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Can Crop Insurance Premiums be Reliably Estimated? AgEcon
Ramirez, Octavio A.; Carpio, Carlos E.; Rejesus, Roderick M..
The objective of this paper is to compare the accuracy of crop insurance rating methods based on historical liability and indemnity data (similar to the procedure currently used by the Risk Management Agency) and “yield distribution” approaches. Estimated rates are compared to “true” rates using empirically-grounded simulation procedures that take into account common data availability constraints. Simulation results suggest that farm and county level rate estimates using the “yield distribution” approach are significantly more accurate than those based on historical indemnity and liability records.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop insurance premiums; Non-normal distributions; Simulation methods; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49465
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Natural resource prices: will they ever turn up? AgEcon
Berck, Peter; Roberts, Michael J..
Hotelling's theory predicts that natural resource rents should increase over time. However, technical progress in resource extraction, environmental constraints, or great natural abundance could result in stagnant or declining product prices. Thus, there is no theoretical reason to believe that product prices will rise in the near future. The prediction of product prices by time-series methods is shown to depend critically upon whether the series are modeled as differenced or trend stationary. Dickey-Fuller and Lagrange Multiplier tests are used to show that the series are differenced stationary. Long- and short-sample series are tested. Trend-stationary modeling strongly predicts rising resource prices. The result from differenced-stationary modeling is...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Arima models; Natural resources; Simulation methods; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1995 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43908
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