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Agricultural yield expectations under climate change - a Bayesian approach AgEcon
Krause, Jette.
In the years to come, German wheat, corn and aggregated cereal yields can be expected to show growing deviations from a linearly increasing trend. This results from the Bayesian Updating approach I apply to agricultural yield data. The updating procedure is carried out on a set of hypotheses on yield development, which are weighted in the light of yield data from 1950 through 2006. All hypotheses share the assumption of a linear yield trend with normally distributed variance of actual data from this trend, but differ in regard to possible future developments. The set of hypotheses allows for both the trend and the variance of data to stay unchanged, increase or decrease by 20 per cent from one period to the next. As a result, yield expectations converge to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bayesian updating; Agricultural yields; Expectation; Risk; Climate change; Trend; Variance; Volatility; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9273
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Avaliação de quatro alternativas de análise de experimentos em látice quadrado, quanto a estimação de componentes de variância. Repositório Alice
SILVA, H.D.; FERREIRA, D.F.; PACHECO, C. A. P..
Estudou-se, no presente trabalho, a eficiencia das seguintes alternativas de analise de experimentos realizados em latice quanto a precisao na estimacao de componentes de variancia, atraves da simulacao computacional de dados. i) analise intrablocos do latice com tratamentos ajustados (primeira analise); ii) analise de latice em blocos casualizados completos (segunda analise); iii) analise intrablocos do latice com tratamentos nao-ajustados (terceira analise); iv) analise do latice como blocos casualizados completos, utilizando as medias ajustadas dos tratamentos, obtidos a partir da analise com recuperacao da informacao interblocos, tendo como quadrado medio do residuo a variancia efetiva media dessa analise do latice (quatro analise). Os resultados...
Tipo: Artigo em periódico indexado (ALICE) Palavras-chave: Latice; Variancia; Componentes; Eficiencia; Simulacao; Lattice; Variance; Components; Efficiency; Simulation.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/handle/doc/484156
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Classification of the cattle behaviors by using magnitude and variance of accelerometer signal CIGR Journal
AURASOPON, APINAN.
Time periods of walking-grazing, standing and lyingof cattle’s life can be used to predict their health. However, famer cannot observe those in all the time. Therefore, this paper proposes a simple technique to classify the cattle behaviors by using the magnitude and the variance of accelerometer output signal. There are two steps of algorithm detection, the first step employed the magnitude of each axis for classifying the cattle behaviors into two groups: 1) walking-grazing and standing and 2) lying. After that, the second step used the variance of Y-axis to notify between walking-grazing and standing behaviors. The classification results were inform time periods of each behavior and tested with two cattle. The measured precise times of each behavior...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Cattle behaviors; Accelerometer; Variance; Decision tree and activity monitoring.
Ano: 2015 URL: http://www.cigrjournal.org/index.php/Ejounral/article/view/3422
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Comparison of the efficiency between two sampling plans for aflatoxins analysis in maize BJM
Mallmann,Adriano Olnei; Marchioro,Alexandro; Oliveira,Maurício Schneider; Rauber,Ricardo Hummes; Dilkin,Paulo; Mallmann,Carlos Augusto.
Variance and performance of two sampling plans for aflatoxins quantification in maize were evaluated. Eight lots of maize were sampled using two plans: manual, using sampling spear for kernels; and automatic, using a continuous flow to collect milled maize. Total variance and sampling, preparation, and analysis variance were determined and compared between plans through multifactor analysis of variance. Four theoretical distribution models were used to compare aflatoxins quantification distributions in eight maize lots. The acceptance and rejection probabilities for a lot under certain aflatoxin concentration were determined using variance and the information on the selected distribution model to build the operational characteristic curves (OC). Sampling...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Mycotoxins; Variance; Error; Characteristic operation curve; Zea mays.
Ano: 2014 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1517-83822014000100006
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Echantillonnage des débarquements en criée. Estimateurs des captures et variances associées ArchiMer
Pelletier, Dominique.
Stock assessment models generally rely upon catch analysis. Catches are estimated from the sampling of landings. The evaluation of the variance associated to these estimators allows to study the induced uncertainty on models results and hence on stock management decisions. Moreover, the sampling scheme may be improved by analysing the variance components. The results show that the variance is mainly due to the variability of landings between days. In addition, as assessment models show liUle sensitivity to old age groups, sampling effort could be partially transferred from the corresponding market category to those of major economie interesl.
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Echantillonnage complexe; Estimation des captures; Variance; Complex sampling scheme; Catch estimation; Variance.
Ano: 1990 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00041/15260/12607.pdf
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Establishing a core collection from the integration of morpho-agronomical, phytopathological and molecular data Rev. Ciênc. Agron.
Martins,Francielle Alline; Silva,Derly José Henriques da; Carneiro,Pedro Crescêncio Souza.
ABSTRACTThe aim of this study was to establish and compare, as to their representativeness, core collections obtained from quantitative data, multicategoric, molecular and collections that covering all this information simultaneously. Ten subcollections were established from 67 tomato accessions of the Germplasm Bank of the Universidade Federal de Viçosa (BGH-UFV), characterized according to 19 quantitative traits, 30 multicategoric characters, 52 ISSR loci and to the reaction to three pathogens. These subcollections were defined by the combination of the nature of data collected and the sampling rate. The COD-20 subcollection stood out in 20% intensity of sampling by has higher rates of coincidence amplitude followed by more appropriate values of...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Retention rate variability; Amplitude coefficient; Germplasm; Variance.
Ano: 2015 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1806-66902015000400836
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Estimation de la précision des campagnes acoustiques au Sénégal par la méthode géostatistique transitive à une dimension ArchiMer
Samb, Birame; Petitgas, Pierre.
This study presents an application of the geostatistical one-dimensional (1D) transitive method for estimating the precision of acoustic pelagic abundance estimates in Senegal. In applying the method, the major problem encountered was how to take into account the temporal variability in the computation of the estimation variance. In acoustic surveys, echointegration is performed continuously along the ship's sailing track. For a survey design made of parallel transects, each transect can thus be considered as a sampling unit. By summing the density values along the transects to obtain biomass values per transect, the 2D estimation is simply reduced to a 1D estimation procedure. If the transects are equidistant, the geostatistical transitive method applied...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Céostatistique; Variance; Acoustique; Abondance; Geostatistics; Variance; Acoustics; Abundance.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00188/29883/28348.pdf
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Estimation of optimum plot sizes in field experiments with annatto Bragantia
Viana,Anselmo Eloy Silveira; São José,Abel Rebouças; Matsumoto,Sylvana Naomi; Sales-Júnior,Sálvio Gusmão.
The objective of this study was to estimate the optimum plots size for experiments with annatto. The uniformity assay consisted of 12 rows with 12 plants in each row. The variety Bico de Pato was used, planted in 5 x 4 m spacing and evaluated at 5 years of age. Three methods were used: maximum curvature, modified maximum curvature and the comparison of variances. The plot size estimate varied according to the methodology used and the characteristic analyzed. The adequate plot size was found to be 107.2 m² (5 plants) using the modified maximum curvature method, which resulted in more precise estimates , taking into consideration that the ideal plot should facilitate the efficient evaluation of all characteristics analyzed in this experiment.
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Bixa orellana L.; Coefficient of variation; Variance; Maximum curvature method; Experimentation.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052002000200011
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Genetic parameters and resistance of cacao progenies to ceratocystis wilt under natural infection. Repositório Alice
YAMADA, M. M.; FALEIRO, F. G.; LOPES, U. V.; PIRES, J. L..
O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a resistência do fungo Ceratocystis cacaofunesta, que causa a murcha de ceratocystis, doença letal do cacaueiro. Em março de 2005, na Estação Experimental Joaquim Bahiana do Centro de Pesquisas do Cacau (Cepec), situada no município de Itajuípe, Bahia, Brasil foi instalado no campo um experimento com progênies de 27 cruzamentos dispostos em blocos ao acaso no espaçamento de 3x3 metros com parcelas de 30 plantas e 4 repetições, totalizando 120 plantas/cruzamento. As plantas das progênies dos 27 cruzamentos foram avaliadas em relação à doença, e, em outubro de 2012, os dados da incidência de plantas mortas foram submetidos à análise de variância e da herdabilidade. As médias de incidência da doença variaram de 0,83 a...
Tipo: Artigo em periódico indexado (ALICE) Palavras-chave: Murcha de ceratocystis; Seleção natural; Variância; Herdabilidade; Cacau; Theobroma cacao; Doença de planta; Fungo; Variedade resistente; Theobroma cacao; Natural selection; Variance; Heritability; Fungal diseases of plants.
Ano: 2015 URL: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/handle/doc/1043103
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Genetic variation and realized genetic gain from rubber tree improvement Scientia Agricola
Gonçalves,Paulo de Souza; Aguiar,Adriano Tosoni da Eira; Costa,Reginaldo Brito da; Gonçalves,Elaine Cristine Piffer; Scaloppi Júnior,Erivaldo José; Branco,Roberto Botelho Ferraz.
Breeding cycle in rubber extends to 20-30 years between pollination and yield assessment, distributed over three selection stages. Five hectares of small scale trial of rubber tree [Hevea brasiliensis (Willd. ex Adr. de Juss.) Muell.-Arg.], was established in the Northwestern region of São Paulo State, Brazil. The population comprises 98 clones mostly derived from intensively selected plus tree in the natural forest of rubber tree in the Amazon. Three open pollinated progeny tests were established in three experimental stations. Seedlings from 98 progenies including a commercial check (CC) were planted in each one of the three locations. Assessments were made when the plants were one, two and three years old. The variation among progenies for girth was...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Hevea brasiliensis; Variance; Covariance; Heritability correlation; Genetic test.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-90162009000100006
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Karpography: a generic concept of quality for chain analysis and knowledge transfer in supply chains AgEcon
McRoberts, Neil.
As with other areas of science, supply chain analysis suffers from the fact that practitioners of its different component disciplines often find it exchange results and methods of analysis. For fresh produce supply chains a key issue is how to unite the elegant mathematical work on the physiology of quality change with the more qualitative methods of social science that are applied to the analysis supply chain management. This paper explores the possibility of utilising approaches which are widely used in demography to unify concepts of quality modelling and supply chain efficiency in the fresh produce sector. A key feature of demographic (or karpographic) models is that they use the average properties of individuals to model the behaviour of cohorts (or...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Quality; Modelling; Matrix model; Variance; Supply chain; Probability; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45995
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Nonlinear models to predict nitrogen mineralization in an Oxisol Scientia Agricola
Pereira,Janser Moura; Muniz,Joel Augusto; Silva,Carlos Alberto.
This work was carried out to evaluate the statistical properties of eight nonlinear models used to predict nitrogen mineralization in soils of the Southern Minas Gerais State, Brazil. The parameter estimations for nonlinear models with and without structure of autoregressive errors was made by the least squares method. First, a structure of second order autoregressive errors, AR(2) was considered for all nonlinear models and then the significance of the autocorrelation parameters was verified. Among the models, the Juma presented an autocorrelation of second order, and the model of Broadbent presented one of first order. In summary, these models presented significant autocorrelation parameters. To estimate the parameters of nonlinear models, the SAS...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Autoregressive; Estimators properties; Mineralized nitrogen; Variance; Covariance matrices.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-90162005000400014
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Revisiting N fertilisation rates in low-rainfall grain cropping regions of Australia: A risk analysis AgEcon
Monjardino, Marta; McBeath, T.; Brennan, Lisa E.; Llewellyn, Rick S..
Mallee farmers minimize downside risk in dry seasons by applying low rates of nitrogen (N) fertiliser to their cereal crops. The opportunity to respond to and capitalize on the better years is further limited as most inputs are applied upfront at sowing. We used an economic-risk decision model to identify a range of tactical N fertilisation options that increase net returns, while minimising risk for farmers with different risk attitudes. Importantly, we concluded that when accounting for long-term risks affecting farmers, the use of higher N rates can play a risk-reducing role in a highly variable environment like the Mallee.
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Nitrogen; Risk; Variance; Crop simulation; Economic net returns; Decision analysis; Zone management; Monte Carlo; Mallee; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124339
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THE MEDIATION OF VARIANCE CONFLICTS: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION AgEcon
Duke, Joshua M.; Jost, Ryan P..
Since 1982, the New Castle County Superior Court in Delaware has promoted mediation, which attempts to resolve filed conflicts prior to trial. This paper evaluates how spatial land-use conflicts channel through mediation and litigation. Data suggest that mediations fail because one of the key disputing parties does not play a direct role in mediation and litigation. The data then inform a predictive model of litigated outcomes in which disputants share in the responsibility for conflict. By alleviating some of the uncertainty of litigation and proposing win-win, mediated outcomes, the model may be used facilitate future mediations.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Mediation; Litigation; Variance; Land use; Conflict resolution; Zoning; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15833
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Variance as a Leading Indicator of Regime Shift in Ecosystem Services Ecology and Society
Brock, William A; University of Wisconsin-Madison; WBrock@ssc.wisc.edu; Carpenter, Stephen R; University of Wisconsin-Madison; srcarpen@wisc.edu.
Many environmental conflicts involve pollutants such as greenhouse gas emissions that are dispersed through space and cause losses of ecosystem services. As pollutant emissions rise in one place, a spatial cascade of declining ecosystem services can spread across a larger landscape because of the dispersion of the pollutant. This paper considers the problem of anticipating such spatial regime shifts by monitoring time series of the pollutant or associated ecosystem services. Using such data, it is possible to construct indicators that rise sharply in advance of regime shifts. Specifically, the maximum eigenvalue of the variance-covariance matrix of the multivariate time series of pollutants and ecosystem services rises prior to the regime shift. No...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Ecological economics; Ecosystem service; Indicators; Markets; Pollution; Regime shifts; Thresholds; Variance.
Ano: 2006
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อิทธิพลของสภาพแวดล้อมต่อความแปรปรวนของลักษณะประจำพันธุ์ข้าวไม่ไวต่อช่วงแสง Thai Agricultural
Prachack Lengbumrung; Kittima Raksopa; Charoen Thongraya; Wanchai Rojanahusdin; Anchalee Prasertsak.
Study on effect of environment on four rice planting durations (January, April, July and October) and four rice varieties (PTT1, PSL2, RD31 and RD41) was conducted at Ratchaburi Rice Research Center in 2011. The experimental design was split plot in RCB with three replications. Varietal characteristics, yield, yield component and meteorological data were recorded. PTT1 variety showed the longest maturity (128 days). Rice planting in April showed higher yield (808 kg/rai) than that planting in other durations. In addition, planting in April also showed the highest panicle length, number of filled seeds/panicle and 1,000 seed weight. The longest harvesting period (123 days) and lowest yield (510 kg/rai) was found in October planting. This could be...
Tipo: PhysicalObject Palavras-chave: Rice; Rice production; Non photosensitive rice; Climatatic change; Global warming; Phitsanulok 2 variety; Plathumtani 1 variety; RD 31 variety; RD 41 variety; Growth affect; Characteristic; Variance; Temperature; Season; Planting date; Rice seed; ข้าว; การผลิตข้าว; สภาพแวดล้อม; พันธุ์ข้าวไม่ไวต่อช่วงแสง; พันธุ์พิษณุโลก 2; พันธุ์ปทุมธานี 1; พันธุ์กข 31; พันธุ์กข 41; การปลูกปักดำ; การเปลี่ยนแปลงสภาพภูมิอากาศ; ลักษณะประจําพันธุ์; ความแปรปรวน; อุณหภูมิ; ฤดูกาล; การเจริญเติบโต; ผลผลิต; ภาวะโลกร้อน; เมล็ดพันธุ์.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://anchan.lib.ku.ac.th/agnet/handle/001/5700
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อิทธิพลของสภาพแวดล้อมต่อความแปรปรวนของลักษณะประจำพันธุ์ข้าวไม่ไวต่อช่วงแสง Thai Agricultural
Pichatorn Ruangdej; Nutthapun Pinkum; Precha Punyaphong; Jarat Singkee.
Effect of climate change on rice growth and yield had been studied during January 2011 through October 2013 at Chiang mai Rice Research Center, Chiang mai Province. Experimental design was split plot with three replications. Main plot were planting dates in each month as planting at January (stage1) April (stage2) July (stage3) and October (stage4). Sub plots were rice varieties, consisting of Plathumtani 1, Phitsanulok 2, RD31 and RD41. The research found that the climate change under stress of environmental. Effect to the rice varieties as a permanent. Planting in January in 2011, temperature in the night less than 15 degree and between the day temperature more than 30 degree effect to plant height of Plathumtani 1 and effect to germination of rice seed....
Tipo: PhysicalObject Palavras-chave: Rice; Rice production; Non photosensitive rice; Climatatic change; Global warming; Phitsanulok 2 variety; Plathumtani 1 variety; RD 31 variety; RD 41 variety; Growth affect; Characteristic; Variance; Temperature; Season; ข้าว; การผลิตข้าว; ความเปลี่ยนแปลงของภูมิอากาศ; พันธุ์ข้าวไม่ไวต่อช่วงแสง; พันธุ์พิษณุโลก 2; พันธุ์ปทุมธานี 1; พันธุ์กข 31; พันธุ์กข 41; การปลูกปักดำ; สภาพแวดล้อม; ลักษณะประจําพันธุ์; ความแปรปรวน; อุณหภูมิ; ฤดูกาล; การเจริญเติบโต; ผลผลิต; ภาวะโลกร้อน.
Ano: 2014 URL: http://anchan.lib.ku.ac.th/agnet/handle/001/5699
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