| Registro completo |
| Provedor de dados: |
AgEcon
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| País: |
United States
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| Título: |
Rationality of U.S. Department of Agriculture Livestock Price Forecasts: A Unified Approach
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| Autores: |
Sanders, Dwight R.
Manfredo, Mark R.
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| Data: |
2008-04-28
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| Ano: |
2007
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| Palavras-chave: |
Forecast evaluation
Livestock prices
Rationality
Livestock Production/Industries
C53
Q13
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| Resumo: |
This research presents a systematic and unified approach to evaluating forecast rationality that considers the potential of nonstationarity in forecasts and realized values. The approach is applied to one-quarter ahead U.S. Department of Agriculture livestock price forecasts from 1982 through 2004. Results show that forecasts and realized prices are integrated of the same order, and those that are nonstationary are cointegrated. However, the stationary price forecasts for hogs, turkeys, eggs, and milk are biased and improperly scaled, and forecast errors tend to be repeated. Similarly, nonstationary forecasts for cattle and broilers are also biased and irrational in the long run, but short-run dynamics are rational.
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| Tipo: |
Journal Article
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| Idioma: |
Inglês
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| Identificador: |
29800
http://purl.umn.edu/6658
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| Relação: |
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics>Volume 39, Number 01, April 2007
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| Formato: |
11
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