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Bayesian Inferences on Fourier Flexible Functional Form in Agricultural Production AgEcon
Featherstone, Allen M.; Cader, Hanas A..
Flexible functional forms are used to examine the characteristics of production technologies. The Fourier functional form is capable of approximating any function globally, with the specified expansion. Unfortunately the exact form of the expansion is not known. The regularity conditions are likely to be violated without the exact form of expansion. In this paper we use a Bayesian approach to impose regularity conditions locally on a Fourier flexible functional from using agricultural production data. Monotonicity, concavity, convexity and elasticities are compared.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cost function; Flexible functional form; Fourier series; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19228
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How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions? AgEcon
Keller, Klaus; Miltich, Louise I.; Robinson, Alexander; Tol, Richard S.J..
Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Carbon Dioxide; Emissions; Scenarios; Data Assimilation; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q540.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9321
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IMPOSING REGULARITY CONDITIONS ON A SYSTEM OF COST AND FACTOR SHARE EQUATIONS AgEcon
Griffiths, William E.; O'Donnell, Christopher J.; Cruz, Agustina Tan.
Systems of equations comprising cost functions and first-order derivative equations are often used to estimate characteristics of production technologies. Unfortunately, many estimated systems violate the regularity conditions implied by economic theory. Sampling theory methods can be used to impose these conditions globally, but these methods destroy the flexibility properties of most functional forms. We demonstrate how Bayesian methods can be used to maintain flexibility by imposing regularity conditions locally. The Bayesian approach is used to estimate a system of cost and share equations for the merino-woolgrowing sector. The effect of local imposition of monotonicity and concavity on the signs and magnitudes of elasticities is examined.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Cost functions; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Inequality constraints; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12925
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Trip-Level Analysis of Efficiency Changes in Oregon's Deepwater Trawl Fishery AgEcon
Tomberlin, David; Holloway, Garth J..
In 2003, an industry-financed, government-administered buyback of trawl fishing permits and vessels took place on the US West Coast, resulting in the retirement of about one-third of the limited-entry trawl fleet. The lack of cost data in this fishery precludes an analysis of how the buyback has affected profitability, but changes in technical efficiency can provide some insight into the program's effects. This paper, the first of a planned series of analyses of the buyback's effect on technical efficiency in the trawl fleet, applies stochastic frontier analysis to assess whether technical efficiency changed perceptibly after 2003. We adopt a hierarchical modeling approach estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and present results from both...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Fishery Buyback; Technical Efficiency; Stochastic Production Frontier; Bayesian Inference; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q2; L5; C1.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8223
Registros recuperados: 4
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