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Registros recuperados: 11
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Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia Ecology and Society
Devisscher, Tahia; Environmental Change Institute‬, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford; Stockholm Environment Institute; tahia.devisscher@ouce.ox.ac.uk; Boyd, Emily; Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Reading; Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies; emily.boyd@reading.ac.uk; Malhi, Yadvinder; Environmental Change Institute‬, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford; yadvinder.malhi@ouce.ox.ac.uk.
Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Climate change; Complexity; Scenario; Social-ecological system; Uncertainty; Wildfire risk.
Ano: 2016
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Characterization of the Brazilian vegetable brassicas production chain Horticultura Brasileira
Melo,Raphael AC; Vendrame,Larissa PC; Madeira,Nuno R; Blind,Ariel D; Vilela,Nirlene J.
ABSTRACT Brassica crops worldwide provide the greatest diversity of products used by man derived from a single genus. Collectively, leafy, flower and root vegetables can be eaten fresh, cooked and processed. The production of these vegetables in Brazil has been growing exponentially in the last decades, due to its economic importance, with major production volumes in several states and a quick monetary return for growers in areas considered of small acreage. With expansion, a number of aspects, including demands for quality and safety of these foods introduce themselves, strictly attached to the forms of production, logistics and their appearance. To meet the challenges and list the trends within the activities of different agents, a multiple case study...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Brassica oleracea; Diagnosis; Scenario; Regions.
Ano: 2019 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-05362019000400366
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Developing Detailed Foresight Narratives: a Participatory Technique from the Mekong Region Ecology and Society
Foran, Tira; CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences; tira.foran@csiro.au; Ward, John; CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences; j.ward@csiro.au; Kemp-Benedict, Eric J.; Stockholm Environment Institute; erickb@sei-us.org; Smajgl, Alex; CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences; alex.smajgl@csiro.au.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight Palavras-chave: Asia; Mekong; Methodology; Narrative; Participation; Scenario.
Ano: 2013
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Diseño de un sistema silvícola para conservación natural activa. Colegio de Postgraduados
Rodríguez Camarillo, María Guadalupe.
El presente trabajo se llevo a cabo en una propiedad privada de índole forestal dedicada a la producción maderable persistente, de la parte de la Sierra Occidental de Jalisco, México conocido como La Bufa. Se realizó un diseño basado en regímenes silvícolas completos para diferentes escenarios, aplicables en bosques de pinos mezclados que tienen por finalidad mover la estructura del rodal actual a una estructura cercana a silvestre o completamente natural, que tenga cualidades propias para albergar los valores que motivan la tarea de la conservación natural. Los predios forestales de la sierra jalisciense cuentan con historial de manejo bien documentado, al menos desde 1940, y además tienen una situación biológica propicia para la conservación y se ha...
Palavras-chave: Regímenes silvícolas; Conservación natural; Manejo de paisaje; Escenarios; Silvicultural regimes; Natural conservation; Landscape management; Scenario; Botánica; Doctorado.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/615
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Diseño participativo para mejorar la sustentabilidad de los agroecosistemas de la microcuenca Paso de Ovejas 1 en el estado de Veracruz, México. Colegio de Postgraduados
Candelaria Martínez, Bernardino.
Se caracterizaron los agroecosistemas (AES) de la microcuenca Paso de Ovejas 1 (POV-1) y con base en las condiciones locales se diseñó un índice agregado de sustentabilidad, en el cual se incluyeron cuatro dimensiones: ambiental, económica, social y humana, con un total de 29 indicadores. Para determinar los valores umbrales (máximo y mínimo) de cada indicador se consideraron parámetros locales, de cada grupo se seleccionó un AES al azar al que se le denominó agroecosistema tipo, en el que se realizaron evaluaciones detalladas y se representó en un modelo de simulación. Los grupos (G) identificados fueron: G1) tendencia a la ganadería con alta disponibilidad de tierras, G2) tendencia al manejo de cultivos con baja disponibilidad de tierras y G3) tendencia...
Palavras-chave: Modelación; Modelos; Escenario; Indice agregado; Territorio; Modeling; Models; Scenario; Aggregation index; Territory; Agroecosistemas Tropicales; Doctorado.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/548
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Ecoviability for ecosystem-based fisheries management ArchiMer
Doyen, Luc; Bene, Christophe; Bertignac, Michel; Blanchard, Fabian; Cisse, Abdoul; Dichmont, Catherine; Gourguet, Sophie; Guyader, Olivier; Hardy, Pierre-yves; Jennings, Sarah; Little, Lorne Richard; Macher, Claire; Mills, David Jonathan; Noussair, Ahmed; Pascoe, Sean; Pereau, Jean-christophe; Sanz, Nicolas; Schwarz, Anne-maree; Smith, Tony; Thebaud, Olivier.
Reconciling food security, economic development and biodiversity conservation is a key challenge, especially in the face of the demographic transition characterizing many countries in the world. Fisheries and marine ecosystems constitute a difficult application of this bio-economic challenge. Many experts and scientists advocate an ecosystem approach to manage marine socio-ecosystems for their sustainability and resilience. However, the ways by which to operationalize ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) remain poorly specified. We propose a specific methodological framework-viability modelling-to do so. We show how viability modelling can be applied using four contrasted case-studies: two small-scale fisheries in South America and Pacific and two...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Biodiversity; Ecological economics; Ecosystem approach; Fisheries; Scenario; Viability.
Ano: 2017 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00409/52009/52724.pdf
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Ecoviability for small-scale fisheries in the context of food security constraints ArchiMer
Cisse, Abdoul; Doyen, L.; Blanchard, Fabian; Bene, Christophe; Pereau, J. -c..
This paper applies a stochastic viability approach to a tropical small-scale fishery, offering a theoretical and empirical example of ecosystem-based fishery management approach that accounts for food security. The model integrates multi-species, multi-fleet and uncertainty as well as profitability, food production, and demographic growth. It is calibrated over the period 2006–2010 using monthly catch and effort data from the French Guiana's coastal fishery, involving thirteen species and four fleets. Using projections at the horizon 2040, different management strategies and scenarios are compared from a viability viewpoint, thus accounting for biodiversity preservation, fleet profitability and food security. The analysis shows that under certain...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Small-scale fishery; Biodiversity; Sustainability; Profitability; Food security; Multi-species; Multi-fleet; Stochasticity; Viability; Scenario.
Ano: 2015 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00276/38732/37310.pdf
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Efficient Conservation in a Utility-Maximization Framework Ecology and Society
Davis, Frank W; University of California; fd@bren.ucsb.edu; Costello, Christopher; University of California; costello@bren.ucsb.edu; Stoms, David; University of California; stoms@bren.ucsb.edu.
Systematic planning for biodiversity conservation is being conducted at scales ranging from global to national to regional. The prevailing planning paradigm is to identify the minimum land allocations needed to reach specified conservation targets or maximize the amount of conservation accomplished under an area or budget constraint. We propose a more general formulation for setting conservation priorities that involves goal setting, assessing the current conservation system, developing a scenario of future biodiversity given the current conservation system, and allocating available conservation funds to alter that scenario so as to maximize future biodiversity. Under this new formulation for setting conservation priorities, the value of a site depends on...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Biodiversity; Sierra Nevada; California; Conservation; Cost-effectiveness; Irreplaceability; Planning; Retention; Scenario.
Ano: 2006
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Methods for Developing Multiscale Participatory Scenarios: Insights from Southern Africa and Europe Ecology and Society
Kok, Kasper; Wageningen University; Kasper.Kok@wur.nl; Biggs, Reinette (Oonsie); Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR); University of Wisconsin; biggs@wisc.edu; Zurek, Monika; Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); zurek@fao.org.
Scenario planning is increasingly recognized as a useful tool for exploring change in social-ecological systems on decadal to centennial time horizons. In environmental decision making, scenario development tends to include participatory methods for engaging stakeholders and is conducted at multiple scales. This paper presents insights from participatory scenario development in two separate multiscale environmental assessments. We find that, to engage stakeholders at multiple scales, it is important that the issues explored at each scale be relevant and credible to stakeholders at that scale. An important trade-off exists between maintaining relevance to stakeholders at different scales and maintaining consistency across scales to allow for comparison of...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight Palavras-chave: Mediterranean; Multiscale scenario; Participation; Scale; Scenario; Southern Africa.
Ano: 2007
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Socio-economic Scenarios of Agricultural Land Use Change in Central and Eastern European Countries AgEcon
Fekete-Farkas, Maria; Rounsevell, Mark; Audsley, Eric.
The study presented in this paper is part of the ACCELERATES (Assessing Climate Change Effects on Land Use and Ecosystems from Regional Analysis to The European Scale) project whose main goal is the construction of integrated predictions of future land use in Europe. The scenarios constructed in the project include estimates not only due to changes in the climate baseline, but also estimates due to possible future changes in socio-economics. The overall aim of the ACCELERATES was to assess the vulnerability of European agroecosystems based on economic and environmental considerations in term of both their sensitivity and capacity to adapt changes. The historical background, the type of economy, the policy aim and governance and importance of agriculture in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: ACCELERATES; Climate change; Agricultural land use; Scenario; Land Economics/Use; Q24.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24640
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The future of olive groves on sloping land and ex-ante assessment of cross compliance for erosion control IPB - Escola Superior Agrária
de Graaff, Jan; Duarte, Filomena; Fleskens, Luuk; Figueiredo, Tomás de.
Under the past Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) olive oil subsidy regime, farmers were eligible for subsidies on the basis of the amount of olive oil they produced. This led to an intensification of production, particularly on flat land, and had inmost cases negative environmental effects, such as more soil erosion on sloping land and more pollution. With the decoupling of agricultural support under the newly established rules of the CAP, formalised in 2005, cross compliance measures have become obligatory. In this paper an ex-ante assessment is made of the application of cross compliance for soil erosion control (natural cover crops and terrace maintenance) in hilly and mountainous olive groves in Tr ´ as-os- Montes in Portugal. A linear programming model...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Olive groves; Policies; Soil erosion; Cross compliance; Scenario.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10198/5271
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