SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Fabiosa, Jacinto F..

This study develops a generic conceptual approach to modeling the livestock sector that provides better coverage of variables to ensure the consistency in the underlying biologics of the model and also provides consistent rules of specification. This approach is applied to modeling the swine-pork sector of Japan and then used to analyze the impact of removing Japan's gate price policy and variable levy for pork imports. The new approach departs significantly from existing models. For consistency in the biologics of the model both live animals and meat components of the sector are fully covered. The structure clearly differentiates stock and flow variables and investment and production decisions. A standard rule of specification is established that only...

Agricultural policy (AP2011) Reform and the WTO: Potential Impacts on Swiss Agriculture

Palavras-chave: Livestock sector; Partial equilibrium model; Gate price policy; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 1999

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18655

Ferjani, Ali.

This article analyses the impact of the planned Swiss package of agricultural policy measures AP2011 and the tariff reductions scheduled as part of the WTO Doha Round, with special emphasis on effects in the dairy and meat sector. The simulations are carried out using an extended partial equilibrium model. This article discusses the anticipated impact of changing structural conditions on production, processing, consumption, prices and exports in the milk market. If account is taken of the Bilateral Agreements between Switzerland and the EU providing for liberalisation of the common cheese market, raw milk production increases by 10.5 %, whereas the milk price shows a significant drop to around 60 centimes per kilogram of milk. The abolition of subsidies...

Agriculture, Population, Land and Water Scarcity in a Changing World – The Role of Irrigation

Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; Simulation; AP2011; WTO; Dairy industry; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6638

Sauer, Timm; Havlik, Petr; Schneider, Uwe A.; Kindermann, Georg E.; Obersteiner, Michael.

Fertile land and fresh water constitute two of the most fundamental resources for food production. These resources are affected by environmental, political, economic, and technical developments. Regional impacts may transmit to the world through increased trade. With a global forest and agricultural sector model, we quantify the impacts of increased demand for food due to population growth and economic development on potential land and water use. In particular, we investigate producer adaptation regarding crop and irrigation choice, agricultural market adjustments, and changes in the values of land and water.

An Economic Assessment of the BSE Crisis in Canada: Impact of Border Closure and BSE Recovery Programs

Palavras-chave: Irrigation; Food supply; Integrated assessment; Water use intensity; Agricultural adaptation; Land scarcity; Partial equilibrium model; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44271

Weerahewa, Jeevika; Meilke, Karl D.; Le Roy, Danny G..

This article assesses the economic consequences of three alternative government responses to the BSE crisis in Canada: 1) expansion in slaughter capacity; 2) partial destruction of the cattle herd; and 3) deficiency payments. Each of these policies is evaluated under four different border situations: 1) autarky; 2) free trade in young beef only; 3) free trade in young beef and cattle; and 4) complete free trade. The results of the policy analysis are quite sensitive to the border assumptions, making it impossible to select a “best” policy without perfect foresight with respect to the timing and the extent of the border opening.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: BSE; Cattle and beef; Partial equilibrium model; Simulation; Trade ban; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6176

Analyzing Drivers of World Food Prices: Weather, Growth, and Biofuels

Saunders, Caroline M.; Kaye-Blake, William; Cagatay, Selim.

The recent rise of food cost in world markets has accelerated the research examining the underlying factors for this rise. The present research investigated the separate and combined impacts of three factors thought to contribute to the price rise: adverse weather events, strong and sustained growth in high populated countries, and increased biofuels production. The research further analysed the effects of these price rises on consumption expenditures in Brazil, China and India. Analyses were carried out using a partial equilibrium trade model with a focus on the 2004 to 2007 period. The modelling suggests that the most important factor behind the price rise depends on the commodity, with maize/corn, oilseeds, and sugar most affected by biofuels, while...

Assessing the Future Development of the Macedonian Agriculture: Partial equilibrium model of livestock-feed sector

Palavras-chave: Food prices; Partial equilibrium model; Biofuel; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; F11; Q17.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51460

Kotevska, Ana; Dimitrievski, Dragi; Erjavec, Emil.

The country is facing one of the biggest challenges since its independence – the process of the EU accession. Taking into consideration that „forecasting important economic events is source of power“ (Howitt, 2005), the aim of this paper is to develop a model in order to assess the impact of the EU membership on the Macedonian agriculture. The model is recursive, dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium model for the meat, dairy and cereals sector in the Republic of Macedonia. It follows the AGMEMOD principles, hence comprising the local features of the Macedonian agriculture. The baseline scenario shows a positive growth of the pig meat, lamb meat and cow milk sectors. On the other hand, in the EU scenarios the most positive effect is expected in the...

Bioenergy and Food Security Modeling Income Effects in a Partial Equilibrium Model

Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; Agricultural policy; Macedonian agriculture; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114698

Schneider, Uwe A.; Llull, Christian; Havlik, Petr.

Bioenergy has been politically promoted as a means to mitigate air pollution, climate change, and scarcity of fossil energy sources. This study addresses the question whether increased agricultural incomes from bioenergy production will improve food security despite increasing food prices. We use a small partial equilibrium to analyze bioenergy policies. Through an iterative procedure, income changes are used to shift food demand curves until equilibrium. Our results show that despite global reductions in food production, undernourishment may decrease in certain locations, where bioenergy production occurs.

CAP Reform and the Mediterranean EU-Member States

Palavras-chave: Food security; Bioenergy policy; Income changes; Partial equilibrium model; Food Security and Poverty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44176

Borresch, Rene; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Schmitz, P. Michael.

In the previous years the Mediterranean Member States of the EU came across the Reform of the CAP and especially last year faced the second wave of the Reform for three typical Mediterranean products, namely cotton, olive oil and tobacco. In this paper a partial equilibrium model is used to simulate the impacts of decoupling, as a key point of the decided CAP Reform. The second wave of the Reform appears to be of crucial importance for the southern EU countries and although the producer's income is reduced, there are positive welfare effects.

CHINESE CONSUMER DEMAND FOR ANIMAL PRODUCTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. PORK AND POULTRY EXPORTS

Palavras-chave: Decoupling; Partial equilibrium model; CAP reform; Greece; Italy; Spain; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q18; Q17; D59.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24607

Wang, Qingbin; Fuller, Frank H.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Halbrendt, Catherine K..

This paper examines Chinese consumer preference for major animal products and assesses the potential impacts of a reduction in China's import tariff on its pork and poultry demand and net import. Our analysis suggests that China's demand for animal products will continue to grow as income increases. Using a trade model, results of our scenario analysis indicate that a reduction in China's import tariffs will significantly increase its net pork and poultry imports and the U.S. will capture most of the increases. Nevertheless, the impact on the market price in China and the U.S. is likely to be very small.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Almost Ideal Demand System; China; Consumer demand; Demand elasticity; Food demand; Partial equilibrium model; Two-stage budgeting; U.S. meat export; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15102

Effects of Market and Policy Shocks on the Canadian and U.S. Cattle and Beef Industries

Twine, Edgar; Rude, James.

The paper examines the impact of four exogenous shocks – exchange rate appreciation, feed price escalation, mandatory country of origin labeling, and economic recession – on the Canadian and U.S. beef cattle industries using a multi-market partial equilibrium model. Impacts on the U.S. industry are found to be relatively small compared to those on the Canadian industry. Country of origin labeling, and feed price escalation account for the largest decline in the welfare of Canadian cattle producers.

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: Canadian and U.S. beef cattle industries; Exogenous shocks; Partial equilibrium model; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Q11; Q13; Q17.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123565

EU dairy policy and WTO negotiations

Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra; Requillart, Vincent.

The EU dairy sector is facing a period of significant changes that are due to three major decisions: the EU enlargement, the Luxemburg reform and on-going WTO negotiations. In this paper, we focus on the analysis of changes in both domestic and trade dairy policies using a spatial model of the dairy sector that includes EU25 member countries, the modelling of the rest of the world including the main world dairy exporter (Oceania) and 4 importing areas (Africa, America, Asia and the Rest of Europe). The paper provides detailed results with respect to dairy markets in the EU. We show that in the context of the Luxemburg reform, the WTO might have positive impacts on EU milk price. The positive impact on EU milk price of a reduction of the tariffs in the...

EU Dairy Sector: Impact of Luxemburg Reform, EU Enlargement and Trade Negotiations

Palavras-chave: WTO; Agricultural policy; Dairy industry; Partial equilibrium model; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10105

Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra; Ali-Kein, Hela Hadj; Jongeneel, Roelof A.; Tonini, Axel; Requillart, Vincent.

The EU dairy sector is facing a period of significant changes that are due to three major decisions: the EU enlargement, the Luxembourg reform and on-going WTO negotiations. To evaluate the impact of such changes we developed a model of the EU and world dairy industry. The model is composed of two modules that interact: a milk and beef supply module and a dairy industry module. In this paper we present the model and focus on elements that are crucial for a better understanding of the impact of reforms: quota rents in the EU, evolution of production in the new member states and trade policy.

Greenhouse Gas and Nitrogen Fertilizer Scenarios for U.S. Agriculture and Global Biofuels

Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Dairy industry; Partial equilibrium model; International Relations/Trade; C21; Q13; Q18.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24581

Elobeid, Amani E.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Dumortier, Jerome; Rosas, Francisco.

This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world...

How to Derive Market Impacts of the Luxembourg Agreement on the German Beef Market - A Synthetic Uniform Model versus an Econometric Country Specific Model

Palavras-chave: Afforestation; Energy price; Ethanol tax credit; Fertilizer; Partial equilibrium model; Policy analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/107043

Salamon, Petra.

The paper discusses two partial equilibrium models, one is a synthetic model (GAPsi) and the other an econometrically estimated model (AG-MEMOD). While the synthetic model incorporates only price impacts and some shifts, the econometric model also reflects other influencing factors. Price formation includes policy measures as price wedges, or as explaining variables in key price equations or price transmission equations, which is also true when premiums and decoupling are regarded. When the Luxembourg Agreement is simulated, our example of beef shows that these model differences induce deviations in model results, especially concerning prices and trade.

Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets - A Model based analysis

Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; CAP; Luxembourg Agreement; Projections; Econometric estimation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q11; Q18.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24570

Banse, Martin; Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Bouma, Foppe; Salputra, Guna; Fellmann, Thomas; Nekhay, Olexandr.

This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the project has also been the integration of an endogenous world market price module including a stylized Rest of the World (ROW) model. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a strong focus on plant production in general and on grain based animal production; Russia and Ukraine are mostly net-exports of those products. Under the baseline, in Russia prices for crops and oilseeds are below the world...

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; Price formation; Russia; Ukraine; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122536

INCORPORATING BIOFUELS INTO A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF THE EU AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Binfield, Julian C.R.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Le Cadre, Elodie.

The impact of increased consumption of biofuels on agricultural markets has already been substantial, and will increase further as countries around the world seek to expand the proportion of their energy that they get from renewable sources. Models of the agricultural sector must therefore include some consideration of the demand for agricultural products for biofuels and the byproducts that are produced as part of the production process that are returned to the agricultural sector. In this paper the method of introducing biofuels into the FAPRI GOLD (grains, oilseeds, livestock and dairy) model is discussed. A scenario is run whereby the EU is assumed to introduce a binding 10% target by 2020 and the results are discussed in order to illustrate the...

Introducing Different Land Uses (Irrigated and Non-Irrigated) in Policy Analysis Modelling for Mediterranean Countries

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Partial equilibrium model; Agricultural sector; EU policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6680

Casado, Jose Maria; Gracia, Azucena.

The arable crop sector in Spain is highly dependent of the Community subsidies and account for 33% of total transfers received by the Community. Then, it is expected that the introduction of the Single Farm Payment (SFP) will drive important changes in the arable crop production in Spain. The quantitative assessment of the SFP impacts on the arable crop sector in Spain is the overall objective of this paper. To achieve this goal, an econometric, dynamic, multi-product and partial equilibrium commodity model has been built disaggregating between irrigated and non-irrigated land use for cereals called Spanish Econometric Simulation of Agricultural Policies (SESAP). Results indicated that the introduction of the SFP has only induced considerable changes...

Linkages between Agriculture, Trade and the Environment in the Context of the European Union Accession

Palavras-chave: CAP reform; Partial equilibrium model; Policy modelling; Irrigated agriculture; Simulation; Land Economics/Use; Q12; Q18.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25709

Toma, Luiza; Mathijs, Erik; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar.

This paper analyses the impact of trade on environment in Romania using a partial equilibrium model of bilateral trade in beef between Romania and the EU. We use a recursive dynamic model to analyse beef production and trade and adjust it as to include a component to evaluate the impact of liberalised trade due to Romania’s accession to the EU on groundwater and air quality. The environmental module of the model associates the pollution to the use of production inputs. We link the use of itrogen inputs (e.g., nitrogenous fertilisers, manure) to nitrogen loss through leaching/runoff into groundwater (nitrates) and greenhouse gases (emissions of nitrous oxide and methane). We compute the nitrogen loss through leaching/runoff into the groundwater based on the...

Modeling Economywide versus Sectoral Climate Policies Using Combined Aggregate-Sectoral Models

Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Externalities; Partial equilibrium model; Romania; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45991

Pizer, William A.; Burtraw, Dallas; Harrington, Winston; Newell, Richard G.; Sanchirico, James N..

Economic analyses of climate change policies frequently focus on reductions of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions via market-based, economywide policies. The current course of environment and energy policy debate in the United States, however, suggests an alternative outcome: inefficiently designed and/or sector-based policies. This paper uses a collection of specialized, sector-based models in conjunction with a computable general equilibrium model of the economy to examine and compare these policies at an aggregate level. We examine the relative cost of different policies designed to achieve the same quantity of emissions reductions. We find that excluding a limited number of sectors from an economywide policy does not significantly raise costs....

MODELLING LONG-TERM COMMODITIES: THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIMULATION MODEL FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN WINE INDUSTRY WITHIN A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM FRAMEWORK

Palavras-chave: Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Climate change; Climate policy; General equilibrium model; Partial equilibrium model; Cost; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q25; D58; D61; Q48.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10502

Cutts, Michela; Reynolds, Sanri; Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Vink, Nick.

Econometric demand and supply models of agricultural commodities and crops have been around for a long time with extensive research and adaptations being made in the grain and livestock sectors. This much attention has, however, not been afforded to long term commodities. This paper presents a partial equilibrium framework for modelling long term commodities using the South African wine industry as an example. The model structure and important assumptions are presented, after which the usefulness of the model is tested in the form of baseline projections and the analysis of a typical “what if” question. The wine model presented in this paper is housed and maintained in the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) at the Department of Agriculture,...