| Registro completo |
| Provedor de dados: |
AgEcon
|
| País: |
United States
|
| Título: |
Wie viel bringt eine verbesserte Produktionsprogrammplanung auf der Grundlage einer systematischen Auswertung empirischer Zeitreihen? – Die Bedeutung von Prognosemodellen bei der Optimierung unter Unsicherheit
What benefits can be derived from systematic statistical analyses of empirical data and improved production program planning approaches? – The role of time series models in stochastic optimisation
|
| Autores: |
Musshoff, Oliver
Hirschauer, Norbert
|
| Data: |
2010-11-26
|
| Ano: |
2006
|
| Palavras-chave: |
Planning of the production program
Optimisation
Uncertainty
Static distributions
Stochastic processes
Farm Management
Risk and Uncertainty
|
| Resumo: |
In this paper we examine whether there is room for improvement in farm program decisions through the integration of formal mathematical optimisation into the planning process. Probing the potential for improvement, we investigate the cases of four Brandenburg cash crop farms over the last six years. We find that their total gross margins could have been increased significantly through a more sophisticated program planning. However, we also find that the superiority of formalised planning approaches depends on the quality of the data. The superior formal planning approach includes, in contrast to farmers’ ad hoc planning, a systematic time series analysis of gross margins and a stochastic optimisation model. For each of the six years, the formal planning approach provides optimised alternative programs based on the information available to the farmers at the respective time of planning. In order to avoid solutions that exceed the farmers’ risk tolerance, the variance of the observed program’s total gross margin which implicitly reflects the risk attitude of the individual farmer is used as an upper bound in the optimisation. Using the yields and prices realised at the end of each planning period, the total gross margins that could have been realized through the formally optimised programs in each year are then compared to those that were actually realised.
|
| Tipo: |
Journal Article
|
| Idioma: |
Alemão
|
| Identificador: |
ISSN 0002-1121
http://purl.umn.edu/97196
|
| Relação: |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics> Volume 55, Issue 4, 2006
|
| Formato: |
13
|
|
