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A Bayesian state-space model to estimate population biomass with catch and limited survey data: application to the thornback ray (Raja clavata) in the Bay of Biscay ArchiMer
Marandel, Florianne; Lorance, Pascal; Trenkel, Verena M..
The thornback ray (Raja clavata) in the Bay of Biscay is presumed to have declined during the 20th Century. To evaluate this decline and estimate biomass trajectories, a hypothetical catch time series was created for the period 1903-2013. A Bayesian state-space biomass production model with a Schaefer production function was fitted to the hypothetical catch time series and to a shorter research vessel Catch Per Unit Eeffort (CPUE) time series (1973-2013, with missing years). A censored likelihood made it possible to obtain biomass estimates without a CPUE time series or only with an estimate of biomass depletion. A simulation-estimation approach showed a high sensitivity of results to the prior for the intrinsic growth rate. The model provided biomass...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Population dynamics; Stock assessment; Data poor; Censored data; Bayes; Thornback ray; State-space model.
Ano: 2016 URL:
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