| Registro completo |
| Provedor de dados: |
AgEcon
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| País: |
United States
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| Título: |
Discounting and confidence
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| Autores: |
Traeger, Christian P.
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| Data: |
2011-09-01
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| Ano: |
2011
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| Palavras-chave: |
Uncertainty
Discounting
Climate change
Ambiguity
Confidence
Subjective beliefs
Prudence
Pessimism
Expected utility
Intertemporal substitutability
Intertemporal risk aversion
Risk and Uncertainty
D61
Q54
D81
D90
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| Resumo: |
Revision of CUDARE Working Paper 1117 issued June 2011
The paper analyzes the discount rate under uncertainty. The analysis complements the probabilistic characterization of uncertainty by a measure of confidence. Special cases of the model comprise discounting under smooth ambiguity aversion as well as discounting under a disentanglement of risk aversion from aversion to intertemporal substitution. The paper characterizes the general class of preferences for which uncertainty implies a reduction of the discount rate. It also characterizes how the more comprehensive description of uncertainty changes the discount rate with respect to the standard model. The paper relates different results in the literature by switching between different risk measures. It presents a parametric extension of the Ramsey discounting formula that takes into account confidence into future growth estimates and a measure of aversion to the lack of confidence. If confidence decreases in the futurity of the growth forecast, the discount rates have a falling term structure even in the case of an iid growth process.
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| Tipo: |
Working Paper
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| Idioma: |
Inglês
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| Identificador: |
http://purl.umn.edu/120418
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| Relação: |
University of California, Berkeley>Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics>CUDARE Working Papers
CUDARE Working Papers
1117R
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| Formato: |
41
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