| Registro completo |
| Provedor de dados: |
AgEcon
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| País: |
United States
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| Título: |
Ambiguous Aggregation of Expert Opinions: The Case of Optimal R&D Investment
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| Autores: |
Athanassoglou, Stergios
Bosetti, Valentina
Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier de
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| Data: |
2012-03-14
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| Ano: |
2012
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| Palavras-chave: |
Ambiguity
Expert Opinions
R&D
Convex/Conic Optimization
Aggregation
Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
C61
D81
Q42
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| Resumo: |
How should a decision-maker allocate R&D funds when a group of experts provides divergent estimates on a technology's potential effectiveness? To address this question, we propose a simple decision-theoretic framework that takes into account ambiguity over the aggregation of expert opinion and a decision-maker's attitude towards it. In line with the paper's focus on R&D investment, decision variables in our model may affect experts' subjective probability distributions of the future potential of a technology. Using results from convex optimization, we are able to establish a number of analytical results including a closed-form expression of our model's value function, as well as a thorough investigation of its differentiability properties. We apply our framework to original data from a recent expert elicitation survey on solar technology. The analysis suggests that more aggressive investment in solar technology R&D is likely to yield significant dividends even, or rather especially, after taking ambiguous aggregation into account.
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| Tipo: |
Working Paper
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| Idioma: |
Inglês
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| Identificador: |
http://purl.umn.edu/121719
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| Relação: |
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)>Climate Change and Sustainable Development
CCSD
4.2012
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| Formato: |
45
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