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A Partial Equilibrium Model of the Beef and Dairy Sector in Italy Under Imperfect Competition AgEcon
Moro, Daniele; Sckokai, Paolo; Soregaroli, Claudio.
In this paper we present a partial equilibrium model for the bovine sector (beef and dairy) in Italy, which can be used for simulation and forecasting. The structure of the model follows the vertical chain of the beef and dairy sector, allowing trade of both agricultural raw materials and final products. Since the processing and retailing stage is characterised by an imperfectly competitive structure, the model accounts for market power in modelling the price transmission mechanism. This provides further insights on the vertical transmission of shocks, both at the final level (i.e. the BSE crisis) and at the farm level (i.e. agricultural policy reform).
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Simulation models; Policy analysis; Imperfect competition; Beef; Dairy; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24787
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A Stochastic Analysis of Proposals for the New US Farm Bill AgEcon
Binfield, Julian C.R.; Adams, Gary M.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Young, Robert E., II.
Most of the large scale modeling systems used in the analysis of agricultural policies produce deterministic projections. In reality, however, the agricultural sector is subject to a high degree of uncertainty as a result of fluctuations in exogenous factors such as the weather or macroeconomic variation. A stochastic approach can provide additional information to policy makers regarding the implications of this uncertainty, through the use of stochastically generated projections. This paper also shows how deterministic analysis may result in systematic errors in the projection of some variables. As an applied example, the FAPRI model of the US agricultural sector is simulated stochastically to analyse the impact of proposals for the new US farm bill.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Stochastic simulation; US Farm Bill; Policy analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24913
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Agentenbasierte Politik- und Sektoranalyse - Perspektiven und Herausforderungen AgEcon
Balmann, Alfons; Happe, Kathrin.
During the last decade a new modeling approach, known as agent-based modeling, was developed and made its way into several areas of research. It greatly benefited from rapid developments in computing technology. As for economics, agent-based modeling is based on the observation that social systems can be understood and modeled explicitly as systems of interacting agents. Because of their flexibility with respect to the representation of agents, the interactions between agents as well as the resulting dynamic and spatial relationships, these models offer a great variety of perspectives for future research. In this contribution, the underlying modeling concept is presented, and exemplary applications to the field of sector and policy analysis are discussed....
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agent-based modeling; Agent-based systems; Policy analysis; Sector modeling; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99009
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AGRICULTURAL POLICY ANALYSIS: DISCUSSION AgEcon
Schertz, Lyle P..
Agricultural economists are appropriately concerned about their profession's contributions to policy decisions. An examination of alternative approaches to transforming policy analyses is in order. There are opportunities to (a) focus on income and wealth distribution, (b) give attention to the public as a primary client, (c) avoid advocacy, and (d) adjust institutions in ways that encourage participation in policy analyses including the development of data systems.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Equity; Income and wealth distribution; Policy analysis; Public as a primary client; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15250
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Agricultural policy analysis in Finland with the AGMEMOD model: Lessons to be learnt? AgEcon
Niemi, Jyrki S.; Kettunen, Lauri.
The objective of this paper is to assess empirically the impacts of further reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the agri-food sector in Finland. To meet the objective, an econometric model for Finnish agriculture - built as a part of the AGMEMOD project - was utilised. The projection and policy simulations presented in the paper demonstrate that the model provides the basis for relatively straightforward baseline projection, and an initial framework for agricultural policy analysis. Yet, there remains substantial scope for further work on the model. In particular, the effects of big policy shocks are clearly not adequately captured by the model. The linear equations of supply together with low elasticities estimated from historical data...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Policy analysis; Econometric models; Finland; Commodity markets; Agricultural and Food Policy; C54; E17; Q18..
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99367
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Agricultural Trade Restrictiveness in the European Union and the United States AgEcon
Bureau, Jean-Christophe; Salvatici, Luca.
This paper provides a summary measure of the Uruguay Round tariff reduction commitments in the European Union and the United States, using the Mercantilistic Trade Restrictiveness Index (MTRI) as the tariff aggregator. We compute the index for agricultural commodity aggregates assuming a specific (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) functional form for import demand. The levels of the MTRI under the actual commitments of the Uruguay Round are computed and compared with two hypothetical cases, the Swiss Formula leading to a 36 percent average decrease in tariffs and a uniform 36 percent reduction of each tariff. This makes it possible to infer how reducing tariff dispersion would help improve market access in future trade agreements.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural prices; Income; International agricultural trade; Policy analysis; Tariffs and tariff factors; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18594
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An alternative policy evaluation of the British Columbia carbon tax: broadening the application of Elinor Ostrom’s design principles for managing common-pool resources Ecology and Society
Lacroix, Karine; School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria; lacroixk@uvic.ca; Richards, Garrett; School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria; gwr@uvic.ca.
Climate change is putting infrastructure, food supply, water resources, ecosystems, and human health at risk. These risks will be exacerbated depending on the degree of additional greenhouse gas emissions. Urgent action is needed to limit the severity of impacts associated with further warming. British Columbia (BC) has taken action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from carbon-based fuels by introducing a carbon tax in 2008. As an innovative approach to climate change mitigation, especially in North America, studies evaluating its effectiveness are valuable. We assessed the long-term viability potential of the BC carbon tax using common pool resource design principles, a novel application of the design principles to environmental policy. We found that...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: British Columbia carbon tax; Common-pool resource; Elinor Ostrom design principles; Policy analysis.
Ano: 2015
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Analysis of Trade and Environmental Policy Options on the Basis of a National Agricultural Sector Model with Multifunctional Outputs AgEcon
Weber, Gerald.
Studies on liberalisation normally do not take into account the external benefits and costs of agriculture. Empirical studies on the valuation of externalities should be integrated into quantitative modelling. MULTSIM is a national supply model of agriculture. Besides commodity output the model depicts also external benefit linked to landscape preservation and external environmental costs of agriculture. Internalisation scenarios are defined showing that the reduction of commodity-linked support and the introduction of land subsidies and intermediate input taxes have differentiated impacts on the farm types’ competitiveness. A comprehensive policy approach to multifunctional agriculture requires market feedbacks to be taken into account. Internalising...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Environmental costs; Multifunctional agriculture; Policy analysis; Agricultural sector modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98362
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Are EU spatial ex ante coexistence regulations proportional? AgEcon
Demont, Matty; Daems, W.; Dillen, Koen; Mathijs, Erik; Sausse, C.; Tollens, Eric.
The EU is currently struggling to implement coherent coexistence regulations on genetically modified (GM) and non-GM crops in all member states. While it stresses that any approach needs to be “proportionate to the aim of achieving coexistence”, very few studies have actually attempted to assess whether the proposed spatial ex ante coexistence regulations (SEACERs) satisfy this proportionality condition. In this article, we define proportionality as a functional relationship which is weakly increasing in the incentives for coexistence. We propose a spatial framework based on an existing landscape and introduce the new concept of shadow factor as a measure for the opportunity costs induced by SEACERs. This enables comparing the proportionality of (i) rigid...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Policy analysis; GIS; Shadow factor; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44191
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CAP-reform and the provision of non-commodity outputs in Brandenburg AgEcon
Happe, Kathrin; Damgaard, Martin; Osuch, Amanda; Sattler, Claudia; Zander, Peter; Uthes, Sandra; Schuler, Johannes; Piorr, Annette.
This paper presents an attempt to model the response of selected farms to decoupled direct payments and the associated impact on the provision of a defined set of non-commodity outputs (NCO’s) using a combined modelling approach consisting of the AgriPoliS and MODAM models. AgriPoliS focuses on the socio-economic dimension of multifunctionality at the individual farm and regional levels and explicitly models heterogeneous farms (in size, location and efficiency) within a competitive and dynamic environment. The linear-programming model MODAM allows a detailed representation of production processes and their impact on the environmental dimension of multifunctionality at the farm level. We simulate the impact of a uniform area payment and a fully decoupled...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Decoupling; Multifunctionality; Non-commodity outputs; Modelling; Simulation; Policy analysis; Ecological indicators; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97193
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CHARM : Atlas des Habitats des Ressources Marines de la Manche Orientale ArchiMer
Carpentier, Andre; Coppin, Franck; Dauvin, Jean-claude; Desroy, Nicolas; Dewarumez, Jean-marie; Eastwood, Paul D.; Ernande, Bruno; Harrop, Stuart; Kemp, Zarine; Koubbi, Philippe; Williams, Nigel Leader; Lefebvre, Alain; Lemoine, Michel; Loots, Christophe; S. Martin, Corinne; Meaden, Geoff J.; Ryan, Nick; Tan, Lei; Vaz, Sandrine; Walkey, Mike.
INTRODUCTION: The Dover Strait (Figure 1) connects the North Sea to the English Channel. Here, northern France and South-East England are at their closest. This narrow corridor, one of the world's busiest straits for maritime shipping, is a key economic area for numerous activities, such as leisure and tourism, international ports and shipping, plus the exploitation of living or abiotic marine resources. This area is a significant resource for fisheries because many commercial fish species are abundant there, but also because of the presence of nursery and spawning areas and migratory routes linked to specific environmental characteristics. The vulnerability of these resources, which are subjected to strong anthropogenic pressures, has brought together...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Survey; Landings; Larvae; Eastern channel; Benthos; Fish; Sig; Policy analysis; Species protection; Habita protection; Protected areas; Marine biodiversity conservation.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2005/rapport-2350.pdf
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China's Accession to the WTO: What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets? AgEcon
Fuller, Frank H.; Beghin, John C.; de Cara, Stephane; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Fang, Cheng; Matthey, Holger.
We analyze the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the FAPRI modeling framework. We incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in China's livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased cotton imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Accession; Agricultural trade; China; Policy analysis; Simulation models; Trade liberalization; World Trade Organization; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18522
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Development of a Partial Equilibrium Model of the EU Agriculture using Positivistic Mathematical Programming AgEcon
Yates, C.M.; Rehman, Tahir.
In order to respond to the current pressures on agriculture in the EU, the industry will have to go through fundamental structural change. Economic modelling provides the framework for understanding such changes. Mathematical programming is probably the most robust of all the modelling approaches notwithstanding several criticisms of the technique. Economists have long understood that profit maximisation is not the only objective of farmers. Although there are techniques to incorporate other objectives there does not exist a statistically rigorous method for estimating an appropriate objective functions. This problem also occurs at national and international levels of aggregation. This paper presents a new approach to modelling national and international...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Mathematical programming; Positivistic mathematical programming; Partial equilibrium; International trade; Policy analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24878
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DID THE 1995 FARM BILL ADDRESS THE CRITICAL ISSUES? DISCUSSION AgEcon
Salathe, Larry E..
In 1995, for the first time since the 1930s, the United States failed to pass new farm program legislation. The inability to pass farm legislation occurred despite bipartisan agreement that farm programs should continue the trend over the past decade of less government intervention. This paper discusses the sequence of events, the role of agricultural economists, the major issues, and the lessons learned from the 1995 Farm Bill debate. The trend toward declining government intervention in agriculture will require that the profession look increasingly to the private sector for solutions to the problems facing agriculture in the twenty-first century.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Congressional debate; Equity; Farm programs; Policy analysis; Price and income support; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15232
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DOING POLICY IN THE LAB! OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE USE OF MODEL-BASED POLICY ANALYSIS FOR COMPLEX DECISION-MAKING AgEcon
Happe, Kathrin; Balmann, Alfons.
For models to have an impact on policy-making, they need to be used. Exploring the relationships between policy models, model uptake and policy dynamics is the core of this article. What particular role can policy models play in the analysis and design of policies? Which factors facilitate (inhibit) the uptake of models by policy-makers? What are possible pathways to further develop modelling approaches to better meet the challenges facing agriculture today? In this paper, we address these issues from three different points of view, each of which should shed some light on the subject. The first point of view discusses models in the framework of complex adaptive systems and uncertainty. The second point of view looks at the dynamic interplay between...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Modelling; Complexity; Participatory modelling; Policy analysis; Model use; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6588
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"ECONOMIC CORRECTNESS" AND AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AgEcon
Christy, Ralph D..
This address is directed toward applied economists as they provide information to private and public decision makers. Central to this discussion is the role of markets as institutions in achieving society's desired ends. Current "economic correctness" -the view that unfettered markets are superior in achieving efficiency, growth, and welfare- has attempted to return a larger role to the private sector, but the relative roles of market-oriented versus government-oriented solutions to problems are often not well appraised. Views presented herein calls for agricultural economists to move simultaneously toward an understanding of the strategic behavior of firms in imperfectly competitive markets and toward an adoption of policy analysis consistent with a...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Market; Policy analysis; Strategic behavior; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 1993 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15221
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Evaluation of political control instruments for the Swiss alpine region AgEcon
Calabrese, Chiara; Mack, Gabriele.
This paper analyses different direct payments system for the Swiss alpine region based on the multi-agent model SWISSland. Moreover, the future demand and management of the alpine pastures are simulated under different scenarios until 2020. In the model, agents are representing existing summer farms and are able to interact with each other. The results imply that the current direct payment system for the Swiss alpine region is effective and able to maintain a stable development until 2020. Since the land management in the alpine region is the activity that provides public goods, it would be reasonable to enforce payments that maximize the area of summered land. A change to contributions coupled to the surfaces could achieve the desired management of the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Multi-agent models; Policy analysis; Simulation; Alpine region; Agricultural and Food Policy; C16; Q18..
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99370
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Expanding the Role of Systems Modeling: Considering Byproduct Generation from Biofuel Production Ecology and Society
Rosentrater, Kurt A; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service; krosentr@ngirl.ars.usda.gov.
The bioethanol industry has been experiencing rapid growth over the past several years, and is expected to continue to increase production for the foreseeable future. A vital component to the success of this industry is the sales and marketing of processing residues, which are primarily sold as dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS). Systems modeling, a technique that has been used to predict future demand for bioethanol, can also be used to determine potential byproduct generation rates. This paper discusses the development of one such model, and presents predicted generation of DDGS as well as carbon dioxide emissions from this industry through 2100. These simulation results underscore the growing need to actively pursue research focused on...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Response Palavras-chave: Bioethanol; Biofuels; Byproducts; Carbon dioxide emissions; Distillers grains; Dynamic systems modeling; Policy analysis; Residue generation.
Ano: 2006
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Exploring the Promise of Actor Analysis for Environmental Policy Analysis: Lessons from Four Cases in Water Resources Management Ecology and Society
Hermans, Leon M.; Delft University of Technology; l.m.hermans@tudelft.nl.
A persistent challenge for the development of well-informed and sound environmental policies is to improve the connection between environmental experts, decision makers, and other involved actors. Answers are sought in processes for social learning and adaptive co-management that engage experts, decision makers, and local actors in an interactive way of policy making. The preparation and organization of such interactive processes is usefully supported by actor analysis, which can help to identify the main actors to be involved in environmental policy making, to locate useful local knowledge, to identify potential conflicts, and to assess the feasibility of different policy measures. I explored the promise that actor analysis holds to support environmental...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Actor analysis; Environmental policy; Policy analysis; Stakeholder analysis; Water resources management.
Ano: 2008
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Greenhouse Gas and Nitrogen Fertilizer Scenarios for U.S. Agriculture and Global Biofuels AgEcon
Elobeid, Amani E.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Dumortier, Jerome; Rosas, Francisco.
This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Afforestation; Energy price; Ethanol tax credit; Fertilizer; Partial equilibrium model; Policy analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/107043
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