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A New Paradigm for Adaptive Management Ecology and Society
Felton, Adam; Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; adam.felton@slu.se; Rosvall, Ola; Rosvall Forest Consulting AB; Ola.rosvall@gmail.com.
Uncertainty is a pervasive feature in natural resource management. Adaptive management, an approach that focuses on identifying critical uncertainties to be reduced via diagnostic management experiments, is one favored approach for tackling this reality. While adaptive management is identified as a key method in the environmental management toolbox, there remains a lack of clarity over when its use is appropriate or feasible. Its implementation is often viewed as suitable only in a limited set of circumstances. Here we restructure some of the ideas supporting this view, and show why much of the pessimism around AM may be unwarranted. We present a new framework for deciding when AM is appropriate, feasible, and subsequently successful. We thus present a new...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight Palavras-chave: Experimental management; Experimentation; Management; Natural resource; Participation; Stakeholder; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2013
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A Nonlinear Offset Program to Reduce Nitrous Oxide Emissions Induced by Excessive Nitrogen Application AgEcon
Rosas, Francisco; Babcock, Bruce A.; Hayes, Dermot J..
On average, U.S. farmers choose to apply nitrogen fertilizer at a rate that exceeds the ex post agronomically optimal rate. The technology underlying the yield response to nitrogen rewards producers who over apply in years when rainfall is excessive. The overapplication of nutrients has negative environmental consequences because the nitrogen that is not taken up by the plant will typically volatilize causing N2O emissions, or leach causing water pollution. We present a nonlinear offset program that induces farmers to reduce their nitrogen applications to the level that will be consumed by the plant in a typical year and, as a result, reduce N2O emissions from agriculture. The offset program is nonlinear because of the nonlinear relationship between N2O...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Carbon offsets; Nitrogen fertilizer; Nitrous oxide; Pollution; Uncertainty; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103914
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A Note on Emissions Taxes and Incomplete Information AgEcon
Chavez, Carlos A.; Stranlund, John K..
In contrast with what we perceive is the conventional wisdom about setting emissions taxes under uncertainty, we demonstrate that setting a uniform tax equal to expected marginal damage is not generally efficient under incomplete information about firms’ abatement costs and damages from pollution. We show that efficient taxes will deviate from expected marginal damage if there is uncertainty about the slopes of the marginal abatement costs of regulated firms. Moreover, efficient emissions tax rates will vary across firms if a regulator can use observable firm-level characteristics to gain some information about how the firms’ marginal abatement costs vary.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Emissions Taxes; Incomplete Information; Uncertainty; Environmental Economics and Policy; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; L51; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42129
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A Participatory Modeling Process to Capture Indigenous Ways of Adaptability to Uncertainty: Outputs From an Experiment in West African Drylands Ecology and Society
d'Aquino, Patrick; CIRAD; daquino@cirad.fr; Bah, Alassane; UMISCO ESP UCAD Dakar; alassane.bah@gmail.com.
Over the centuries, local communities have shaped atypical rules to deal with the uncertainty of their environment. They have developed complex prototypes for flexible overlapping institutions and arrangements to adapt their rules and uses to their uncertain environment. Today, this indigenous way of flexibly institutionalizing access rules could provide blueprints for dealing with uncertainty issues resulting from global change as well as designing practical guidelines for implementing resilient management. However, transforming indigenous skills for developing institutional flexibility into operational management rules that are appropriate in the current environmental and socioeconomic context is a huge challenge. However, communities could easily...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Environment; Indigenous knowledge; Management; Modeling; Participation; Sahel; Senegal; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2013
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A participatory scenario method to explore the future of marine social-ecological systems ArchiMer
Planque, Benjamin; Mullon, Christian; Arneberg, Per; Eide, Arne; Fromentin, Jean-marc; Heymans, Johanna Jacomina; Hoel, Alf Håkon; Niiranen, Susa; Ottersen, Geir; Sandø, Anne Britt; Sommerkorn, Martin; Thébaud, Olivier; Thorvik, Thorbjørn.
Anticipating future changes in marine social‐ecological systems (MSES) several decades into the future is essential in the context of accelerating global change. This is challenging in situations where actors do not share common understandings, practices, or visions about the future. We introduce a dedicated scenario method for the development of MSES scenarios in a participatory context. The objective is to allow different actors to jointly develop scenarios which contain their multiple visions of the future. The method starts from four perspectives: “fisheries management,” “ecosystem,” “ocean climate,” and “global context and governance” for which current status and recent trends are summarized. Contrasted scenarios about possible futures are elaborated...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Barents Sea; Future studies; Multiple perspectives; Participatory fisheries management; Storylines; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2019 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00485/59621/62647.pdf
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A Safety Valve for Emissions Trading AgEcon
Stranlund, John K..
This paper considers the optimal design of an emissions trading program that includes a safety valve tax that allows pollution sources to escape the emissions cap imposed by the aggregate supply of emissions permits. I demonstrate that an optimal hybrid emissions trading/emissions tax policy involves a permit supply that is strictly less than under a pure emissions trading scheme and a safety valve tax that exceeds the optimal pure emissions tax as long as expected marginal damage is an increasing function. While the expected level of emissions under a hybrid policy may be more or less than under pure emissions trading or a pure emissions tax, under the assumption that uncertainty about aggregate marginal abatement costs is symmetric the most likely...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Emissions Taxes; Emissions Trading; Uncertainty; Safety Valve; Hybrid Emissions Control; Environmental Economics and Policy; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; L51; Q28.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53125
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A Stochastic Multiple Players Multi-Issues Bargaining Model for the Piave River Basin AgEcon
Sgobbi, Alessandra; Carraro, Carlo.
The objective of this paper is to investigate the usefulness of non-cooperative bargaining theory for the analysis of negotiations on water allocation and management. We explore the impacts of different economic incentives, a stochastic environment and varying individual preferences on players’ strategies and equilibrium outcomes through numerical simulations of a multilateral, multiple issues, non-cooperative bargaining model of water allocation in the Piave River Basin, in the North East of Italy. Players negotiate in an alternating-offer manner over the sharing of water resources (quantity and quality). Exogenous uncertainty over the size of the negotiated amount of water is introduced to capture the fact that water availability is not known with...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Bargaining; Non-Cooperative Game Theory; Simulation Models; Uncertainty; Environmental Economics and Policy; C61; C71; C78.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7446
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Addressing complexity and uncertainty: conceptual models and expert judgments applied to migratory birds in the oil sands of Canada Ecology and Society
Nelitz, Marc A; ESSA Technologies Ltd.; mnelitz@essa.com; Beardmore, Ben; Beardmore Consulting LLC; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources; Alan.Beardmore@wisconsin.gov; Machtans, Craig S; Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada; Craig.Machtans@ec.gc.ca; Hall, Alexander W; ESSA Technologies Ltd.; ahall@essa.com; Wedeles, Chris; ArborVitae Environmental Services Ltd.; chris@avesltd.ca.
Complexity and uncertainty are inherent in social-ecological systems. Although they can create challenges for scientists and decision makers, they cannot be a reason for delaying decision making. Two strategies have matured in recent decades to address these challenges. Systems thinking, as embodied by conceptual modeling, is a holistic approach in which a system can be better understood by examining it as a whole. Expert elicitation represents a second strategy that enables a greater diversity of inputs to understand complex systems. We explored the use of conceptual models and expert judgments to inform expansion of monitoring around oil sands development in northern Alberta, Canada, particularly related to migratory forest birds. This study area is a...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Complexity; Conceptual modeling; Expert judgment; Migratory birds; Oil sands; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2015
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Advanced Biofuel Production in Louisiana Sugar Mills: an Application of Real Options Analysis AgEcon
Darby, Paul M.; Mark, Tyler B.; Detre, Joshua D.; Salassi, Michael E..
In order to more fully study the risks and uncertainty involved in cellulosic ethanol production, we examine a simulated plant in South Louisiana using Real Options Analysis
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Real options; Risk; Uncertainty; Cellulosic ethanol; Energy cane; Sorghum; Bagasse; Simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q42; Q14; Q16; D81; G31.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103747
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Agent Behavior under Risky and Uncertain Conditions. An Empirical Verification of Irving Fisher’s Notion of Time Preference AgEcon
Balgah, Roland Azibo; Buchenrieder, Gertrud.
Irving Fisher's theory on time preference in the 1930s arguably influenced the analysis of agents' current behavior with respect to future outcomes. By suggesting linear discount rates implying rational and self-interested motives of agents, Fisher substantiated neoclassical economic thinking. However, Fisher's notion of time preference, the choice between present and future enjoyment that actually integrates a psychological discounting component has not received similar attention in the scholarly literature. This paper aims at closing this gap. It empirically examines agent behavior under uncertain conditions culminating from natural shocks, and differentiates the psychic from the physical component. To empirically test Fisher's notion of time preference,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risks; Uncertainty; Agent behavior; Fisher; Time preference; Cameroon; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114214
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AGRICULTURAL POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND ANTICIPATORY FIRM LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS AgEcon
Lagerkvist, Carl Johan.
This paper investigates, through a dynamic stochastic adjustment model the extent to which an active agricultural policy can be the source of volatility in agricultural investment. It is shown that noise in formulation of agricultural policy has adverse effects even in cases where earlier results would take that investment is increased.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Agricultural Policy; Investment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D8; E2; H20; Q18.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21734
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Agri-Environmental Policy and Moral Hazard under Output Price and Production Uncertainty AgEcon
Yano, Yuki; Blandford, David.
Several theoretical and empirical models have been developed to examine how risk aversion affects compliance with agri-environmental schemes under asymmetric information and uncertainty. However, none has examined the case where the level of compliance is a continuous variable and producers face simultaneous monitoring, output price and production uncertainty. Treating conservation effort as a continuous variable, we show that risk aversion can mitigate the moral hazard problem in most cases. However, if conservation effort has a risk-increasing impact on production the effect of risk aversion on compliance is ambiguous.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agri-environmental schemes; Uncertainty; Moral hazard; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44323
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An Analysis of the Effects of Uncertainty and Irreversibility on Farmer Participation in the Conservation Reserve Program AgEcon
Isik, Murat; Yang, Wanhong.
A real options model is developed to examine the determinants of farmer participation in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). This study contributes to the literature by developing a framework for ex post analysis of uncertainty and irreversibility. It extends the applications of real options models to analyze farmer participation in the CRP. The model incorporates land and owner attributes, and determines whether uncertainty and irreversibility affect the probability of participation. Option values play a significant role in farmer decisions to retire land by reducing the probability of participation. These results have implications for the design and implementation of conservation programs.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Conservation; CRP; Farmer participation; Land rental payments; Option values; Uncertainty; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31113
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An Empirical Analysis of Stakeholders’ Influence on Policy Development: the Role of Uncertainty Handling Ecology and Society
Bijlsma, Rianne M.; University of Twente, The Netherlands; Deltares, The Netherlands; r.m.bijlsma@alumnus.utwente.nl; Bots, Pieter W. G.; Cemagref (UMR G-EAU); University of Delft, The Netherlands; p.w.g.bots@tudelft.nl; Wolters, Henk A.; Deltares, The Netherlands; henk.wolters@deltares.nl; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; University of Twente, The Netherlands; a.y.hoekstra@utwente.nl.
Stakeholder participation is advocated widely, but there is little structured, empirical research into its influence on policy development. We aim to further the insight into the characteristics of participatory policy development by comparing it to expert-based policy development for the same case. We describe the process of problem framing and analysis, as well as the knowledge base used. We apply an uncertainty perspective to reveal differences between the approaches and speculate about possible explanations. We view policy development as a continuous handling of substantive uncertainty and process uncertainty, and investigate how the methods of handling uncertainty of actors influence the policy development. Our findings suggest that the wider frame...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Environmental policy; Framing; Participation; Policy development; Policy process; Stakeholder involvement; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
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Analytical quality in environmental studies: uncertainty evaluation of chemical concentrations determined by INAA BABT
França,Elvis Joacir de; Fernandes,Elisabete A. De Nadai; Bacchi,Márcio Arruda; Saiki,Mitiko.
Instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) is a measurement technique of high metrological level for the determination of chemical elements. In the context of BIOTA/FAPESP Program, leaves of trees have been evaluated by INAA for biomonitoring purposes of the Atlantic Forest. To assure the comparability of results in environmental studies, a leaf sample of Marlierea tomentosa (Myrtaceae family) showing the lowest concentrations of chemical elements was selected for the evaluation of analytical quality of the determination under unfavorable conditions. Nevertheless, the homogeneity of chemical concentrations of sample at the 95% of confidence level has been achieved and INAA has presented repeatability of 2% for the determination of Br, Co, Cs, Fe, K,...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; INAA; Jackknife; Bootstrap.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1516-89132006000200016
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Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia Ecology and Society
Devisscher, Tahia; Environmental Change Institute‬, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford; Stockholm Environment Institute; tahia.devisscher@ouce.ox.ac.uk; Boyd, Emily; Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Reading; Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies; emily.boyd@reading.ac.uk; Malhi, Yadvinder; Environmental Change Institute‬, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford; yadvinder.malhi@ouce.ox.ac.uk.
Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Climate change; Complexity; Scenario; Social-ecological system; Uncertainty; Wildfire risk.
Ano: 2016
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Are CAP Decoupling Policies Really Production Neutral? AgEcon
Katranidis, Stelios D.; Kotakou, Christina A..
This paper examines the effects of decoupling policies on Greek cotton production. We estimate a system of cotton supply and input derived demand functions under the hypothesis that producers face uncertainty about prices. Using our estimation results we simulate the effects on cotton production under four alternative policy scenarios: the ‘Old’ CAP regime (i.e. the policy practiced until 2005), the Mid Term Review regime, a fully decoupled policy regime and a free trade-no policy scenario. Our results indicate that cotton production gradually decreases as more decoupled policies are adopted. Moreover, the fully decoupled payment is found to be non-production neutral since it indirectly affects producers’ decisions through the wealth effect.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: CAP; Decoupling; Uncertainty; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44184
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Are Homeowners Willing to Pay for "Origin-Certified" Plants in Water-Conserving Residential Landscaping? AgEcon
Curtis, Kynda R.; Cowee, Margaret W..
This study investigates the value of local origin-labeling for a nonfood product by evaluating Nevada homeowner purchase propensity for “NevadaGrown” native plants for water-conserving residential landscaping. Homeowner survey results illustrate that homeowners may be willing to pay as much as a 14% premium for origin-certified native plants. WTP estimates are higher when uncertain responses are incorporated into the bidding structure. Preferences for local production and drought resistance in plants are the primary drivers of purchasing decisions in the absence of uncertain responses, while income levels and preferences for natural plant appearance additionally affect purchasing decisions when uncertainty is incorporated.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Drought resistance; Native plants; Origin labeling; Uncertainty; Willingness to pay; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61066
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Assessing the impact of different rural development policy design options on the adoption of innovation across five case studies in EU AgEcon
Bartolini, Fabio; Floridi, Matteo; Latruffe, Laure; Majewski, Edward; Nikolov, Dimitre; Polman, Nico B.P.; Viaggi, Davide.
Innovation and new technology adoption represent two central elements for the enterprise and industry development process in agriculture. The objective of the paper is to provide an ex-ante analysis of the effectiveness of alternative policy design options concerning the RDP measures intended to provide incentives for investment/innovation adoption in five case study areas across Europe. The model implemented is based on a real option approach that includes investment irreversibility and stochasticity in SFP. The results show the relevance of uncertainty in determining the timing of adoption and emphasise the importance of predictability as a major component of policy design.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Real options; Innovation; Rural development policy; Single farm payments; Uncertainty; Community/Rural/Urban Development.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94907
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Avoiding Environmental Catastrophes: Varieties of Principled Precaution Ecology and Society
Johnson, Alan R; Clemson University; Alanj@Clemson.edu.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Aldo Leopold; Ambiguity; Blaise Pascal; Daniel Ellsberg; Decision theory; Future generations; Gifford Pinchot; Intelligent tinkering; Precautionary principle; Resilience; Risk; Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
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