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| Registros recuperados: 15 | |
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| This report provides summaries of the papers and discussions at the third Consortium on Trade Research held in Washington, D.C., June 23-24, 1981. The cochairmen of the consortium were T. Kelley White, Economic Research Service (ERS), George E. Rossmiller, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), and Vernon Sorenson, Michigan State University. The Consortium focused on world demand for agricultural imports and the policies and conditions in low-income, middle-income, and centrally planned countries that influence import demand. An overview paper by Dewain Rahe and Cheryl Christensen assessed future global prospects for agricultural trade. Peter Timmer's paper investigated conceptual and empirical problems in analyzing import demand. Three of the papers... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Trade; Import demand; Projections; State trading; Food reserves; Stockholding; Bilateral agreements; Low-income countries; Middle-income countries; Centrally planned countries; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 1982 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51268 |
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| Reynolds, Sanri. |
| This paper presents a partial equilibrium model for the South African table grape industry, focussing on the fresh market segments. The model is a dynamic recursive model solving various equations simultaneously, reaching a state of equilibrium once total production equals total demand and equilibrium is established in the export- and domestic market for fresh grapes. Results over the next eight years are presented in the form of a baseline outlook and two “what if” questions. Answering these questions quantifies the sensitivity of the export price to changes in demand and supply. The model is housed and maintained in the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy at the Western Cape Department of Agriculture and Universities of Pretoria and Stellenbosch. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium; Table grape industry; Projections; Demand and Price Analysis; Productivity Analysis. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53345 |
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| Achterbosch, Thom J.; Dopfer, Dorte D.V.; Tabeau, Andrzej A.. |
| Projections of live cattle trade in the EU-25 assist to reduce the uncertainty on the risk of importing animal diseases in the Netherlands. The accession of 10 member states to the European Union has a potentially large impact on livestock trade in the EU as it liberalized in one stroke a trade that was administered by the Management Committee for Beef until May 1, 2004. The approach combines AG-Memod partial equilibrium with GTAP general equilibrium modelling in order to estimate the impact of quota liberalization. Quota removal will substantially alter the regional structure of livestock imports, as the share of new EU member states in the east triples to 25%. The risk outlook indicates a need for enhanced animal health services in the new member states. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Livestock; Animal disease; Trade; Projections; Quota; EU-enlargement; Risk and Uncertainty; F17; I18; Q17. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24558 |
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| Blisard, Noel; Variyam, Jayachandran N.; Cromartie, John. |
| By 2020, the effects of demographic changes and income growth will increase per capita spending on food 7.1 percent. Income growth alone, which will effect spending increases of almost 10 percent on away-from-home foods and 3 percent on at-home foods, will raise per capita food spending about 6 percent. Expansion of the Nation's population will drive growth in food demand and, combined with rising incomes and other demographic changes, is projected to boost total U.S. food spending 26.3 percent. On a national level, the slow but steady growth of the population will result in little variation among expenditure growth levels of individual food groups. The largest projected increase is for fruits, up 27.5 percent, while the smallest is for both beef and... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Household food expenditures; Income; Demographics; Projections; Consumer Expenditure Survey; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34045 |
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| Alig, Ralph J.; Adams, Darius M.; McCarl, Bruce A.. |
| The forest and agriculture sectors are linked by having a portion of their land bases suitable for use in either sector. A substantial part of the southern land base is suitable for either forestry or agriculture use, with most of forestation on U.S. agriculture land in the South. We examine how land exchanges between forestry and agriculture are influenced by specific federal conservation and farm support policies, including changes in the Conservation Reserve Program. Reallocation of land is a significant part of the sectors' responses to the policies, along with intensification of timber management on existing southern forests. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Conservation; Forest sector; Land use; Projections; Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15557 |
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| Landes, Rip; Westcott, Paul C.; Wainio, John. |
| This report provides baseline projections for international supply, demand, and trade for major agricultural commodities to 2007. It is a companion report to USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections, providing the foreign country details supporting those projections. Projections of strong global economic growth, particularly in developing countries, combined with more open foreign markets and the emergence of China as a major bulk commodity importer, support strong projected gains in U.S. farm exports. The value of total U.S. agricultural exports is projected to rise from a record $57.3 billion in FY 1997 to nearly $85 billion in 2007. The projections were completed based on information available as of December 1997, and reflect a composite of model results... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Commodities; International; Projections; Supply; Use; Trade; Production Economics. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33951 |
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| Sedjo, Roger A.; Goetzl, Alberto. |
| This discussion paper reports on a Workshop on Wood Fiber Supply Modeling held October 3-4, 1996 in Washington, DC. The purpose of this discussion paper is to provide an overview of some of the modeling work being done related to timber supply modeling and some of the issues related to the more useful application of wood fiber supply and projections models. This paper includes brief presentations of three commonly used long-term timber projections and forecasting models: the Timber Assessment Market Model (TAMM) of the Forest Service; the Cintrafor Global Trade Model (CGTM) of the University of Washington; and the Timber Supply Model (TSM) of Resources for the Future. Also, issues related to the useful of the models are addressed as well as a discussion of... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Timber models; Market forecasting models; Wood fiber supply; Projections; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C62; Q21; Q23. |
| Ano: 1997 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10486 |
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| Ludena, Carlos E.; Hertel, Thomas W.; Preckel, Paul V.; Foster, Kenneth A.; Nin Pratt, Alejandro. |
| There is considerable interest in projections of future productivity growth in agriculture. Whether one is interested in the outlook for global commodity markets, future patterns of international trade, or the interactions between land use, deforestation and ecological diversity, the rate of productivity growth in agriculture is an essential input. Yet solid projections for this variable have proven elusive particularly on a global basis. This is due, in no small part, to the difficulty in measuring historical productivity growth. The purpose of this paper is to report the latest time series evidence on total factor productivity growth for crops, ruminants and non-ruminant livestock, on a global basis. We then follow with tests for convergence amongst... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Malmquist index; Productivity; Convergence; Projections; Crops; Livestock; Productivity Analysis; D24; O13; O47; Q10. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25392 |
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| Ivanic, Maros; Martin, William J.. |
| Constraints on resources, growth in demand, and a slowdown in agricultural productivity raise concerns that food prices may rise substantially over the next decades. The impacts of such higher prices on the poor and the required mitigating policy responses to this problem remain unclear. This paper uses a global general equilibrium model, projections of global growth and microeconomic household models, to project potential implications for incomes, food production and poverty. We find that higher agricultural productivity would generally lower poverty, with different impacts depending where the productivity growth occurs, while protection policies that reduce imports would generally raise poverty. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Poverty; Growth; Projections; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61098 |
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| Sedjo, Roger A.; Lyon, Kenneth S.. |
| This study involves an update of our earlier Timber Supply Model, which was fully developed in our book, The Adequacy Of Global Timber Supply by Sedjo and Lyon (1990), published by Resources for the Future. The new version, called Timber Supply Model 1996 (TSM96), uses an economic market supply/demand approach to project an intertemporal time path of the world's price and output level of industrial wood. As did the original TSM, the TSM96 provides projections of the time path of the equilibrium output levels of the several regions into which the world has been subdivided. A major new feature of TSM96 is that industrial wood, treated as homogeneous in the earlier study, has be subdivided into two different wood types -- pulpwood and solidwood. The supply of... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Timber models; Markets; Optimal control; Projections; Timber supply; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C62; Q21; Q23. |
| Ano: 1996 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10696 |
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| Payne, Mark R.; Barange, Manuel; Cheung, William W. L.; Mackenzie, Brian R.; Batchelder, Harold P.; Cormon, Xochitl; Eddy, Tyler D.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hollowed, Anne B.; Jones, Miranda C.; Link, Jason S.; Neubauer, Philipp; Ortiz, Ivonne; Queirós, Ana M.; Paula, José Ricardo. |
| Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Initialization uncertainty; Parametric uncertainty; Projections; Scenario uncertainty; Structural uncertainty; Uncertainty.. |
| Ano: 2016 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00301/41220/40392.pdf |
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| Rosas, Francisco. |
| We introduce a world fertilizers model that is capable of producing fertilizer demand projections by crop, by country, by macronutrients, and by year. For each crop, the most relevant countries in terms of production, consumption, or trade are explicitly modeled. The remaining countries are modeled, for each crop, within a regional aggregate. The nutrient coverage includes nitrogen (N), phosphorous (P), and potassium (K). In this report we present the data and procedures used to set up the model as well as the assumptions made. The fertilizer model interacts with the yield equations of the FAPRI-ISU model (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at Iowa State University), and by means of a set of production elasticities, projects each nutrient’s... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Fertilizer; Nitrogen; Phosphorous; Policy analysis; Potassium; Projections; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Production Economics. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103223 |
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| Registros recuperados: 15 | |
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