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| Wang, Dong; Parton, Kevin A.. |
| With the rapid development of the Chinese dairy industry, various researchers have examined the industry from many perspectives related to supply and demand. One of the most important factors for this industry is the total number of dairy cows and it is this aspect that will be addressed in this paper. This paper examines how economic and biological factors influenced the size of the Chinese dairy herd population using an autoregressive distributed lag model and a dairy herd inventory model. The estimated results showed that the biological process was dominating the development of the Chinese dairy herd. The ratio of milk to corn price, as an economic variable, is another factor that had an impact. Beef price, which was found to be an influential variable... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Dairy herd; China; Cattle inventory model; Projection; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10115 |
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| Dickey-collas, Mark; Payne, Mark R.; Trenkel, Verena M.; Nash, Richard D. M.. |
| The use of modelling approaches in marine science, and in particular fisheries science, is explored. We highlight that the choice of model used for an analysis should account for the question being posed or the context of the management problem. We examine a model-classification scheme based on Richard Levins' 1966 work suggesting that models can only achieve two of three desirable model attributes: realism, precision, and generality. Model creation, therefore, requires trading-off of one of these attributes in favour of the other two: however, this is often in conflict with the desires of end-users (i.e. mangers or policy developers). The combination of attributes leads to models that are considered to have empirical, mechanistic, or analytical... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Climate; Fisheries; GAM; Management; Prediction; Projection; Recruitment; Time-series analysis. |
| Ano: 2014 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00222/33371/32179.pdf |
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| Ferrari, Marcio Pinheiro; Ferreira, Carlos Alberto; Silva, Helton Damin da; Trevisan, Roberto. |
| This paper deals with the prognosis of the individual volumetric growth of Eucalyptus species in the Brazilian South Region. It was accomplished in a fertilizer trial with Eucalyptus dunnii and a competition trial among species (E. bicostata, E. “cambiju” - natural hybrid, E. deanei and E. viminalis) implanted in Vila Velha, PR. The method of successive regressions, modified to the exponential form, including the volume at three years of age and survival was applied. The results gave evidence of acceptable efficiency of the method to estimate individual volumetric growth of the trees of the stands, especially for E. deanei and E. dunnii, species well adapted to the region. However, species with low growth potential, for example E. bicostata, presented low... |
| Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
Palavras-chave: Eucalyptus; Individual growth; Volume; Projection; Survival Eucalipto; Prognose; Volume individual; Sobrevivência. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://pfb.cnpf.embrapa.br/pfb/index.php/pfb/article/view/223 |
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| Lu, Wencong C.; Kersten, Lutz. |
| Based on China's Agricultural Regional Market Equilibrium Model (CARMEM), the paper projects the production and consumption of rice, wheat and maize in China toward 2010 at both national and regional level under two different scenarios. The results show that China can ensure a stable grain market development under more liberalized internal and external conditions. Transmission of the world market prices as projected by the World Bank (2003) to the Chinese domestic market would lead to a long-run recovery of the growth in grain production. Total production of paddy rice, wheat and maize is forecast to increase from 386 million tons in the base period 2002 to over 420 million tons in 2010. However, the rate of grain self-supply will be 91% due to higher... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: China; Grain market; Projection; Multimarket model; Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Q11; Q13; Q18. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25662 |
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