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A Numerical Analysis of Optimal Extraction and Trade of Oil under Climate Policy AgEcon
Massetti, Emanuele; Sferra, Fabio.
We introduce endogenous investments for increasing conventional and non-conventional oil extraction capacity in the integrated assessment model WITCH. The international price of oil emerges as the Nash equilibrium of a non-cooperative game. When carbon emissions are not constrained, oil is used throughout the century, with unconventional oil taking over conventional oil from mid-century onward. When carbon emissions are constrained, oil consumption drops dramatically and the oil price is lower than in the BaU. Unconventional oil is not extracted. Regional imbalances in the distribution of stabilisation costs are magnified and the oil-exporting countries bear, on average, costs three times larger than in previous estimates.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Integrated Assessment; Oil Production; Oil Revenues; Oil Trade; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; E17; F17; Q32; Q43; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96495
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A Spatiotemporal Fixed Effects Estimation of U.S. State-Level Carbon Dioxide Emissions AgEcon
Burnett, J. Wesley; Bergstrom, John C..
One of the major shortcommings of past environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) studies is that the spatiotemporal aspects within the data have largely been ignored. By ignoring the spatial aspect of pollution emissions past estimates of the EKC implicitly assume that a region’s emissions are unaffected by events in neighboring regions (i.e., assume there are no transboundary pollution emissions between neighbors). By ignoring the spatial aspects within the data several past estimates of the EKC could have generated biased or inconsistent regression results. By ignoring the temporal aspect within the data several past estimates of the EKC could have generated spurious regression results or misspecified t and F statistics. To address this potential...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Pollution Economics; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Spatial Econometrics; Dynamic Panel Data; Carbon Dioxide Emissions; Global Climate Change; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C33; C51; Q43; Q50; Q53; Q58.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103580
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A Tale of Two Countries: Emissions Scenarios for China and India AgEcon
Massetti, Emanuele.
The aim of the paper is to present evidence that China and India are, and will remain, two very different actors in international negotiations to control global warming. We base our conclusions on historical data and on scenarios until 2050. The Business-as-Usual scenario (BaU) is compared to four Emissions Tax scenarios to draw insights on major transformations in energy use and in energy supply and to assess the possible contribution of China and India to a future international climate architecture. We study whether or not the Copenhagen intensity targets require more action than the BaU scenario and we assess whether the emissions reductions induced by the four tax scenarios are compatible with the G8 and MEF pledge to reduce global emissions by 50% in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change; China; India; Energy Efficiency; Energy and Development; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q32; Q43; Q54; Q43; O53; P52.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101378
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Accountability in Government and Regulatory Policies: Theory and Evidence AgEcon
Guerriero, Carmine.
Revised version of paper added 01/16/09
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Election; Agency; Judges; Regulation; Electricity; K23; L51; Q43.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37849
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Adaptation Can Help Mitigation: An Integrated Approach to Post-2012 Climate Policy AgEcon
Bosello, Francesco; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica.
The latest round of international negotiations in Copenhagen led to a set of commitments on emission reductions which are unlikely to stabilise global warming below or around 2°C. As a consequence, in the absence of additional ambitious policy measures, adaptation will be needed to address climate-related damages. What is the role of adaptation in this setting? How is it optimally allocated across regions and time? To address these questions, this paper analyses the optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation expenditures in a cost-effective setting in which countries cooperate to achieve a long-term stabilisation target (550 CO2-eq). It uses an Integrated Assessment Model (AD-WITCH) that describes the relationships between different adaptation modes...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change Impacts; Mitigation; Adaptation; Integrated Assessment Model; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54; Q56; Q43.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116907
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An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model AgEcon
Zhu, Lei; Zhang, ZhongXiang; Fan, Ying.
This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, our model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled our model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In our empirical setting, we have selected China as an investor country and Indonesia as an...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Overseas Oil Investment; Project Value; Real Options; Least Squares Monte-Carlo; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q41; Q43; Q48; G31; O13; O22; C63.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119106
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Assessing China’s Energy Conservation and Carbon Intensity: How Will the Future Differ from the Past? AgEcon
Zhang, ZhongXiang.
As an important step towards building a “harmonious society” through “scientific development”, China has incorporated for the first time in its five-year economic plan an energy input indicator as a constraint. While it achieved a quadrupling of its GDP while cutting its energy intensity by about three quarters between 1980 and 2000, China has had limited success in achieving its own 20% energy-saving goal set for 2010 to date. Despite this great challenge at home, just prior to the Copenhagen climate summit, China pledged to cut its carbon intensity by 40-45% by 2020 relative its 2005 levels to help to reach an international climate change agreement at Copenhagen or beyond. This raises the issue of whether such a pledge is ambitious or just represents...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy Saving; Renewable Energy; Carbon Intensity; Post-Copenhagen Climate Negotiations; Climate Commitments; China; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q42; Q43; Q48; Q52; Q53; Q54; Q58.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92837
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Breaking the Impasse in International Climate Negotiations: A New Direction for Currently Flawed Negotiations and a Roadmap for China to 2050 AgEcon
Zhang, ZhongXiang.
China’s unilateral pledge to cut its carbon intensity by 40-45 percent by 2020 relative to its 2005 levels raises both the stringency issue, and given that China’s pledge is in the form of carbon intensity, reliability issues concerning China’s statistics on energy and GDP. Moreover, as long as China’s commitments differ in form from those of other major greenhouse gas emitters, China is constantly confronted with both criticism on its carbon intensity commitment being less stringent and the threats of trade measures. In response to these concerns and to put China in a positive position, this paper will map out a realistic roadmap for China’s specific climate commitments towards 2050, with its main distinguishing features including China taking on absolute...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Carbon Intensity; Post-Copenhagen Climate Change Negotiations; Climate Commitments; China; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q42; Q43; Q48; Q52; Q53; Q54; Q58.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108263
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Breaks and Trends in OECD Countries’ Energy-GDP Ratios AgEcon
Liddle, Brantley.
This paper uses the econometrics of endogenous structural breaks to examine changes in energy intensity for OECD countries over 1960-2009. Nearly all OECD countries currently have significant negatively trending energy-GDP ratios; but for several countries those negative trends are recent, and two countries have recent significant positive trends. For several countries, energy intensity had a significant positive trend followed by a break and then a significant negative trend. Those break-dates, however, appear to have little to do with level of development (GDP per capita). Instead, among the likely causes of break timing are the volatile energy prices of the 1970s and early 1980s and the increased concern for the environment in the late 1960s and early...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Energy intensity; Endogenous structural breaks; Modeling environment and development; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q43; O13.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100578
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Can Climate Change Mitigation Policy Benefit the Israeli Economy? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis AgEcon
Palatnik, Ruslana Rachel; Shechter, Mordechai.
The growing attention to global warming due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the process of fossil fuel--based energy production is expressed in the Kyoto Protocol, which prescribes, on average, a 7 percent reduction in GHG emissions for developed countries. Although Israel was not included in the list of the obligated countries ("Annex A"), it should consider the economic implications of participating in the emission reduction effort, as such a commitment becomes highly feasible following the Bali roadmap which oblige a successor to the Kyoto Protocol to launch negotiations including all parties to the UNFCCC on a future framework, stressing the role of cooperative action and of common though differentiated responsibility. This study aimed to quantify...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Computable General Equilibrium; Climate Change; Environmental Policy; Double Dividend; Israel; Environmental Economics and Policy; Public Economics; D58; H23; Q43; Q48; Q52.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6361
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Capital Malleability and the Macroeconomic Costs of Climate Policy AgEcon
Lanzi, Elisa; Sue Wing, Ian.
This paper argues for introducing the role of capital malleability into the analysis of environmental policies. The issue is explored by means of a theoretical model, a numerical analysis and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Considering the three approaches together is fundamental in obtaining theory-compatible policy-relevant results. The model outcomes reveal differences between results under separate assumptions regarding the malleability of capital. When capital is imperfectly malleable a carbon policy is less effective than under the assumption of perfect malleability of capital. Therefore, it is important that, especially for the analysis of short-term environmental regulations, the issue of capital malleability is taken into...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: General Equilibrium; CGE Models; Climate Change Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; D58; H22; Q43.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59476
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Chicago Board of Trade Ethanol Contract Efficiency AgEcon
Funk, Samuel M.; Zook, James E.; Featherstone, Allen M..
Firms producing ethanol may find management of the price risk associated with production of this leading alternative fuel a key factor to continued success. As with other agricultural commodities, the influence and ability of futures contracts to serve as a risk management tool deserves attention.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Contract efficiency; Ethanol; Futures contracts; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; Q43; M31.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6811
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Climate Change, Energy Demand and Market Power in a General Equilibrium Model of the World Economy AgEcon
Roson, Roberto; Bosello, Francesco; De Cian, Enrica.
Future energy demand will be affected by changes in prices and income, but also by other factors, like temperature levels. This paper draws upon an econometric study, disentangling the contribution of temperature in the determination of the annual regional demand for energy goods. Combining estimates of temperature elasticities with scenarios of future climate change, it is possible to assess variations in energy demand induced (directly) by the global warming. We use this information to simulate a change in the demand structure of households in a CGE model of the world economy, in a set of assessment exercises. The changing demand structure triggers a structural adjustment process, influencing trade flows, regional competitiveness of industries and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change; Energy; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Imperfect Competition; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; D58; F12; Q43; Q54.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9095
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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies In Italy. An Economic Assessment AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; Sgobbi, Alessandra.
In this paper, the economic value of the impacts of climate change is assessed for different Italian economic sectors and regions. Sectoral and regional impacts are then aggregated to provide a macroeconomic estimate of variations in GDP induced by climate change in the next decades. Autonomous adaptation induced by changes in relative prices and in stocks of natural and economic resources is fully taken into account. The model also considers international trade effects. Results show that in Italy aggregate GDP losses induced by climate change are likely to be small. However, some economic sectors (e.g. tourism) and the alpine regions will suffer significant economic damages.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Impacts; Climate Change; Adaptation; GDP Losses; Tourism; Environmental Economics and Policy; Political Economy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; O13; Q43; Q5; R13.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6373
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Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in Fast-Growing Countries: The Benefits of Early Action AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Tavoni, Massimo; Carraro, Carlo.
This paper builds on the assumption that OECD countries are (or will soon be) taking actions to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These actions, however, will not be sufficient to control global warming, unless developing countries also get involved in the cooperative effort to reduce GHG emissions. This paper investigates the best short-term strategies that emerging economies can adopt in reacting to OECD countries’ mitigation effort, given the common long-term goal to prevent excessive warming without hampering economic growth. Results indicate that developing countries would incur substantial economic losses by following a myopic strategy that disregards climate in the short-run, and that their optimal investment behaviour is to anticipate the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy-economy Modeling; Climate Policy; Developing Countries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54; Q55; Q43.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52541
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Climate Policy and the Optimal Balance between Mitigation, Adaptation and Unavoided Damage AgEcon
Bosello, Francesco; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica.
It has become commonly accepted that a successful climate strategy should compound mitigation and adaptation. The accurate combination between adaptation and mitigation that can best address climate change is still an open question. This paper proposes a framework that integrates mitigation, adaptation, and climate change residual damages into an optimisation model. This set-up is used to provide some insights on the welfare maximising resource allocation between mitigation and adaptation, on their optimal timing, and on their marginal contribution to reducing vulnerability to climate change. The optimal mix between three different adaptation modes (reactive adaptation, anticipatory adaptation, and investment in innovation for adaptation purposes) within...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change Impacts; Mitigation; Adaptation; Integrated Assessment Model; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54; Q56; Q43.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60681
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Climate Policy and the Optimal Extraction of High- and Low-Carbon Fossil Fuels AgEcon
van der Werf, Edwin; Smulders, Sjak.
We study how restricting CO2 emissions affects resource prices and depletion over time. We use a Hotelling-style model with two non-renewable fossil fuels that differ in their carbon content (e.g. coal and natural gas) and in addition are imperfect substitutes in final good production. We show that an economy facing a CO2 flow-constraint may substitute towards the relatively dirty input. As the economy tries to maximise output per unit of emissions it is not only carbon content that matters: productivity matters as well. With an announced constraint the economy first substitutes towards the less productive input such that more of the productive input is available when constrained. Preliminary empirical results suggest that it is cost-effective to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Non-Renewable Resources; Input Substitution; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; O13; Q31; Q43.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8218
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Conditions Necessary for Private Investment in the Ethanol Industry AgEcon
Kenkel, Philip L.; Holcomb, Rodney B..
While agricultural economics literature has become rife with the economics of ethanol production and cellulosic ethanol feedstock production, little has been written about capital investment necessary for the magnitude of industry development mandated by the Energy Security and Independence Act of 2007. Financing the development of the ethanol industry to meet the 36 billion gallon production capacity set for 2022 (with 16 billion gallons from cellulosic ethanol) will require capital investments exceeding $100 billion for production facilities, plus extensive investment in feedstock establishment and transportation/handling infrastructure. Federal support associated with political mandates does not address all of the financial issues related with the...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biofuel policy; Cellulosic ethanol; Industry legitimacy; Private investment; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q13; Q42; Q43; Q48.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53092
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Copenhagen and Beyond: Reflections on China’s Stance and Responses AgEcon
Zhang, ZhongXiang.
China had been singled out by Western politicians and media for dragging its feet on international climate negotiations at Copenhagen, the accusations previously always targeted on the U.S. To put such a criticism into perspective, this paper provides some reflections on China’s stance and reactions at Copenhagen. While China’s reactions are generally well rooted because of realities at home, some reactions could have been handled more effectively for a better image of China. The paper also addresses the reliability of China’s statistics on energy and GDP, the issue crucial to the reliability of China’s carbon intensity commitments. The paper discusses flaws in current international climate negotiations and closes with my suggestion that international...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Copenhagen Climate Negotiations; Emissions Reductions; Carbon Intensity Target; Binding Emissions Caps; Statistics on Energy and GDP; Coal and Energy Consumption; China; USA; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q41; Q43; Q48; Q52; Q54; Q58; O53.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92836
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Discussion: Revisiting Macroeconomic Linkages to Agriculture: The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables and the Oil Sector on Farm Prices and Income AgEcon
Penson, John B., Jr..
Periodically, events occur in the domestic and global economies that remind agricultural economists that macroeconomics matter. This was evident in the early 1980s when the Federal Reserve responded to double-digit inflation by driving interest rates to post–World War II period highs. The Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, rising oil prices this past decade, and current stress in domestic and overseas financial markets serve to remind us again that externalities can have an effect on the economic performance and financial strength of U.S. agriculture. These effects are transmitted through interest rates, inflation, unemployment, real gross domestic product, and exchange rates.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Macroeconomics; Linkages; Net farm income; Exchange rates; Interest rates; Real GDP; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Political Economy; Public Economics; E31; E44; Q41; Q43.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92583
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