| Resumo: |
Sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) grows in different weather and management conditions which directly affect crop maturation. These conditions lead to the necessity of quantifying crop response to different stimuli for planning purposes. Forecast models for the quality of raw material are important tools in sugarcane farming, especially the forecast curve of sucrose accumulation in shoots. The goal of these models is to supply yield estimates during the crop cycle, aiming to characterize alternatives and to increase the efficacy for management and strategic decisions. The objective of this project was to develop empiric models capable of obtaining estimates of total recoverable sugar (TRS), for the varieties RB72454, SP81-3250 and SP80-1842 during the crop cycle, using reference data as the production factors. Sugarcane harvest results obtained in Piracicaba, State of São Paulo, Brazil were analyzed using the following parameters: maturation, stand age, type of soil, variety, flowering and management for the crops in the years 1998/99, 1999/00, 2000/01, 2001/02 and 2002/03. Models developed for these years were used to estimate TRS from the 2003/04 cropping season. All the forecast models for ratoon crops were significant indicating that they are an excellent tool to optimize agricultural planning.
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