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| Peterson, Garry D; McGill University; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca; Beard Jr., T. Douglas; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources; BEARDT@dnr.state.wi.us; Beisner, Beatrix E; University of Wisconsin-Madison; bebeisner@facstaff.wisc.edu; Bennett, Elena M; University of Wisconsin-Madison; embennett@wisc.edu; Carpenter, Stephen R; University of Wisconsin-Madison; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Cumming, Graeme; University of Florida; cummingg@wec.ufl.edu; Dent, C. Lisa; University of Wisconsin-Madison; ldent@facstaff.wisc.edu,; Havlicek, Tanya D; University of Wisconsin-Madison; TDHAVLIC@students.wisc.edu. |
| The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin is in transition from a sparsely settled region to a more densely populated one. Expected changes offer benefits to northern Wisconsin residents but also threaten to degrade the ecological services they rely on. Because the future of this region is uncertain, it is difficult to make decisions that will avoid potential risks and take advantage of potential opportunities. We adopt a scenario planning approach to cope with this problem of prediction. We use an ecological assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to determine key social and ecological driving forces in the Northern Highlands Lake District. From these, we describe three alternative scenarios to the year 2025 in which... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Northern Highlands Lake District; Wisconsin; Assessment; Ecosystem services; Freshwater; Futures; Prediction; Scenario planning. |
| Ano: 2003 |
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| Caves, Jeremy K.; Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University; jcaves@stanford.edu; Bodner, Gitanjali S.; The Nature Conservancy, Tucson, Arizona; gbodner@tnc.org; Simms, Karen; Tucson Field Office, Bureau of Land Management; ksimms@blm.gov; Fisher, Larry A.; School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona; lafisher@email.arizona.edu; Robertson, Tahnee; Southwest Decision Resources; tahnee@swdresources.com. |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Biological planning; Bureau of Land Management; Climate adaptation; Collaboration; Desert Southwest; Ecological monitoring; Implementing adaptive management; Nested objectives; Public lands management; Scenario planning. |
| Ano: 2013 |
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| Miller, Brian W.; Department of the Interior North Central Climate Science Center, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University; brian.miller@colostate.edu; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Department of the Interior North Central Climate Science Center, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University; U.S. Geological Survey; morisettej@usgs.gov. |
| Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis |
Palavras-chave: Agent-based modeling; Complex-adaptive systems; Natural resource management; Scenario planning; Simulations; Species distribution modeling; State-and-transition modeling. |
| Ano: 2014 |
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| Mabaya, Edward T.; Cramer, Laura K.; Mahiga, Veronica K.; Pham, Huong Q.; Simpson, Tara M.; Tang, Xiaowei C.. |
| Freshco, a small producer and distributor of hybrid maize seed and macadamia seedlings, was one of the first private companies to enter the Kenya seed market after its liberalization. Currently, the company produces and markets six high yielding maize varieties that are suited for diverse agro-ecological conditions. Despite the company’s encouraging growth in the local maize seed market, Freshco’s executives recognize the need to scale up operations to stay competitive. The company’s challenge is to recognize business opportunities and customer needs in an environment susceptible to ecological, political, and socioeconomic change. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Kenya; Seed industry; Smallholder farmers; Scenario planning; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Q10; Q12. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53743 |
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| Palacios-Agundez, Igone; Plant Biology and Ecology Department, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU; igone.palacios@ehu.es; Casado-Arzuaga, Izaskun; Plant Biology and Ecology Department, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU; Izaskun.casado@ehu.es; Madariaga, Iosu; Environment Department, County Council of Biscay; Plant Biology and Ecology Department, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU; iosu.madariaga@bizkaia.net; Onaindia, Miren; Plant Biology and Ecology Department, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU; miren.onaindia@ehu.es. |
| As part of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in Biscay, Basque Country, we described scenarios for Biscay through 2050 in an integrated and participatory way by downscaling the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) global scenarios, analyzed how ecosystem services and human well-being might change in a range of plausible futures, identified management strategies for the territory through a backcasting process, and explored the relevance of scenarios to policy making. Our intention was to strengthen the link to policy making and to achieve a real implementation of our research results in ecosystem management policies. We also aimed to provide more insights on how large-scale scenario developments can be translated to the local level. In doing so, we... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Biscay subglobal assessment (EEMBiscay); Ecosystem service; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; Multiscale scenarios; Policy impact; Scenario planning; Stakeholder participation. |
| Ano: 2013 |
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| Rawluk, Andrea; University of Alberta; ajrawluk@ualberta.ca; Godber, Annelise; McGill University.; annelise.godber@mail.mcgill.ca. |
| Scenario planning can be invaluable for empowerment and learning in resource dependent communities. Pre-existing scenario planning methods call for collaboration between community members, but when cultural norms prevented men, women, and youth from coming together in the community of Ukupseni in Panama, the authors and community sought to devise an alternative method. The research objectives were twofold. First, to develop an alternative scenario planning method that would facilitate learning among decision makers about community needs and perspectives, and second, to explore ways to direct desired futures. Instead of forecasting through community-wide collaboration and backcasting with the creation of one vision through consensus, forecasting used... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Backcasting; Collaboration; Forecasting; Kuna Yala; Scenario planning. |
| Ano: 2011 |
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