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Agricultural Water Demand in Guadalquivir River (2005 Value vs. 2015 Scenario) AgEcon
Mesa-Jurado, Maria A.; Berbel, Julio; Piston, Juan Maximo.
This paper reviews the application of a scenario for the 2015 agricultural policy and markets for the irrigated agriculture in Europe. Scenarios for irrigated agriculture 2015 are described in detail including Reformed CAP and how biofuel impacts demand. A model for irrigation water demand is applied at the basin level for the Guadalquivir River (Southern Spain). The methodology is based upon residual value of water and it combines budget and farm analysis at municipality level, with the Guadalquivir basin divided at 50 counties where 24 possible crops are selected and adapted specifically to each county yield and costs. The result is a comparative analysis between actual level of water use and value, and 2015 scenario at county level and later aggregated...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Irrigated agriculture; Value of water; Scenario analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43857
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An Analysis of Latin American Peanut Trade AgEcon
Lee, Dae-Seob; Kennedy, P. Lynn; Fletcher, Stanley M..
The U.S. export share in the world peanut market has decreased due to heavy competition. In this paper, the Latin American peanut industry is modeled using seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). Based on these estimations, a scenario analysis was conducted. The results show that the Latin American demand is not affected dramatically by either domestic of world price shocks. The effects of price changes on net trade are noticeable. However, the world price does not significantly affect the Latin American peanut supply. The results imply that Latin American peanut farmers are more sensitive to changes in domestic prices than world price changes.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Latin America; Peanuts; Scenario analysis; SUR; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Q11; Q17.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43744
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Applicability of a distributed watershed pollution model in a data-poor environment in Santa Catarina State, Brazil Rev. Bras. Ciênc. Solo
Bacic,Ivan Luiz Zilli; Rossiter,David G.; Mannaerts,Christiaan Mathias.
Intensification of agricultural production without a sound management and regulations can lead to severe environmental problems, as in Western Santa Catarina State, Brazil, where intensive swine production has caused large accumulations of manure and consequently water pollution. Natural resource scientists are asked by decision-makers for advice on management and regulatory decisions. Distributed environmental models are useful tools, since they can be used to explore consequences of various management practices. However, in many areas of the world, quantitative data for model calibration and validation are lacking. The data-intensive distributed environmental model AgNPS was applied in a data-poor environment, the upper catchment (2,520 ha) of the...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Soil and water pollution; AgNPS; Pig manure; Simulation modeling; Model calibration; Scenario analysis; Local expert knowledge.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-06832008000400035
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Assessment of Ecological Risk to Land Use in Liaoning Province Based on Global Climate Change AgEcon
Sun, Yun-peng.
Based on the climatic data and other statistics of climatic data of 54 meteorological stations from 1956 to 2005 in Liangning Province, the annual and seasonal light, heat and water and the like major elements of climatic resources are diagnosed and analyzed by using the method of linear climate trend rate. The results show that warming trend is 0.25℃/10a , the precipitation decrease gradually by 2.2mm/a and the decreasing trend of solar radiation and hours of sunshine is not dramatic. The overall climate change trend is warming and drying trend, featuring “significantly increased temperature, the decreased precipitation and sunshine”. These features are significant in autumn, thus leading to the trend of moving west and retreating east of the...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Global climate change; Land use; Scenario analysis; Ecological security assessment; China; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93668
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Business Dynamics with Scenarios on Dutch Agriculture and its Institutional Arrangements AgEcon
Poppe, Krijn J..
This paper investigates the developments in the Dutch Agri‐Food innovation system. Main components of the system are agriculture and agribusiness, the promotion of interests in the lobby system and the knowledge system. Each has its own dynamics but they are until now tied together by institutional arrangements. Based on a historical description we formulate a simple business dynamics model. The robustness of the system is investigated by a scenario analysis. Results have been checked by interviews with experts.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agri‐food innovation system; Business dynamics; Scenario analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97234
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Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change Ecology and Society
Brand, Fridolin Simon; Natural and Social Science Interface, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich; fridolin.brand@env.ethz.ch; Seidl, Roman; Natural and Social Science Interface; Institute for Environmental Decisions; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich; roman.seidl@env.ethz.ch; Le, Quang Bao; Natural and Social Science Interface; Institute for Environmental Decisions; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich; quang.le@env.ethz.ch; Scholz, Roland Werner; Natural and Social Science Interface; Institute for Environmental Decisions; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich; roland.scholz@env.ethz.ch.
Alpine regions in Europe, in particular, face demanding local challenges, e.g., the decline in the agriculture and timber industries, and are also prone to global changes, such as in climate, with potentially severe impacts on tourism. We focus on the Visp region in the Upper Valais, Switzerland, and ask how the process of stakeholder involvement in research practice can contribute to a better understanding of the specific challenges and future development of mountainous regions under global change. Based on a coupled human-environment system (HES) perspective, we carried out a formative scenario analysis to develop a set of scenarios for the future directions of the Visp region. In addition, we linked these regional scenarios to context scenarios...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Global change; Human-environment systems; Mountain regions; Scenario analysis; Sustainability science; Switzerland; Transdisciplinarity.
Ano: 2013
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Developing conservation targets in social-ecological systems Ecology and Society
Levin, Phillip S; NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center; phil.levin@noaa.gov; Williams, Gregory D; Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission; Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NMFS, NOAA; greg.williams@noaa.gov; Rehr, Amanda; NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center; pearlgrl@gmail.com; Norman, Karma C; NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center; karma.norman@noaa.gov; Harvey, Chris J; National Marine Fisheries Service; Chris.Harvey@noaa.gov.
The development of targets is foundational in conservation. Although progress has been made in setting targets, the diverse linkages among ecological and social components make target setting for coupled social-ecological systems extremely challenging. Developing integrated social-ecological targets is difficult because it forces policy makers to consider how management actions propagate throughout social-ecological systems, and because ultimately it is society, not scientists, that defines targets. We developed an interdisciplinary approach for identifying management targets and illustrate this approach using an example motivated by Puget Sound, USA. Our approach blends ecological modeling with empirical social science to articulate trade-offs and reveal...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight Palavras-chave: Conservation target; Ecosystem assessment; Scenario analysis; Social norm analysis.
Ano: 2015
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Economic feasibility of implementing an infrastructure for collecting rainwater from the roof of free-stall sheds. Repositório Alice
DEMEU, F. A.; LOPES, M. A.; PALHARES, J. C. P.; LIMA, A. L. R. DE; CARVALHO, F. DE M.; LOPES FILHO, M. A.; DEMEU, A. A.; VIDAL, D. A.; LIMA, M. DE L.; BARBARI, M..
This study aimed to analyze the economic feasibility of implementing and using the necessary infrastructure to collect rainwater from the roof of free-stall sheds in a dairy production system in southern Minas Gerais, Brazil. Specifically, the total cost (TC), total operating cost (TOC), and actual operating cost (AOC) of a cubic meter of rainwater and the break-even point in cubic meters were estimated. The research was conducted from January to December 2017 on a property located in the south of Minas Gerais. The following MOP scenarios were analyzed: most likely (Scenario 1), optimistic (scenario 2), and pessimistic (scenario 3). The grant value of the Das Velhas River basin was considered for the most likely scenario, as it has the most similar value...
Tipo: Artigo de periódico Palavras-chave: Scenario analysis; Dairy cattle farming; Profitability indicators; Reuse; Sustainability; Bovinocultura leiteira; Indicadores de rentabilidade; Sustentabilidade.
Ano: 2021 URL: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1137656
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Economic viability of a canadian biodigester for power generation in dairy farming. Repositório Alice
DEMEU, F. A.; LOPES, M. A.; REIS, E. M. B.; LIMA, A. L. R.; CARVALHO, F. DE M.; PALHARES, J. C. P.; OTENIO, M. H..
This study aimed to analyze the economic viability of implementing and using a Canadian biodigester for power generation in a milk production system. Specifically, we intended to estimate the generated power production, the total production cost (TC), the total operating cost (TOC), and the effective operating cost (EOC) of 1 kW of power generated, and estimate the break-even point of the power produced. The research was carried out on a farm located in southern Minas Gerais (Brazil) from January to December 2017. Three scenarios were analyzed through the tree-point estimation (most likely, optimistic, and pessimistic). Scenario 1 considered the use of power for the acclimatization of free-stall barns during 13 hours day-1 plus the use of 50% of the...
Tipo: Artigo de periódico Palavras-chave: Scenario analysis; Biofertilizer; Profitability indicators; Análise de cenários; Indicadores de rentabilidade; Tratamento de dejetos; Biogás; Biofertilizante; Waste treatment.
Ano: 2021 URL: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1137677
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Economic viability of implementing an infrastructure for recycling bedding sand from a free-stall facility for dairy cows. Repositório Alice
LOPES, M. A.; DEMEU, F. A.; REIS, E. M. B.; LIMA, A. L. R.; CARVALHO, F. DE M.; PALHARES, J. C. P.; COSTA, G. M. DA; PINHEIRO, M. V. G.; DEMEU, A. A..
This study proposes to examine the economic viability of implementing the necessary infrastructure for the recycling of bedding sand from a free-stall facility in a milk production system in southern Minas Gerais, Brazil. In specific terms, the total production cost (TC), total operating cost (TOC) and effective operating cost (EOC) of a cubic meter of recycled sand were estimated in order to estimate the total sand consumption for the free-stall system and per bed year-1 as well as the equilibrium point of the amount of recycled sand, in cubic meters. The experiment was carried out on a farm located in the south of Minas Gerais from January 2016 to December 2017. Three scenarios were analyzed by the tree-point estimation method (MOP - most likely,...
Tipo: Artigo de periódico Palavras-chave: Scenario analysis; Dairy cattle farming; Profitability indicators; Reuse; Sustainability; Análise de cenários; Bovinocultura leiteira; Indicadores de rentabilidade; Reuso; Sustentabilidade.
Ano: 2021 URL: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1137670
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EXCEL COOPERATIVE: STRATEGIC RESPONSE TO THE BOOM IN BIOFUELS. TEACHING NOTE AgEcon
Roucan-Kane, Maud; Boehlje, Michael; Gray, Allan W.; Akridge, Jay T..
The objective of this paper is to present the teaching note of a case study. The case study outlines the strategic issues facing Excel Cooperative as a result of the rapid expansion of biofuel production capacity in the Midwestern U.S. Excel Cooperative is a mid-sized, ‘local’, farmer-owned cooperative serving farmers in north central Indiana. Excel is composed of four divisions: agronomy, energy, grain, and feed/livestock. With the Excel case, the reader must think strategically about the broad impacts of the biofuel “boom”, apply strategic management tools and decision-making under uncertainty concepts to better understand the impacts, and frame a response. The methodology proposed in the teaching note is composed of a SWOT analysis, scorecarding and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Risk; Heat mapping; Scorecarding; Scenario analysis; Payoff matrix; Decision tree; Real option; Traps; Agribusiness; D81.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53584
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Impact Of Greenhouse Gas Abatement Targets On Agricultural Activity AgEcon
Donnellan, Trevor; Gillespie, Patrick; Hanrahan, Kevin F..
As part of its continuing commitment to address the causes of climate change, the EU has agreed reduction targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be achieved by 2020. In the case of Ireland the target is a reduction of 20 percent relative to the 2005 level. Agriculture is a major source of GHG emissions in Ireland, comprising 26.8 percent of total GHG emissions in 2007. Understanding the scale and cost of the decrease in agricultural production required to achieve this reduction in GHG emissions is particularly important, as is the comparison of the cost of this approach with a range of possible other means of achieving emissions reductions in the sector. This study finds that, even with reduced fertiliser usage and more extensive production...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Policy analysis; Partial equilibrium modelling; Baseline; Scenario analysis; GHG; Kyoto; Climate; Ireland; FAPRI; EU Gold Model; Abatements; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q11; Q17; Q18; Q54.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51050
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Irrigation Water Value Scenarios for 2015: Application to Guadalquivir River AgEcon
Mesa-Jurado, Maria A.; Piston, Juan Maximo; Giannoccaro, Giacomo; Berbel, Julio.
This paper reviews the application of a scenario for the 2015 agricultural policy and markets for the irrigated agriculture in Europe. Scenarios for irrigated agriculture 2015 are also described in detail including Reformed CAP and biomass demand. It is applied at the basin level for the Guadalquivir River in southern Spain. The methodology is based upon residual value of water and it combines budget and farm analysis at municipality level, with the Guadalquivir basin divided at 50 ‘comarcas’; in each of them 24 possible crops are selected with specific ‘comarca’ data bases. The 2015 scenario studies the present level of water use and value, and makes an analysis for 2015.This model allows the knowledge of water value and irrigated agriculture at ‘comarca’...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Water pricing; Irrigated agriculture; Value of water; Scenario analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6450
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Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios Ecology and Society
Biggs, Reinette; University of Wisconsin; biggs@wisc.edu; Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara; McGill University; ciara.rh@gmail.com; Atkinson-Palombo, Carol; Arizona State University; cmatkin@mainex1.asu.edu; Bohensky, Erin; University of Pretoria; CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems; erin.bohensky@csiro.au; Boyd, Emily; Stockholm University; boyd@ctm.su.se; Cundill, Georgina; Rhodes University; g.cundill@ru.ac.za; Fox, Helen; World Wildlife Fund; helen.fox@wwfus.org; Ingram, Scott; Arizona State University; singram@asu.edu; Kok, Kasper; Wageningen University; kasper.kok@wur.nl; Spehar, Stephanie; New York University; stephanie.spehar@gmail.com; Timmer, Dagmar; Resourceful Solutions Consulting; timmer.dagmar@gmail.com; Zurek, Monika; FAO; monika.zurek@fao.org.
Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on experiences in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, we suggest that the desired degree of cross-scale linkage depends on the primary aim of the scenario exercise. Loosely linked multiscale scenarios appear more appropriate when the primary aim is to engage in exploratory dialog with stakeholders. Tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios seem to work best when the main objective is to further our understanding of cross-scale interactions or to assess trade-offs between...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight Palavras-chave: Multiscale scenarios; Cross-scale scenarios; Stakeholder engagement; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; Environmental assessment; Scenario analysis.
Ano: 2007
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MAKING DECISIONS IN TURBULENT TIMES: AN ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND DECISION TOOLS AgEcon
Roucan-Kane, Maud; Boehlje, Michael; Gray, Allan W.; Akridge, Jay T..
The business climate for the agricultural sector is characterized by increased uncertainty and “unanticipated surprises,” such as new government regulations, new technology and product introductions, mergers and acquisitions, nonperformance by supply chain partners, and changes in interest and exchange rates. This manuscript uses a real case problem to describe a set of tools(such as scenario analysis, risk scorecarding and heat mapping, payoff matrices, decision trees, and options portfolio mapping) available to use for making strategic decisions in such a business climate.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Scorecarding and heat mapping; Decision trees; Scenario analysis; Payoff matrices; Real options; Agribusiness; Q13.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98052
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Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China Ecology and Society
Tian, Guangjin; State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University; tianguangjin@bnu.edu.cn; Qiao, Zhi; State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University; 386656602@qq.com.
Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents’ behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model) (ABM) with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Agent-based model; Analytical hierarchy process; Guangzhou; Policy makers; Scenario analysis.
Ano: 2014
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MOVING PUBLIC ASSISTANCE RECIPIENTS INTO THE LABOR FORCE, 1996-2000 AgEcon
Hanson, Kenneth; Hamrick, Karen S..
Moving recipients of public assistance into jobs is a goal of the current system for providing public assistance to low-income households. Using scenario analysis with a computable general equilibrium model, ERS researchers examined some of the labor market impacts of the "welfare-to work" provisions of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA). The results show that, from 1996 to 2000, the influx of public assistance recipients into the labor force put downward wage pressure on low-skill occupations, making wage growth smaller than it would have been without the influx. At the same time, the influx added workers to the labor force, which contributed to economic growth. By expanding the labor force, the influx...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Public assistance; Low-income households; Food Stamp Program; Welfare reform; Labor markets; Low-skill; Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model; Scenario analysis; Labor and Human Capital.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33839
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Multicriteria and Multiperiod Programming for Scenario Analysis in Guadalquivir River Irrigated Farming AgEcon
Vecino, Julio Berbel; Baldovín, Maria Jose López; Gutierrez, Carlos.
A multiperiod model based upon a multicriteria objective function has been developed for a representative area of the Guadalquivir Valley, dividing the irrigated area into homogeneous types of farming as identified by cluster analysis. The model was applied to different future scenarios with a time horizon of 10 years and several different farming environments. A set of eight sustainability indicators has been evaluated for the model. The results show that the evolution of crops over time is closely related to the political environment regarding the Common Agricultural Policy and the application of the Water Framework Directive. Methodological innovation has included the successful simultaneous introduction of MCDM and multiperiod programming techniques...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Multiperiod programming; Multicriteria programming; Sustainable agriculture; Scenario analysis; Agribusiness; C61.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24612
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Scenario Analysis of New Zealand’s Sheep Meat and Beef Sector Over The Next 10 To 15 Years AgEcon
Forsyth, Hamish; Knutson, Russell.
This paper identifies and synthesises strategic opportunities and challenges facing New Zealand’s sheep meat and beef sector over the next 10 to 15 years. A Delphi survey draws on the sector’s collective knowledge and identifies areas of consensus and divergence of opinion. Using the results of this survey, as well as looking at other key industry features and mega-trends affecting the sector, four scenarios are developed that portray various possible futures where the industry has adapted or failed to adapt to the challenges and opportunities it is presented with. While the paper concludes that there is a generally positive outlook for the sector it notes that carrying on as normal is unlikely to provide the desired outcomes identified by the sector.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Sheep; Beef; Scenario analysis; Strategic analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97136
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Scenarios of fish waste deposition at the sub-lagoon scale: a modelling approach for aquaculture zoning and site selection ArchiMer
Chary, Killian; Callier, Myriam; Coves, Denis; Aubin, Joel; Simon, Julien; Fiandrino, Annie.
Spatial planning, including zoning and site-selection steps, is necessary to determine locations that minimize environmental impacts of aquaculture and respect ecosystem carrying capacities. This study aimed to analyse potential benthic waste deposition in a broad range of fish farming situations to facilitate zoning. To this end, we simulated waste dispersion for 54 aquaculture scenarios combining three red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) farm types (Small, Medium, and Large) based on real farm characteristics and 36 sites with contrasting hydrodynamics in Mayotte’s North-East Lagoon. Key forcing variables and parameters of the particle-dispersion model for farms (layout and solid waste fluxes), species (feed- and faeces-settling velocities) and sites (depth...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Aquaculture zones; Carrying-capacity; Environmental impact; Hydrodynamics; NewDEPOMOD; Particle dispersion; Red drum; Scenario analysis.
Ano: 2021 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00666/77810/79985.pdf
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