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| Registros recuperados: 1.657 | |
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| Griffiths, William E.. |
| A Bayesian approach is used to provide a framework for optimal input allocation for a stochastic production function with uncertain parameters. The chosen production function is a single-input version of a function which can exhibit positive or negative marginal risk. The sensitivity of optimal input allocation to the degree of risk aversion, the marginal risk parameter, and the assumed level of uncertainty about the parameters is examined. Using an example problem it is shown that parameter uncertainty will not always lead to a lower input level when a producer is risk averse. Some problems with the production function specification are uncovered, as is the incompatibility of some expected utility and stochastic assumptions. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1986 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22898 |
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| Trapp, James N.. |
| The Market Risk Game is a computerized simulation game available for IBM PC and Apple II microcomputers that is designed to give realistic practice in making decisions in a risky market environment. It illustrates the use of hedging and put options to reduce risk in livestock and grain markets. It is best suited for individuals who have a basic understanding of commodity trading, but who need experience to solidify their knowledge to a functional level. Through the game this is done without facing the risk of an actual investment or requiring the time involved in watching a market over an extended period. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1989 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30178 |
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| Nganje, William E.; Wachenheim, Cheryl J.; Lesch, William C.. |
| The dichotomy between perceptions of the acceptability of risk associated with genetically modified (GM) foods and willingness to consume GM foods is investigated. Results indicate that some consumers are willing to consume GM foods even though they may perceive such foods as somewhat unsafe, with determinants such as self-perceived knowledge about the availability of GM foods and altruistic motives having positive and significant effects on their consumption decisions. Efforts toward decreasing perception of risk and ultimately increasing acceptance of and demand for GM foods should address issues related to their altruistic characteristics and outrage. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Consumer/Household Economics; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99792 |
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| Ford, Beth Pride; Musser, Wesley N.. |
| Previous studies of historical risk have used either nominal or real data to calculate risk measures for agricultural prices and income. However, the effects of using nominal and real data have not been evaluated. This study utilizes theoretical variance approximation relationships to examine variances from detrended real and nominal time series. The relationships between variances are derived for quarterly U.S. farm milk prices for 1960-72, 1973-80, and 1981-90. Contrary to common intuitive arguments, results indicate that variances of real time series can be larger than variances of nominal series. While definitive conclusions are not possible, several reasons for using nominal data in risk analysis are given. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Detrending; Indices; Nominal data; Risk measurement; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1995 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15259 |
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| Bailey, Elizabeth; Boisvert, Richard N.. |
| This paper contributes to an evaluation of the performance of ground nuts in drought-prone areas by estimating yield response functions to water from experimental data. They are combined with meteorological data to simulate yields by location. Efficient genotypes are identified by several risk criteria. Genotype rankings based on these risk criteria and simulated yields are different from those based on experimental data and plant scientists' traditional methods of evaluation. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1989 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22997 |
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| Flaten, Ola; Lien, Gudbrand D.; Tveteras, Ragnar. |
| Agriculture and aquaculture have common features associated with their biological nature affecting risk exposure of the businesses. The aim of this paper is to compare risk exposure in salmon farming and agricultural enterprises in Norway by using an implicit error component model to examine the risk structure of yields, prices and economic returns at the farm level. Results indicate a higher farm-level year-to-year variability in yields, prices and economic returns in salmon farming than in agricultural enterprises. The variability in livestock enterprises was generally lower than for crop enterprises. Return on assets was highest in salmon farming with an average annual return of 9.2%. All of the agricultural farm types exhibited a negative average... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Variability; Norway; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44052 |
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| Vergara, Oscar. |
| The flooding situation in 2011 is similar in nature to the Great Mississippi Flood of 1993, but different in the particulars. First, the timing of the flood within the growing season is different. Second, the two floods occurred in different regions, with the 1993 flood affecting a portion of the Corn Belt and the 2011 flood affecting a region farther south. While floodwaters have inundated several million acres of cropland in 2011, yield losses from delayed planting are expected to be limited. Furthermore, the affected states from the current flood are primarily Group 2 states under the current SRA, which are provided with greater reinsurance protection by the government than the Group 1 states. |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Great Mississippi Flood; 1993; 2011; SRA; Crop Insurance Losses; AIR Model; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; C; Q. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104897 |
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| Mandal, Maitreyi; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan. |
| Mean-Variance theory of portfolio construction is still regarded as the main building block of modern portfolio theory. However, many authors have suggested that the mean-variance criterion, conceived by Markowitz (1952), is not optimal for asset allocation, because the investor expected utility function is better proxied by a function that uses higher moments and because returns are distributed in a non-Normal way, being asymmetric and/or leptokurtic, so the mean-variance criterion cannot correctly proxy the expected utility with non-Normal returns. Copulas are a very useful tool to deal with non standard multivariate distribution. Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have emerged as a golden measure of risk in recent times. Though... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Portfolio Choice; Downside Risk Protection; Value at risk; Copula; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; C52; G11; Q14. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124387 |
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| Hennessy, David A.. |
| The modeling of price risk in the theory and practice of commodity risk management has been developed far beyond that of crop yield risk. This is in large part due to the use of plausible stochastic price processes. We use the Pólya urn to identify and develop a model of the crop yield expectation stochastic process over a growing season. The process allows a role for agronomic events, such as growing degree days. The model is internally consistent in adhering to the martingale property. The limiting distribution is the beta, commonly used in yield modeling. By applying binomial tree analysis, we show how to use the framework to study hedging decisions and crop valuation. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Growing degree days; Martingale; Pólya urn; Stochastic process.; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54829 |
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| Registros recuperados: 1.657 | |
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