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2001 NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK: REPRESENTATIVE FARMS 2001-2010 AgEcon
Taylor, Richard D.; Koo, Won W.; Swenson, Andrew L..
Net farm income for most representative farms in 2010 will be lower than in 2000. Low profit farms, which consist of 25% of the farms in the study, may have negative net farm income throughout the forecasting period, and may not have financial resiliency to survive. Cropland prices and cash rental rates are projected to increase slightly except in the Red River Valley where they are projected to fall. Debt-to-asset ratios for most farms will increase slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low profit and small size farms are higher than those for large and high profit farms.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Net Farm Income; Debt-to-asset Ratios; Cropland Prices; Land Rental Rates; Farm Operating Expenses; Capitalization Rate; Risk; Farm Management.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23540
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2006 NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK: REPRESENTATIVE FARMS, 2006-2015 AgEcon
Taylor, Richard D.; Koo, Won W.; Swenson, Andrew L..
Net farm income for nearly all representative farms in 2015 is projected to be higher than in 2005. Low-profit farms, which comprise 20% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income. Commodity prices and yields are projected to increase slightly faster than costs, which will increase net farm income. Cropland prices and cash rental rates are projected to increase slightly in all regions. Debt-to-asset ratios for most farms will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Debt-to-asset ratios; Cropland prices; Land rental rates; Farm operating expenses; Capitalization rate; Risk; Farm Management.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23563
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2007 North Dakota Agricultural Outlook: Representative Farms, 2007-2016 AgEcon
Taylor, Richard D.; Koo, Won W.; Swenson, Andrew L..
Net farm income for nearly all representative farms in 2016 is projected to be higher than in 2006. Low-profit farms, which comprise 20% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income. Commodity prices and yields are projected to increase slightly faster than costs, which will increase net farm income. Cropland prices and cash rental rates are projected to increase slightly in all regions. Debt-to-asset ratios for all farms will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to remain near the 0.50 level.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Debt-to-asset ratios; Cropland prices; Land rental rates; Farm operating expenses; Capitalization rate; Risk; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7641
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2009 North Dakota Agricultural Outlook: Representative Farms, 2009-2018 AgEcon
Taylor, Richard D.; Koo, Won W.; Swenson, Andrew L..
Net farm income for all representative farms in 2018 is projected to be lower than in 2008. Low-profit farms, which comprise 20% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income. Commodity prices are expected to fall from current levels however the final level is unknown. Commodity yields are projected to increase at historical trend-line rates and production expenses are expected to return to normal growth rates after 2009. Debt-to-asset ratios for all farms except for the low profit farm will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to increase to about 0.50.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Debt-to-asset ratios; Cropland prices; Land rental rates; Farm operating expenses; Capitalization rate; Risk; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54246
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2011 North Dakota Agricultural Outlook: Representative Farms, 2011-2020 AgEcon
Taylor, Richard D.; Koo, Won W.; Swenson, Andrew L..
Net farm income in North Dakota was at record levels for most representative farms in 2010. However income in 2020 is projected to be lower than in 2010. Commodity prices are expected to decrease slowly from current levels. Commodity yields are projected to increase at historical trend-line rates and production expenses are expected to return to normal growth rates. Debt-to-asset ratios for all farms except for the low profit farm will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to increase slightly.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Debt-to-asset ratios; Cropland prices; Land rental rates; Farm operating expenses; Capitalization rate; Risk; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115629
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A Categorical Data Analysis on Risks in Agriculture AgEcon
Uematsu, Hiroki; Mishra, Ashok K..
This study compares farm operators’ risk perceptions and actual realization of risk attitudes revealed through off-farm labor, enterprise diversification, and use of contracts, crop insurance, and other types of insurance, using data from 2001 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). Results from ordered logit model and multivariate probit models unexpectedly found that risk loving farmers are more likely to employ risk management strategies.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Labor and Human Capital; Marketing; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q10; Q12.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98839
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A Dynamic Decision Model of Technology Adoption under Uncertainty: Case of Herbicide-Resistant Rice AgEcon
Annou, Mamane Malam; Wailes, Eric J.; Thomsen, Michael R..
Herbicide-resistant (HR) rice technology is a potential tool for control of red rice in commercial rice production. Using an ex ante mathematical programming framework, this research presents an empirical analysis of HR rice technology adoption under uncertainty. The analysis accounts for stochastic germination of red rice and sheath blight to model a profit maximization problem of crop rotation among HR rice, regular rice, and soybeans. The results demonstrate that risk attitudes and technology efficiency determine adoption rates and optimal rotation patterns.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biotechnology; Herbicide resistance; Mathematical programming; Profit maximization; Rice; Risk; Rotation; Technology; Adoption; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Q16; Q18; O33; C61.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43724
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A dynamic dual model under state-contingent production uncertainty AgEcon
Serra, Teresa; Stefanou, Spiro E.; Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M..
In this paper we assess how production costs and capital accumulation patterns in agriculture have evolved over time, by paying special attention to the influence of risk. A dynamic state-contingent cost minimization approach is applied to assess production decisions in US agriculture over the last century. Results suggest the relevance of allowing for the stochastic nature of the production function which permits to capture both the differences in the costs of producing under different states of nature, the differences in the evolution of these costs over time, as well as the differential impacts of different states of nature on investment decisions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; State-contingent; Dynamic model; Investment decisions; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; D21.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61353
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A Dynamic Risk Optimization Model for Evaluating Profitable and Feasible Water Management Plans AgEcon
Grove, Bennie; Oosthuizen, L.K.; Backeberg, G.R..
Currently the South African government is advocating the cultivation of high valued crops and more efficient use of available water resources through the adoption o f more efficient irrigation technology and irrigation scheduling. A requirement of the National Water Act (Act 36 of 1998) is the compilation of water management plans. The main objective of this paper is to develop a multiperiod mathematical risk programming model able of assisting water user associations with the compilation of water management plans that are both profitable and feasible. Special care was taken to represent canal capacities and irrigation system application rates in the model. Risk simulation procedures are used to generate an appropriately correlated inter- and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dynamic Linear Programming; Risk; Irrigation; Feasibility; South Africa; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C6; Q15; Q12.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25554
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A financial analysis of the effect of the mix of crop and sheep enterprises on the risk profile of dryland farms in south-eastern Australia – Part 1 AgEcon
Hutchings, Timothy R..
This study presents a method of simulating longer-term cash flows that reflect the cumulative effects of variation in seasons, prices, enterprise sequences and mixes and other management decisions. It can be used to develop full risk profiles on a whole-farm or individual-component enterprise basis for most dryland farms in southern Australia, at gross margin, profit or cash flow levels. This analysis concentrates on the cash flow implications of these various scenarios because cash flow is the indicator which includes all costs, and therefore demonstrates affordability and the long-term viability of the farm business entity. This study shows that the role of sheep in the mixed farming enterprise in south-eastern Australia is to reduce the exposure of the...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Whole-farm planning; Cash flow; Sheep; Crops; Risk; Farm Management.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121467
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A financial analysis of the impact of sheep on the risks and returns associated with mixed enterprise dryland farming in south-eastern Australia: Part II AgEcon
Hutchings, Timothy R..
This paper extends the long-term cash-flow simulations reported in Part I (Hutchings 2009) to include a range of seasonal scenarios at four representative dryland sites in south-eastern Australia. The effect of varying the proportion of sheep and cropping in the enterprise mix at each site on cash surpluses is discussed. The analysis shows that, for most sites, the cropping enterprises require better than average seasons, prices and water-use efficiencies to generate a positive cash flow and are subject to substantial variability and risk of loss. In contrast, the sheep enterprises show small but stable cash flows in all but extreme drought conditions. This paper emphasises the need to include site-specific, long-term variability and whole-farm costs in...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Whole-farm planning; Cash flow; Sheep; Crops; Risk; Farm Management.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121495
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A irrigação do cafezal como alternativa econômica ao produtor - DOI: 10.4025/actasciagron.v32i2.1624 Agronomy
Arêdes, Alan Figueiredo de; DER/UFV; Pereira, Matheus Wemerson Gomes; DER/UFV; Santos, Maurinho Luiz dos; DER/UFV.
Este trabalho objetivou verificar a viabilidade econômica da produção irrigada de café com pivô central em regiões com condições pluviométricas favoráveis à produção. Foram analisados quatro cenários para o nível de preços e três diferentes períodos de duração dos projetos de investimento. De acordo com os indicadores econômicos obtidos, a irrigação do cafezal com pivô central é economicamente superior à alternativa não-irrigada, sendo um fator condicionante para elevação da rentabilidade e diminuição do risco no cultivo do café
Palavras-chave: 6.03.10.01-4 viabilidade econômica; Risco; Café Economia Agrária economic viability; Risk; Coffee.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciAgron/article/view/1624
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A Methodological Review of the Impacts of Risk and Trust on Consumer Behaviour Towards Food Safety AgEcon
Lobb, Alexandra E..
Consumers' attitudes to trust and risk are key issues in food safety research and attention needs to be focused on clearly defining a framework for analysing consumer behaviour in these terms. By creating a platform, or benchmark, it is hoped that more succinct policy programmes may be initiated to better communicate relevant issues to consumers. In order to achieve this, a detailed review of the recent literature surrounding risk, trust and, the relationship between the two must be conducted. This paper aims to collate the literature in the fields of consumer attitudes to trust and risk. It provides an insight into the economic and other modelling procedures available to measure consumers' attitudes to risk and trust in food safety and specifically notes...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Trust; Risk; Consumer attitudes; Food safety; Consumer/Household Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24994
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A mezőgazdasági vállalkozások fizetésképtelenségének megelőzése AgEcon
Kotorman, Annamaria.
A mezőgazdasági vállalkozások felszámolásának kedvezőtlen káros hatásai a társadalom széles rétegeit érintik. A kutatás célja az agrárvállalkozások felszámolásához vezető okok elemzése 17 felszámolásra került mezőgazdasági gazdálkodó szervezetben, hogy a tanulságok előmozdítsák a fizetésképtelenség megelőzését és kezelését. A vizsgált vállalkozásokban a likviditási gyorsráta, a saját tőke aránya és az eladósodottság mutatószámainak figyelemmel kísérése a fizetésképtelenség elkerülését segíthette volna. Megállapítható továbbá, hogy alacsony saját tőkével a mezőgazdasági termelés hosszú távon nem folytatható, ezért szükséges, hogy a befektetők a termelés jellegének megfelelő jegyzett tőkével alapítsanak vállalkozást, mert a hitelek felvétele nem pótolja,...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Mezőgazdaság; Vállalkozások; Felszámolás; Vagyonvesztés; Kockázat; Agriculture; Businesses; Liquidation; Loss of assets; Risk; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92492
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A mixed-method approach for determining the risk and complexity farmers associate with using forward contracts AgEcon
Jackson, Elizabeth; Quaddus, Mohammed; Islam, Nazrul; Stanton, John.
This paper reports on a model that was developed to understand the behavioural determinants surrounding farmers’ adoption of forward contracts for agricultural commodities. Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Diffusion of Innovations, 28 hypotheses within the model were written and then tested via a telephone survey that gathered 305 responses from Western Australian wool producers. The data from the telephone survey were analysed using SPSS 14 and the Partial Least Squares approach to Structural Equation Modelling. Most relationships within the model could be explained after rigorous quantitative analysis, however, further explanation was required to understand two final aspects of adoption behaviour: firstly, the sources of risk wool...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Complexity; Forward contracts; Structural equation modelling; Partial least squares; Risk and Uncertainty; Q120; Q130.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42305
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A modern view of Joseph's policy: food stocks as financial assets AgEcon
Adelman, Irma; Berck, Peter.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Food consumption; Mathematical models; Price stabilization; Prices; Risk; Supply and demand.
Ano: 1989 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43666
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A Risk Analysis of Carbon Sequestration in Claypan Soil with Conservation Tillage Systems and Nitrogen Fertilizers for Grain Sorghum and Soybean AgEcon
Williams, Jeffery R.; Pendell, Dustin L.; Sweeney, Daniel; Rice, Charles W.; Nelson, Richard G..
Replaced with revised version of paper 02/15/06.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Carbon sequestration; Carbon credits; Nitrogen; Risk; Tillage; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35327
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A Risk Analysis of Converting CRP Acres to a Wheat-Sorghum-Fallow Rotation AgEcon
Williams, Jeffery R.; Llewelyn, Richard V.; Pendell, Dustin L.; Schlegel, Alan J.; Troy, Dumler.
This study examines the economic potential of producing a wheat (Triticum aesitivum) and grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) rotation with three different tillage strategies compared to the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in a semi-arid region. This research uses stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to determine the preferred management strategies under various risk preferences and utility-weighted certainty equivalent risk premiums. Yields, input rates, and field operations from an experimental field in western Kansas are used to calculate net returns for each tillage strategy. Although current net returns to crop production using reduced tillage and no-tillage strategies are higher than CRP, risk analysis indicates CRP...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Conservation Reserve Program; Conservation tillage; Simulation; Sorghum; Wheat; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45985
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A STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE SUGAR BEET- AND NAVY BEAN- BASED CROP ROTATIONS IN MICHIGAN AgEcon
Gebremedhin, Berhanu; Schwab, Gerald; Harwood, Richard R.; Christenson, Donald; Bricker, Calvin.
Sugar beets (Beta vulgaris L.) and navy beans (Phaseoulus vulgaris L.) have been important target crops in the crop rotation systems of many Michigan growers, particularly in the Saginaw Valley and the Thumb region. The recent decline in sugar beet yields combined with the erratic navy bean yields have led to concern about the optimal crop rotation for the East Central region in Michigan. Risk is an important consideration in a farmer's choice of cropping systems. This study uses 20 years of experimental data from the Michigan State University Saginaw Valley Research Farm to determine the risk efficiency of alternative sugar beet- and navy bean- based crop rotations that included corn (Zea mays L.), oats (Avena sativa L.), and alfalfa (Medicago sativa...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Crop rotation; Cropping system; Risk; Stochastic dominance analysis; First-degree stochastic dominance; Second-degree stochastic dominance.; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11509
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A STUDY OF THE CAUSES LEADING TO THE LIQUIDATION OF AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES AgEcon
Kotorman, Annamaria.
The viability of agricultural enterprises is of paramount importance. Their liquidation has harmful effects on broad strata of society. The aim of my research is therefore to analyze the leading causes of liquidation of agricultural enterprises. The research was led on 17 agricultural enterprises. This may help in the prevention and treatment of their insolvency. The research results show that a long-term agricultural production is not sustainable with a low equity capital. For the long-term maintenance it is necessary that the investors establish the enterprise with a capital according to the type of the production. The loan can not replace the entrepreneurs own resources, it is only complementary to it. The owners of agricultural businesses should strive...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural enterprises; Liquidation; Capital lost; Risk; Crisis management; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53580
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