| Registro completo |
| Provedor de dados: |
AgEcon
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| País: |
United States
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| Título: |
Impacts of Weather and Time Horizon Selection on Crop Insurance Ratemaking: A Conditional Distribution Approach
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| Autores: |
Woodard, Joshua D.
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| Data: |
2011-05-04
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| Ano: |
2011
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| Palavras-chave: |
Conditional Weibull Distribution
Conditional Production Function
Catastrophic Risk Modeling
Sample Selection
Yield Risk
Crop Insurance
Ratemaking
Crop Production/Industries
Risk and Uncertainty
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| Resumo: |
An important issue in the agricultural actuarial literature is the extent to which sample period selection affects the accuracy of insurance rating. A conditional Weibull distribution approach is developed which explicitly models the interaction of weather, technology, and other variables on probabilistic yield outcomes to address this issue. Results from an application with an extensive producer-level yield dataset representing commercial-scale Illinois firms suggest that the impact of weather heterogeneity on risk estimation across reasonable samples is likely not as great as is often claimed. The results also suggest that yield risk is decreasing significantly through time, and indicate the presence of trend acceleration. A rating analysis indicates that violations in the risk evolution assumptions of the rating approaches used in the Federal Crop Insurance Program—which implicitly assume increasing yield risk through time when yields trend—result in severely biased rates, with typical overstatements of 200% to 400% for Midwest corn.
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| Tipo: |
Conference Paper or Presentation
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| Idioma: |
Inglês
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| Identificador: |
http://purl.umn.edu/103929
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| Relação: |
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association>2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Selected Paper
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| Formato: |
34
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