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How do MAR(1) models cope with hidden nonlinearities in ecological dynamics? ArchiMer
Certain, Gregoire; Barraquand, Frederic; Gardmark, Anna.
1.Multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models are an increasingly popular technique to infer interaction strengths between species in a community and to predict the community response to environmental change. The most commonly employed MAR(1) models, with one time lag, can be viewed either as multispecies competition models with Gompertz density‐dependence or, more generally, as a linear approximation of more complex, nonlinear dynamics around stable equilibria. This latter interpretation allows for broader applicability, but may come at a cost in terms of interpretation of estimates and reliability of both short‐ and long‐term predictions. 2.We investigate what these costs might be by fitting MAR(1) models to simulated two‐species competition,...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Forecasting; Interaction strength; MARSS; Multivariate autoregressive models; PRESS perturbation.
Ano: 2018 URL:
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