jiangsu Province in 2008 reached 6 169.697 billion yuan, and will be 9 511.017 billion yuan at the end of 2010, which is about 6.690 times of that in the year 2000. Target of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” is expected to be realized smoothly.
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation Palavras-chave: Rural gross social output value in Jiangsu Province; Grey modeling; Optimized grey model with logarithm new development coefficient; Forecast; China; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Financial Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53469
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Forecasting Volatilities of Corn Futures at Distant Horizons AgEcon
Wu, Feng; Guan, Zhengfei.
Accurately forecasting volatility at distant horizons is critical for managing long-term risk in agriculture. Given the poor performance of GARCH-type models at long-term volatility forecast, we develop a risk-adjusted implied volatility, which adjust the risk-neutral implied volatility by correctly accounting for the volatility risk premium. The paper evaluates the performance of the new implied volatility in the corn futures market relative to two alternative forecasts- a three-year moving average forecast and a naïve forecast. The finding from the study is that the new implied volatilities have at least as well as or stronger predictive power than alternative predicting approaches.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk-neutral; Volatility risk premium; Forecast; Corn options; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61316
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How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market AgEcon
Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H.; Garcia, Philip.
This study investigates the predictability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative market and time-series forecasts. The findings suggest that predictive performance of the outlook hog price forecasts can be improved substantially. Under RMSE, VARs estimated with Bayesian procedures that allow for some degree of flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Forecast; Futures; Models; Prices; Time-series; Vector autoregression; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37620
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Impact des missions altimétriques et des réseaux de mesure in situ actuels et futurs sur l'analyse et la prévision océanique ArchiMer
Verrier, Simon.
Two series of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are carried out with global data assimilation systems at 1/4° and 1/12° resolution using simulated altimetry (satellite) and in situ (Argo  oat) data derived from a 1/12° resolution free run simulation. The objectives are to quantify how well di erent data sets can constrain a global data assimilation system. The positive impact of multiple altimeter data is clearly evidenced on sea level and ocean currents. The addition of Argo has a major impact to improve temperature and demonstrates the essential role of Argo together with altimetry to constrain a global data assimilation system. Results derived from these OSSEs are consistent with those derived from experiments with real data (observing...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Océanographie; Systèmes opérationnels; Altimétrie; Flotte Argo; OSSE; OSE; Analyse; Prévision; 1/4°; 1/12°; Oceanography; Operationnal systems; Altimetry; Argo oat; OSSE; OSE; Analysis; Forecast; 1/4°; 1/12°.
Ano: 2018 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00497/60915/64272.pdf
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Logistics demand of agricultural products - A Case of Zhengzhou City of Henan Province AgEcon
Wang, Xu-ran; Yao, Xin-sheng; Wei, Jian-guang; Fan, Sha-sha.
We define the category of agricultural products, and introduce the demand standard of population for agricultural products. Furthermore, we adopt the mathematical model to forecast the future population of Zhengzhou City, as well as the demand of agricultural products, the logistics demand and cost of agricultural products in Zhengzhou City in the year 2010.
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation Palavras-chave: Agricultural products; Agricultural products logistics; Demand; Forecast; China; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53482
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MODELOS DE SÉRIES TEMPORAIS APLICADOS À SÉRIE DOS ÍNDICES DE PREÇOS AO CONSUMIDOR NA REGIÃO DE LAVRAS, MG, NO PERÍODO DE 1992 A 1999 AgEcon
Silva, Roberta Bessa Veloso; Ferreira, Daniel Furtado; Safadi, Thelma.
This piece of work was carried out objectifying to adjust the time series models to the series of price indexes for the consumer ( PIC ) of Lavras MG. It aimed at verifying the occurrence of differences in trend as for the period which preceeded, as well as for the one which succeeded the Plano Real, and if there was a simple linear trend along with Plano Real ( 1994-1999 ) as well as if any seasonality occurred. It also objectified to comparing the series of both Lavras and the Federal District. It was verified that there was no trend along the whole series, nor there was any seasonality, notwithstanding the fact that a level change occurred, which was characterized as an intervention, rather than a trend. It was necessary to fit a model featuring an...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Price index to the consumer; Trend; Seasonality; Forecast.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43355
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Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets AgEcon
Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H..
The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the accuracy of outlook forecasts relative to futures prices in hog and cattle markets. Published forecasts from four prominent livestock outlook programs are available for analysis. Most of the series begin in the mid- to late-1970s and end in 2006. Root mean squared error (RMSE) comparisons indicate, with one exception, no meaningful differences in forecast accuracy between outlook forecasts and futures prices. The null hypothesis that futures prices encompass outlook forecasts is rejected in 9 of 11 cases for hogs and 7 of 8 cases for cattle, clearly indicating that outlook forecasts provide incremental information not contained in futures prices. The magnitude of decline in RMSE from...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cattle; Encompassing; Forecast; Futures price; Hogs; Outlook; RMSE.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37577
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Perspectives for directional spectra assimilation : Results from a study based on joint assimilation of CFOSAT synthetic wave spectra and observed SAR spectra from Sentinel-1A ArchiMer
Aouf, L.; Hauser, D.; Tison, C.; Mouche, Alexis.
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Assimilation; Surface ocean wave model; SAR; CFOSAT; Forecast; Surface ocean wave spectra.
Ano: 2016 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00377/48801/51082.pdf
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Research and Prediction of Ecological Security in Jiangsu Province Based on the Ecological Footprint AgEcon
Cheng, Ge; Yue, Xian-ping.
According to the 2000-2010 Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook, per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity in Jiangsu Province in the years 2001-2009 are analyzed starting from the ecological footprint model. Per capita ecological deficit is measured, as well as the pressure index of ecological footprint in order to judge the grade of ecological security and to objectively evaluate the ecological security of Jiangsu Province. GM(1,1) grey forecasting model is used to forecast the ecological security of Jiangsu Province in the years 2010-2014. Research shows that in the next 5 years, both the per capita ecological footprint and the pressure index of ecological footprint will increase by 4% and 3.7% each year, respectively. And the...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Ecological footprint; Ecological security; Jiangsu Province; Forecast; GM(1,1); China; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/113482
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Research on the Forecast of Grain Production in Henan Province from 2010 to 2015 AgEcon
Men, Ke-pei; Zhao, Kai.
According to the latest amended agricultural economic statistical data from 1996 to 2009 in Henan Statistical Yearbook-2010,by selecting and establishing the optimized grey model of logarithmic new developed coefficient, we conduct the empirical analysis and forecast research on the grain output and the relevant main economic indices in Henan Province from 2010 to 2015. The results show that the grain output of Henan Province in 2010 will reach 54.8969 million tons, and it will break through 60 million tons at 60.17 million tons in 2015. In years ahead, the grain output of Henan Province will develops to a new stage steadily, which guarantees the national grain supply and socio-economic sustainable development forcibly.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Henan Province; Grain production; Grey model of LNDC; Forecast; China; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108398
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Trends and Prospects of Lithuania's Trade in Agricultural and Food Products with BRICs AgEcon
Bogdanov, Andrej; Petuchova, Tamara.
This study explores trends and perspectives of Lithuania’s trade in agricultural and food products with the BRIC countries. Agriculture is one of the priority sectors of Lithuania’s economy and plays an important economic and social role. The share of agricultural and food products within the overall foreign trade of Lithuania is significant, and exports to the BRIC countries account for nearly one third of the Lithuanian agricultural and food products exports. BRICs economic development and growing population leads to the increasing food consumption. The potential of these markets is attractive for Lithuania’s foreign trade. Therefore, consideration of trade flow in food and agricultural products between Lithuania and the BRIC countries is currently very...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Foreign trade in agricultural and food products; Econometric model; Forecast; Lithuania; BRIC; Agribusiness; F17; F47.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115531
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