| Registro completo |
| Provedor de dados: |
AgEcon
|
| País: |
United States
|
| Título: |
Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information
|
| Autores: |
Taylor, Mykel R.
Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.
Kastens, Terry L.
|
| Data: |
2007-09-17
|
| Ano: |
2006
|
| Palavras-chave: |
Basis forecast
Crop basis
Current information
Naive forecast
Marketing
|
| Resumo: |
This research compares practical methods of forecasting basis, using current market information for wheat, soybeans, corn, and milo (grain sorghum) in Kansas. Though generally not statistically superior, an historical one-year average was optimal for corn, milo, and soybean harvest and post-harvest basis forecasts. A one-year average was also best for wheat post-harvest basis forecasts, whereas a five-year average was the best method for forecasting wheat harvest basis. Incorporating current market information, defined as basis deviation from historical average, improved the accuracy of post-harvest basis forecasts. A naive forecast incorporating current information was often the most accurate for post-harvest basis forecasts.
|
| Tipo: |
Journal Article
|
| Idioma: |
Inglês
|
| Identificador: |
28023
http://purl.umn.edu/8625
|
| Editor: |
AgEcon Search
|
| Relação: |
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics>Volume 31, Number 03, December 2006
|
| Formato: |
19
application/pdf
|
|
