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Registros recuperados: 42
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A gravity model approach to forecasting tuberculosis transmission in cattle AgEcon
Xie, Fang; Horan, Richard D.; Wolf, Christopher A..
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle has caused significant economic losses to livestock producers and has proven difficult to eradicate. It is suspected that cattle movement across different farms and regions is one of the key factors of bTB transmission in the United States. Prior attempts to model the epidemiology of bTB infection within cattle to predict disease transmission have not adequately captured the behavioral aspects of trade. A better understanding of livestock trade patterns would help in predicting disease transmission and the associated economic effects. In this paper, we develop a gravity model of livestock trade and link it to an epidemiological model of bTB transmission, with the goal being that this information could lead to improved...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bovine tuberculosis; Gravity model; Disease management; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49382
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Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza Related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare AgEcon
Wieck, Christine; Schlueter, Simon W.; Britz, Wolfgang.
We use two methodological approaches to analyze avian influenza related quarantine measures. First, a Heckman type gravity model is used to estimate the trade impact and second, a spatial partial equilibrium simulation model is developed to simulate welfare changes. The simulation model considers spread and transmission risk according to the disease status of the importing country as well as parameter uncertainty of the calibrated coefficients by using a Monte Carlo approach. The econometric results show that the principle of regionalization is preferred to import trade bans for uncooked meat. The simulation results verify the negative welfare impact of currently implemented regulatory policies and indicate that significant trade diversion effects...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Animal disease; Quarantine measure; Non-tariff measure; Welfare; Gravity model; Simulation model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; F14; F17; Q11; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122022
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CARICOM Bilateral Trade: A Preliminary Analysis Using the Gravity Model AgEcon
Sandberg, H. Mikael; Taylor, Timothy G.; Seale, James L., Jr..
This paper investigates the determinants of intra-CARICOM bilateral trade and the CARICOM member's trade with the North American and European countries using the gravity model. Seventeen annual cross-sections are estimated for the period 1980 through 1996. Overall, the empirical results indicate that the gravity model has considerable potential to explain intra-CARICOM bilateral trade as well as trade between CARICOM members and non-members. The evidence suggests that both the importer's GDP per capita and the exporter's GDP per capita exert strong positive effects on CARICOM trade levels. Since these effects are found to be statistically the same, we conclude that the gravity model is symmetric with respect to GDP per capita. Further, sharing a common...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Caribbean economies; CARICOM; FTAA; Gravity model; Regional integration; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15636
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Comércio e integração dos estados brasileiros AgEcon
Almeida, Fernanda Maria de; Silva, Orlando Monteiro da.
Given that in Brazil there is a significant asymmetry in production and trade among states, this study had as objective to measure the border effect to the intranational and international trade, using it as an indicator of the degree of integration. Such effect measures the bias to the internal trade of a country or state, in comparison to the external trade. A gravity model, including different dummy variables was used as methodology for this study. Results showed that intra-state trade in Brazil was 32 and 96 times larger than interstate and international trade, respectively. Interstate trade, was shown to be around 34 times larger than international trade. The border effect calculated to each state trading to other states, and to the rest of the world,...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: International trade; Border effect; Gravity model; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54139
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COMÉRCIO INTERESTADUAL E INFRA-ESTRUTURA NO BRASIL: UMA ANÁLISE DO RELACIONAMENTO NO BRASIL AgEcon
Silva, Orlando Monteiro da; Almeida, Fernanda Maria de.
Uma melhoria da infra-estrutura e da logística, ao integrar a produção e os negócios entre as diferentes regiões ou países, reduz os custos do comércio e promove a riqueza. No entanto, as análises sobre o relacionamento da infra-estrutura com o comércio internacional tem tido muito mais atenção do que em nível regional ou interestadual. Assim, o objetivo desse estudo foi levantar e quantificar o relacionamento existente entre a disponibilidade dos serviços de infra-estrutura e o volume de comércio entre os estados brasileiros. Criou-se um indicador da infra-estrutura existente nos diferentes estados, que foi relacionado ao fluxo comercial entre eles. O estado de São Paulo apresentou os maiores valores, aparecendo com indicadores máximos, em seis das onze...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Comércio interestadual; Infra-estrutura; Modelo de gravidade; Interstate trade; Infrastructure; Gravity model; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109120
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Communication Costs and Agro-Food Trade in OECD Countries AgEcon
Bojnec, Stefan; Ferto, Imre.
The paper analyses the effects of communication costs for agro-food trade in OECD countries between 1995 and 2003 using gravity model. We find that the link between the communication costs and agro-food trade flows in developed countries is significantly stronger for agricultural than for food products. The improved communication services reduce trade transaction costs. The estimations also confirmed importance of the economy size, level of development in importer countries, and trade distance. The other traditional gravity variables like contiguity, language and regional free trade agreements have significant impacts in the majority of specifications
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Communication costs; Agro-food trade; Gravity model; International Relations/Trade; F14; F23; Q17.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50937
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Cultural Barriers and Agricultural Trade in the Western Hemisphere AgEcon
Susanto, Dwi; Rosson, C. Parr, III.
This study analyzes the impacts of cultural distance on bilateral trade flows in the Western Hemisphere using a Fixed Effects Vector Decomposition (FEVD). Four cultural dimensions of Hofstede are used to capture cultural distance. The results found that the effects of each dimension vary considerably with three of four dimensions (UAI, PDI, and MFI) have a negative impact and one dimension (ICI) has a positive effect. The magnitude of ICI is large enough to offset the negative effects of the other three dimensions resulting in a net positive effect of cultural distance, suggesting that culturally-dissimilar countries trade more than less.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Cultural distance; Gravity model; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56352
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Does Africa Trade Less than it Should, and If So, Why?: The Role of Market Access and Domestic Factors AgEcon
Bouet, Antoine; Mishra, Santosh; Roy, Devesh.
This paper addresses the question of whether Africa is an undertrading continent. We answer this question using a much-improved data set for obtaining predicted trade and by employing methods that correct for bias in estimates of undertrading. Our results indicate that globally Africa is an underexporter in our preferred Heckman specification. This result is robust to the addition of various controls and the application of variants of the gravity model of trade. We also looked for explanations for Africa’s undertrading. We found that accounting for transport and communication infrastructure reduced the undertrading effect for Africa, and in some specifications of the gravity model, the under-trading effect vanished altogether. Results from a semiparametric...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Gravity model; Undertrading; Trade related infrastructure; Market access; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42320
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Does the Gravity Model Suffer from Selection Bias? AgEcon
Haq, Zahoor Ul; Meilke, Karl D.; Cranfield, John A.L..
When analyzing bilateral trade flow data, zero trade flows are quite common and problematic when a gravity equation is estimated with a log-linear functional form. This has caused many researchers to either ignore the zero trade flows or to replace zero with a small positive number. Both of these actions bias the resulting parameter estimates of the gravity equation. In this study we correct for this misspecification by using the Heckman selection model to estimate the bilateral trade flows for 46 agrifood products, for the period 1990 to 2000, for 52 countries. In our sample, selection bias rarely affects the signs of variables but often has a substantial effect on the magnitude, statistical significance and economic interpretation of the marginal...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Gravity model; Selection bias; Agrifood Trade; Heckman Selection Model; Marginal effects; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90884
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Effects of Food Safety Standards on Seafood Exports to US, EU and Japan AgEcon
Nguyen, Anh Van Thi; Wilson, Norbert L.W..
Estimating the panel gravity model with bilateral pair and country-by-time fixed-effects separately for each seafood product, we found that food safety regulations have differential effects across seafood products. In all three industrialized markets, shrimp is most sensitive, while fish is the least sensitive to changing food safety policies. The enforcement of the US HACCP, the EU Minimum Required Performance Level and the Japanese Food Safety Basic Law caused a loss of 90.45%, 99.47%, and 99.97% to shrimp trade in these markets, and a reduction associated with fish trade was 66.71%, 82.83%, and 89.32%.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Food safety; Seafood; International trade; Gravity model; HACCP; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Relations/Trade; C33; F13; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46758
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Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade in Agrifood Products: Evidence from Gravity Modeling Using Disaggregated Data AgEcon
Sarker, Rakhal; Jayasinghe, Sampath.
The recent proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) has intensified the debate on their merits. A growing literature has addressed this policy debate, focusing on the welfare and trade effects of RTAs and their likely impacts on the multilateral trading system. Some view them as stepping-stones toward multilateral trade liberalization while others see them as stumbling blocks against free trade. The existing literature has neglected some important aspects of RTAs dealing with trade in agrifood products. This study analyzes trade creation and diversion effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on trade of six selected agrifood products from 1985 to 2000. The investigation estimates an extended gravity model using pooled...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agrifood products; Gravity model; NAFTA; North American Free Trade Agreement; Regional trade agreements; Trade creation; Trade diversion; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18605
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Elasticity of trade flow to trade barriers: A comparison among emerging estimation techniques AgEcon
Olper, Alessandro; Raimondi, Valentina.
The objective of this study has been to analyze the sensitivity of trade flow to trade barriers from gravity equations, using different econometric techniques recently highlighted in the literature. Specifically, we compare a benchmark OLS fixed effects specification a la Feenstra (2002), with three emerging estimation methods: the standard Heckman correction for selection bias, to account for zero trade flow; its extension, recently proposed by Helpman et al. (2008), to control for firm heterogeneity; and, finally, the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) technique to correct for the presence of heteroskedasticity, first proposed by Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006). Our gravity model includes trade among 211 exporter and 104 importer countries, in 18...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Gravity model; Trade Elasticity; Food trade; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44119
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Empirical Analysis on the Impacts on Chinese Agro-products Export Caused by Technical Barrier to Trade on Chinese Agro-products Export AgEcon
Zhao, Qi.
In view of the impacts on Chinese agro-products export caused by various technical barriers to trade, the academic circles analyzed it from the costs and quantity of exported agro-products. On the basis of the status quo of Chinese agro-products, the gravity model is introduced to analyze the impacts on Chinese agro-product export caused by technical barriers to trade. The results show that as long as the quality of Chinese agro-products can achieve the standard set by developed countries, for one thing, the health of Chinese consumers can be ensured, for another thing, the export of Chinese agro-products will be more smooth, which can provide reference for our government making decisions and solving trade dispute.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Technical barrier to trade; Gravity model; Agro-products; Export; China; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/113433
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Evolution of olive oil import demand structures in nonproducing countries: the cases of Germany and the UK AgEcon
Kavallari, Aikaterini; Maas, Sarah; Schmitz, P. Michael.
Consumption patterns of olive oil have changed over recent years influencing the supply chain. The consumption has increased in countries where olive oil is not part of the traditional diet as for example Germany and the UK, where the average consumption grew by 11 and 13% respectively during the period 1995-2003. The opening of new non-traditional markets has shifted exports and re-structured the supply chain. Mediterranean countries have been the traditional suppliers of olive oil with the EU Mediterranean Member States being the main exporters and with the non-EU Mediterranean countries trying to gain market shares in the EU markets in an attempt to benefit from the preferential access due to the Barcelona Agreement. This paper tries to identify which...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Olive oil; Gravity model; Import demand; Germany; UK; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58073
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Explaining German imports of olive oil: evidence from a gravity model AgEcon
Kavallari, Aikaterini; Maas, Sarah; Schmitz, P. Michael.
In this study the case of olive oil imports of Germany is examined since olive oil is a traditional Mediterranean commodity and Germany is the biggest importer in the EU. A gravity model has been employed so as to analyse those factors that explain the German imports of olive oil that were identified in a preceding analysis of the German olive oil supply chain. The results of two random-effects models corrected for serial correlation and heteroskedasticity suggest that being a Mediterranean Partner country of the EU has the highest impact on trade flows to Germany, thus supporting further Euromediterranean trade integration. The level of trade to Germany is positively related to existence of direct marketing channels and to tourism implying that these...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Gravity model; Olive oil; Germany; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44217
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Financial Development and International Agricultural Trade: Is There A Connection? AgEcon
Susanto, Dwi; Rosson, C. Parr, III.
This study empirically investigates the possible link between financial development and international agricultural trade using binomial models of the gravity equations. Financial development is measured by a constructed financial reforms index. The results provide some evidence on the positive impacts of financial reform on agricultural exports. The results further indicate that countries with a greater degree of financial development as exhibited by advanced countries tend to have larger impacts on agricultural exports. Bilateral trade involving advanced countries has a larger magnitude of impacts of financial reforms on agricultural trade than those involving developing countries
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Binomial model; Financial reform; Gravity model; International Development; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98479
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Greek Olive Oil: How Can Its International Market Potential Be Realized? AgEcon
Vlontzos, George N.; Duquenne, Marie-Noelle.
Trade issues affecting virgin olive oil originating in Greece are examined. A gravity model is estimated to determine the factors affecting trade in olive oil. The results provided by the gravity model yield information that is central to determining the strengths and weaknesses of the sector, as well as the opportunities and threats that exist. Finally, some proposals and suggestions are developed for increasing the international competitiveness of the Greek olive oil industry and endowing it with essential quality and safety assurances.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Competitiveness; Gravity model; Olive oil; Quality; Trade flows; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Development; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42310
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Impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on international trade in fruit and vegetables: A gravity model approach AgEcon
Thiemann, Franziska; Fleming, Euan M.; Mueller, Rolf A.E..
Globalization results when markets become more integrated because of reduced transaction and transport costs. These costs have fallen because of sustained advances in transport technology and, more dramatically, in digital information and communication technology (ICT). Although communication costs tend to be a minor component of total trading costs, reductions in these costs may strongly stimulate international trade. The empirical evidence in support of this effect is, however, scant and its strength may depend on the composition of ICT and the nature of the product being traded. We test the hypothesis of an ICT effect on trade in bananas, oranges, tomatoes, and vegetables and fruit in general. We employ a gravity model of international trade between...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Gravity model; Information and communication technology (ICT); International trade; Fruit and vegetables; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123840
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Impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on international trade in fruit and vegetables: A gravity model approach AgEcon
Thiemann, Franziska; Fleming, Euan M.; Mueller, Rolf A.E..
Globalization results when markets become more integrated because of reduced transaction and transport costs. These costs have fallen because of sustained advances in transport technology and, more dramatically, in digital information and communication technology (ICT). Although communication costs tend to be a minor component of total trading costs, reductions in these costs may strongly stimulate international trade. The empirical evidence in support of this effect is, however, scant and its strength may depend on the composition of ICT and the nature of the product being traded. We test the hypothesis of an ICT effect on trade in bananas, oranges, tomatoes, and vegetables and fruit in general. We employ a gravity model of international trade between...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Gravity model; Information and communication technology (ICT); International trade; Fruit and vegetables; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123839
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Impact of Trade blocs on Agricultural Trade and Policy Implications for China: Gravity Model Study AgEcon
Sun, Lin.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Gravity model; Trade blocs; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50901
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