SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Mesa-Jurado, Maria A.; Berbel, Julio; Piston, Juan Maximo.

This paper reviews the application of a scenario for the 2015 agricultural policy and markets for the irrigated agriculture in Europe. Scenarios for irrigated agriculture 2015 are described in detail including Reformed CAP and how biofuel impacts demand. A model for irrigation water demand is applied at the basin level for the Guadalquivir River (Southern Spain). The methodology is based upon residual value of water and it combines budget and farm analysis at municipality level, with the Guadalquivir basin divided at 50 counties where 24 possible crops are selected and adapted specifically to each county yield and costs. The result is a comparative analysis between actual level of water use and value, and 2015 scenario at county level and later aggregated...

An Analysis of Latin American Peanut Trade

Palavras-chave: Irrigated agriculture; Value of water; Scenario analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43857

Lee, Dae-Seob; Kennedy, P. Lynn; Fletcher, Stanley M..

The U.S. export share in the world peanut market has decreased due to heavy competition. In this paper, the Latin American peanut industry is modeled using seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). Based on these estimations, a scenario analysis was conducted. The results show that the Latin American demand is not affected dramatically by either domestic of world price shocks. The effects of price changes on net trade are noticeable. However, the world price does not significantly affect the Latin American peanut supply. The results imply that Latin American peanut farmers are more sensitive to changes in domestic prices than world price changes.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Latin America; Peanuts; Scenario analysis; SUR; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Q11; Q17.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43744

Applicability of a distributed watershed pollution model in a data-poor environment in Santa Catarina State, Brazil

Rev. Bras. Ciênc. Solo

Bacic,Ivan Luiz Zilli; Rossiter,David G.; Mannaerts,Christiaan Mathias.

Intensification of agricultural production without a sound management and regulations can lead to severe environmental problems, as in Western Santa Catarina State, Brazil, where intensive swine production has caused large accumulations of manure and consequently water pollution. Natural resource scientists are asked by decision-makers for advice on management and regulatory decisions. Distributed environmental models are useful tools, since they can be used to explore consequences of various management practices. However, in many areas of the world, quantitative data for model calibration and validation are lacking. The data-intensive distributed environmental model AgNPS was applied in a data-poor environment, the upper catchment (2,520 ha) of the...

Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article

Palavras-chave: Soil and water pollution; AgNPS; Pig manure; Simulation modeling; Model calibration; Scenario analysis; Local expert knowledge.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-06832008000400035

Assessment of Ecological Risk to Land Use in Liaoning Province Based on Global Climate Change

Business Dynamics with Scenarios on Dutch Agriculture and its Institutional Arrangements

Sun, Yun-peng.

Based on the climatic data and other statistics of climatic data of 54 meteorological stations from 1956 to 2005 in Liangning Province, the annual and seasonal light, heat and water and the like major elements of climatic resources are diagnosed and analyzed by using the method of linear climate trend rate. The results show that warming trend is 0.25℃/10a , the precipitation decrease gradually by 2.2mm/a and the decreasing trend of solar radiation and hours of sunshine is not dramatic. The overall climate change trend is warming and drying trend, featuring “significantly increased temperature, the decreased precipitation and sunshine”. These features are significant in autumn, thus leading to the trend of moving west and retreating east of the...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Global climate change; Land use; Scenario analysis; Ecological security assessment; China; Agribusiness.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93668

Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change

Poppe, Krijn J..

This paper investigates the developments in the Dutch Agri‐Food innovation system. Main components of the system are agriculture and agribusiness, the promotion of interests in the lobby system and the knowledge system. Each has its own dynamics but they are until now tied together by institutional arrangements. Based on a historical description we formulate a simple business dynamics model. The robustness of the system is investigated by a scenario analysis. Results have been checked by interviews with experts.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Agri‐food innovation system; Business dynamics; Scenario analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97234

Brand, Fridolin Simon; Natural and Social Science Interface, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich; fridolin.brand@env.ethz.ch; Seidl, Roman; Natural and Social Science Interface; Institute for Environmental Decisions; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich; roman.seidl@env.ethz.ch; Le, Quang Bao; Natural and Social Science Interface; Institute for Environmental Decisions; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich; quang.le@env.ethz.ch; Scholz, Roland Werner; Natural and Social Science Interface; Institute for Environmental Decisions; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich; roland.scholz@env.ethz.ch.

Alpine regions in Europe, in particular, face demanding local challenges, e.g., the decline in the agriculture and timber industries, and are also prone to global changes, such as in climate, with potentially severe impacts on tourism. We focus on the Visp region in the Upper Valais, Switzerland, and ask how the process of stakeholder involvement in research practice can contribute to a better understanding of the specific challenges and future development of mountainous regions under global change. Based on a coupled human-environment system (HES) perspective, we carried out a formative scenario analysis to develop a set of scenarios for the future directions of the Visp region. In addition, we linked these regional scenarios to context scenarios...

Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports

Palavras-chave: Global change; Human-environment systems; Mountain regions; Scenario analysis; Sustainability science; Switzerland; Transdisciplinarity.

Ano: 2013

Developing conservation targets in social-ecological systems

Levin, Phillip S; NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center; phil.levin@noaa.gov; Williams, Gregory D; Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission; Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NMFS, NOAA; greg.williams@noaa.gov; Rehr, Amanda; NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center; pearlgrl@gmail.com; Norman, Karma C; NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center; karma.norman@noaa.gov; Harvey, Chris J; National Marine Fisheries Service; Chris.Harvey@noaa.gov.

The development of targets is foundational in conservation. Although progress has been made in setting targets, the diverse linkages among ecological and social components make target setting for coupled social-ecological systems extremely challenging. Developing integrated social-ecological targets is difficult because it forces policy makers to consider how management actions propagate throughout social-ecological systems, and because ultimately it is society, not scientists, that defines targets. We developed an interdisciplinary approach for identifying management targets and illustrate this approach using an example motivated by Puget Sound, USA. Our approach blends ecological modeling with empirical social science to articulate trade-offs and reveal...

Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight

Palavras-chave: Conservation target; Ecosystem assessment; Scenario analysis; Social norm analysis.

Ano: 2015

EXCEL COOPERATIVE: STRATEGIC RESPONSE TO THE BOOM IN BIOFUELS. TEACHING NOTE

Roucan-Kane, Maud; Boehlje, Michael; Gray, Allan W.; Akridge, Jay T..

The objective of this paper is to present the teaching note of a case study. The case study outlines the strategic issues facing Excel Cooperative as a result of the rapid expansion of biofuel production capacity in the Midwestern U.S. Excel Cooperative is a mid-sized, ‘local’, farmer-owned cooperative serving farmers in north central Indiana. Excel is composed of four divisions: agronomy, energy, grain, and feed/livestock. With the Excel case, the reader must think strategically about the broad impacts of the biofuel “boom”, apply strategic management tools and decision-making under uncertainty concepts to better understand the impacts, and frame a response. The methodology proposed in the teaching note is composed of a SWOT analysis, scorecarding and...

Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper

Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Risk; Heat mapping; Scorecarding; Scenario analysis; Payoff matrix; Decision tree; Real option; Traps; Agribusiness; D81.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53584

Impact Of Greenhouse Gas Abatement Targets On Agricultural Activity

Donnellan, Trevor; Gillespie, Patrick; Hanrahan, Kevin F..

As part of its continuing commitment to address the causes of climate change, the EU has agreed reduction targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be achieved by 2020. In the case of Ireland the target is a reduction of 20 percent relative to the 2005 level. Agriculture is a major source of GHG emissions in Ireland, comprising 26.8 percent of total GHG emissions in 2007. Understanding the scale and cost of the decrease in agricultural production required to achieve this reduction in GHG emissions is particularly important, as is the comparison of the cost of this approach with a range of possible other means of achieving emissions reductions in the sector. This study finds that, even with reduced fertiliser usage and more extensive production...

Irrigation Water Value Scenarios for 2015: Application to Guadalquivir River

Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Policy analysis; Partial equilibrium modelling; Baseline; Scenario analysis; GHG; Kyoto; Climate; Ireland; FAPRI; EU Gold Model; Abatements; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q11; Q17; Q18; Q54.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51050

Mesa-Jurado, Maria A.; Piston, Juan Maximo; Giannoccaro, Giacomo; Berbel, Julio.

This paper reviews the application of a scenario for the 2015 agricultural policy and markets for the irrigated agriculture in Europe. Scenarios for irrigated agriculture 2015 are also described in detail including Reformed CAP and biomass demand. It is applied at the basin level for the Guadalquivir River in southern Spain. The methodology is based upon residual value of water and it combines budget and farm analysis at municipality level, with the Guadalquivir basin divided at 50 ‘comarcas’; in each of them 24 possible crops are selected with specific ‘comarca’ data bases. The 2015 scenario studies the present level of water use and value, and makes an analysis for 2015.This model allows the knowledge of water value and irrigated agriculture at ‘comarca’...

Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios

Palavras-chave: Water pricing; Irrigated agriculture; Value of water; Scenario analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6450

Biggs, Reinette; University of Wisconsin; biggs@wisc.edu; Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara; McGill University; ciara.rh@gmail.com; Atkinson-Palombo, Carol; Arizona State University; cmatkin@mainex1.asu.edu; Bohensky, Erin; University of Pretoria; CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems; erin.bohensky@csiro.au; Boyd, Emily; Stockholm University; boyd@ctm.su.se; Cundill, Georgina; Rhodes University; g.cundill@ru.ac.za; Fox, Helen; World Wildlife Fund; helen.fox@wwfus.org; Ingram, Scott; Arizona State University; singram@asu.edu; Kok, Kasper; Wageningen University; kasper.kok@wur.nl; Spehar, Stephanie; New York University; stephanie.spehar@gmail.com; Timmer, Dagmar; Resourceful Solutions Consulting; timmer.dagmar@gmail.com; Zurek, Monika; FAO; monika.zurek@fao.org.

Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on experiences in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, we suggest that the desired degree of cross-scale linkage depends on the primary aim of the scenario exercise. Loosely linked multiscale scenarios appear more appropriate when the primary aim is to engage in exploratory dialog with stakeholders. Tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios seem to work best when the main objective is to further our understanding of cross-scale interactions or to assess trade-offs between...

Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight

Palavras-chave: Multiscale scenarios; Cross-scale scenarios; Stakeholder engagement; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; Environmental assessment; Scenario analysis.

Ano: 2007

MAKING DECISIONS IN TURBULENT TIMES: AN ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND DECISION TOOLS

Roucan-Kane, Maud; Boehlje, Michael; Gray, Allan W.; Akridge, Jay T..

The business climate for the agricultural sector is characterized by increased uncertainty and “unanticipated surprises,” such as new government regulations, new technology and product introductions, mergers and acquisitions, nonperformance by supply chain partners, and changes in interest and exchange rates. This manuscript uses a real case problem to describe a set of tools(such as scenario analysis, risk scorecarding and heat mapping, payoff matrices, decision trees, and options portfolio mapping) available to use for making strategic decisions in such a business climate.

Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper

Palavras-chave: Scorecarding and heat mapping; Decision trees; Scenario analysis; Payoff matrices; Real options; Agribusiness; Q13.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98052

Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

Tian, Guangjin; State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University; tianguangjin@bnu.edu.cn; Qiao, Zhi; State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University; 386656602@qq.com.

Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents’ behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model) (ABM) with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict...

Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports

Palavras-chave: Agent-based model; Analytical hierarchy process; Guangzhou; Policy makers; Scenario analysis.

Ano: 2014

MOVING PUBLIC ASSISTANCE RECIPIENTS INTO THE LABOR FORCE, 1996-2000

Hanson, Kenneth; Hamrick, Karen S..

Moving recipients of public assistance into jobs is a goal of the current system for providing public assistance to low-income households. Using scenario analysis with a computable general equilibrium model, ERS researchers examined some of the labor market impacts of the "welfare-to work" provisions of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA). The results show that, from 1996 to 2000, the influx of public assistance recipients into the labor force put downward wage pressure on low-skill occupations, making wage growth smaller than it would have been without the influx. At the same time, the influx added workers to the labor force, which contributed to economic growth. By expanding the labor force, the influx...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Public assistance; Low-income households; Food Stamp Program; Welfare reform; Labor markets; Low-skill; Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model; Scenario analysis; Labor and Human Capital.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33839

Multicriteria and Multiperiod Programming for Scenario Analysis in Guadalquivir River Irrigated Farming

Vecino, Julio Berbel; Baldovín, Maria Jose López; Gutierrez, Carlos.

A multiperiod model based upon a multicriteria objective function has been developed for a representative area of the Guadalquivir Valley, dividing the irrigated area into homogeneous types of farming as identified by cluster analysis. The model was applied to different future scenarios with a time horizon of 10 years and several different farming environments. A set of eight sustainability indicators has been evaluated for the model. The results show that the evolution of crops over time is closely related to the political environment regarding the Common Agricultural Policy and the application of the Water Framework Directive. Methodological innovation has included the successful simultaneous introduction of MCDM and multiperiod programming techniques...

Scenario Analysis of New Zealand’s Sheep Meat and Beef Sector Over The Next 10 To 15 Years

Palavras-chave: Multiperiod programming; Multicriteria programming; Sustainable agriculture; Scenario analysis; Agribusiness; C61.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24612

Forsyth, Hamish; Knutson, Russell.

This paper identifies and synthesises strategic opportunities and challenges facing New Zealand’s sheep meat and beef sector over the next 10 to 15 years. A Delphi survey draws on the sector’s collective knowledge and identifies areas of consensus and divergence of opinion. Using the results of this survey, as well as looking at other key industry features and mega-trends affecting the sector, four scenarios are developed that portray various possible futures where the industry has adapted or failed to adapt to the challenges and opportunities it is presented with. While the paper concludes that there is a generally positive outlook for the sector it notes that carrying on as normal is unlikely to provide the desired outcomes identified by the sector.

Scenarios of fish waste deposition at the sub-lagoon scale: a modelling approach for aquaculture zoning and site selection

Palavras-chave: Sheep; Beef; Scenario analysis; Strategic analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97136

ArchiMer

Chary, Killian; Callier, Myriam; Coves, Denis; Aubin, Joel; Simon, Julien; Fiandrino, Annie.

Spatial planning, including zoning and site-selection steps, is necessary to determine locations that minimize environmental impacts of aquaculture and respect ecosystem carrying capacities. This study aimed to analyse potential benthic waste deposition in a broad range of fish farming situations to facilitate zoning. To this end, we simulated waste dispersion for 54 aquaculture scenarios combining three red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) farm types (Small, Medium, and Large) based on real farm characteristics and 36 sites with contrasting hydrodynamics in Mayotte’s North-East Lagoon. Key forcing variables and parameters of the particle-dispersion model for farms (layout and solid waste fluxes), species (feed- and faeces-settling velocities) and sites (depth...

Tipo: Text

Palavras-chave: Aquaculture zones; Carrying-capacity; Environmental impact; Hydrodynamics; NewDEPOMOD; Particle dispersion; Red drum; Scenario analysis.

Ano: 2021

URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00666/77810/79985.pdf

The Effects of Sex-Sorted Semen on Southern Dairy Farms

Herbst, Brian K.; Anderson, David P.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Bilby, Todd.

This paper examines the impact of sex-sorted semen adoption on dairy farm level economics. Representative dairies are used to simulate the financial impacts of moving to this new technology. Key economic, financial and herd dynamics will be compared among dairies to show how the uses of sex-sorted semen will affect dairy farms. All seven of the representative dairies that were analyzed sold surplus replacement heifers using sex-sorted semen. The increase use of sex-sorted semen can have very positive impacts on dairies throughout the Southern United States.

TOOLS AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK TO MAKE DECISIONS IN TURBULENT TIMES

Palavras-chave: Dairy production; Sex sorted semen; Production economics; Scenario analysis; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46814

Roucan-Kane, Maud; Boehlje, Michael; Gray, Allan W.; Akridge, Jay T..

The dramatic changes occurring throughout the agriculture industry are creating an increasingly turbulent business climate for the sector. The objective of this paper is to present a methodology to understand, assess, evaluate, and manage uncertainty. Five methods are discussed: scenario analysis, scorecarding and heat mapping, payoff matrix, decision tree, and options portfolio mapping. Scenario analysis can help identify the alternative futures that may unfold. Scorecarding and heat mapping assessment tools can be used to assess and map the uncertainties, and decide which uncertainties the company should capitalize on and which projects could be pursued to exploit those uncertainties. Payoff matrices and decision trees (using real option valuation)...

Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper

Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Risk; Heat mapping; Scorecarding; Scenario analysis; Payoff matrix; Decision tree; Real option; Traps; Agribusiness; D81.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55465

WTO Doha Round: Impact of an Agreement on Agriculture and the Importance of Sensitive Products

Binfield, Julian C.R.; Donnellan, Trevor; Hanrahan, Kevin F.; Westhoff, Patrick C..

The Doha round of WTO negotiations has been ongoing since 2001. In the summer of 2008 the negotiations on the modalities for a new WTO agriculture agreement collapsed when seemingly on the verge of a successful conclusion. In this paper we present quantitative analysis of the impact of a new WTO agreement undertaken using a partial equilibrium model of Irish and EU agriculture. Results are presented on the agreement’s impact on Irish and EU-27 agriculture markets and on Irish agricultural sector incomes. Our analysis highlights the importance of the Baseline counter-factual, and will illustrate that protection afforded by the conferral of sensitive product status differs from commodity to commodity. The paper will draw conclusions concerning the economic...