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| Registros recuperados: 73 | |
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| Hennessy, David A.. |
| Concerns about biosecurity in the food system raise a variety of issues about how the system is presently organized, why it might be vulnerable, what one could reasonably do to better secure it, and the costs of doing so. After presenting some facts about US agriculture and food, this paper considers three economic aspects of the general problem. One is the global problem, or the way biosecurity measures can affect how countries relate to each other and the global consequences that result. Another is how to best manage the immediate aftermath of a realized threat in order to minimize damage. The third is how to seek to prevent realization of the threat. Some policy alternatives are also presented. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Agro-terrorism; Animal disease; Biosecurity; Epidemic; Food system policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9371 |
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| Hennessy, David A.. |
| The modeling of price risk in the theory and practice of commodity risk management has been developed far beyond that of crop yield risk. This is in large part due to the use of plausible stochastic price processes. We use the Pólya urn to identify and develop a model of the crop yield expectation stochastic process over a growing season. The process allows a role for agronomic events, such as growing degree days. The model is internally consistent in adhering to the martingale property. The limiting distribution is the beta, commonly used in yield modeling. By applying binomial tree analysis, we show how to use the framework to study hedging decisions and crop valuation. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Growing degree days; Martingale; Pólya urn; Stochastic process.; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54829 |
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| Roosen, Jutta; Hennessy, David A.. |
| Among the prominent recognized features of the industrialization of animal production over the past half century are growth in the stock of inflexible or use-dedicated capital as an input in production and growth in productivity. Less recognized is a trend toward aseasonal production. We record the deseasonalization of animal production in the United States and Europe over the past 70 years. We also suggest that (a) lower seasonality can precede or Granger-cause increased productivity because of increased capital intensity, and (b) productivity improvements can Granger-cause lower seasonality. Process (a) should be more likely earlier in the industrialization process. For U.S. dairy production, our empirical tests find some evidence that process (a)... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Capital intensity; Causality; Dairy; Regional production systems; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18376 |
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| Dong, Fengxia; Hennessy, David A.; Jensen, Helen H.; Park, Timothy A.. |
| The most widely used measure of milk hygiene is Somatic Cell Count (SCC), where low SCC values indicate more wholesome milk. Dirt, often associated with grazing, carry bacteria and these bacteria can cause mastitis. Milk from cows with mastitis generally has higher SCC levels and cows with mastitis are most readily treated with antibiotics. Milk with high SCC is penalized by distributers as it is difficult to process and is not considered as wholesome in fluid markets. Grazing cows is common for many organic farmers. However, regulators prohibit antibiotic use under organic production. Intensive management protocols, maintaining equipment, and closely managing the herd’s environment offer substitutes for antibiotics use. Organic milk carries with it a... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Milk; Organic; Quality; Quantile; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61137 |
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| Hennessy, David A.; Saak, Alexander E.. |
| Biotechnology has enriched the strategy set available to crop managers. Suppose a manager faces a decision between applying a pre-emergence pesticide or applying nothing at all. The advent of pesticide tolerance traits in plants admits the possibility of a state-contingent post-emergence application of pesticide. The innovation adds value in large part because it provides the manager with the option to wait for more information. For heterogeneous acre types, the determinants of trait royalties and of crop management strategies in equilibrium are studied. Pest resistance traits have different implications for crop management. Whereas a tolerance trait likely complements information technologies, the addition of a resistance trait may substitute for them. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Genetic trait; Information inputs; Patent value; Real option; Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18515 |
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| Saak, Alexander E.; Hennessy, David A.. |
| There exists much uncertainty about consumer attitudes towards genetically modified foods. If it happens that sufficient (insufficient) acres are planted under non-modified seed to meet post-harvest demand, then a price premium will not (will) emerge for the non-modified varieties. A non-linearity originates in the fact that a price premium may be supported. This non-linearity interacts with the extent of demand uncertainty to determine equilibrium varietal plantings and the probability that post-harvest varietal prices will differ. Also, as planting approaches signals will be received by growers about the nature of demand they will be planting into. We show how the non-linearity affects the order on the types of signals that risk-neutral growers will... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20581 |
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| Roosen, Jutta; Hennessy, David A.. |
| Antibiotics are used in fruit production to control fire blight, a bacterial disease of fruit trees that causes yield losses and eventually tree death. Fearing the development of widespread antibiotic resistance, scientists and public health officials are becoming increasingly concerned about antibiotics use in agriculture. A framework is developed for assessing the impacts of changes in tree damage risk following a ban on antibiotics use in the apple industry. Allowing for entry and exit, a long-run analysis of replanting dates and equilibrium prices is provided, as well as an estimate of the welfare impacts of a ban on antibiotics. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31042 |
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| Hennessy, David A.. |
| While the preponderance of empirical studies point to negative crop yield skewness in a wide variety of contexts, the literature provides few clear insights on why this is so. The purpose of this paper is to make three points on the matter. We show formally that statistical laws on aggregates do not suggest a normal yield distribution. We explain that whenever the weather-conditioned mean yield has diminishing marginal product, then there is a disposition toward negative skewness in aggregate yields. This is because a high marginal product in bad weather states stretches out the left tail of the yield distribution relative to that of the weather distribution. Turning to disaggregated yields, we decompose unconditional skewness into weather-conditioned... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Conditional distribution; Crop insurance; Negative skewness; Spatial heterogeneity; Statistical laws.. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37548 |
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| Hennessy, David A.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Hayes, Dermot J.. |
| The efficiency of redistribution of a government provided revenue insurance program is compared with the 1990 farm program. The results indicate the revenue insurance would be more efficient because it would provide subsidies when and only when revenue is low and marginal utility is high, and it works on the component of the objective function (revenue) that is of greatest relevance to producers. Simulation results indicate that a revenue insurance scheme that guarantees 75 percent of expected revenue to risk-averse producers could provide approximately the same level of benefits as the 1990 program, at as little as one-fourth the cost. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1997 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18628 |
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| Hennessy, David A.. |
| Agricultural production is becoming more like manufacturing in the routinization of processes, the extent to which raw materials are processed, capital intensity, and its emphasis on throughput. Some ascribe the changes to demand-side factors while others look to technological innovations. Emphasizing cost seasonality as a reference indicator for nature's role in agricultural production, this paper develops a simple model that includes both supply and demand sides. We show how cost seasonality can impede product development to meet consumer needs and find that there may be a ceiling level of cost seasonality below which a non-seasonal equilibrium production profile occurs. Price seasonality is decreasing in cost seasonality. An increase in demand for... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Industrialization; Lifestyle changes; Regional production systems; Value added; Consumer/Household Economics; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18529 |
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| Feng, Hongli; Hennessy, David A.. |
| Pigouvian taxes are typically imposed in situations where there is imperfect knowledge on the extent of damage caused by a producing firm. A regulator imposing imperfectly informed Pigouvian taxes may cause the firms that should (should not) produce to shut down (produce). In this paper we use a Bayesian information framework to identify optimal signal-conditioned taxes in the presence of such losses. The tax system involves reducing (increasing) taxes on firms identified as causing high (low) damage. Unfortunately, when an abatement decision has to be made, the tax system that minimizes production distortions also dampens the incentive to abate. In the absence of wrong-firm concerns, a regulator can solve the problem by not adjusting taxes for signal... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Conditioning; Heterogeneity; Informativeness; Pigouvian tax; Signaling; Environmental Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18480 |
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| Hennessy, David A.. |
| The spatial dimension of agricultural production is important when a communicable disease enters a region. This paper considers two sorts of biosecurity risk that producers can seek to protect against. One concerns the risk of spread: that neighboring producers do not take due care in protecting against being infected by a disease already in the region. In this case, producer efforts substitute with those of near neighbors. For representative spatial production structures, we characterize Nash equilibrium protection levels and show how spatial production structure matters. The other sort of risk concerns entry: that producers do not take due care in preventing the disease from entering the region. In this case, producer heterogeneity has subtle effects on... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Circle and line topologies; Complements and substitutes; Epidemic; Public good; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18434 |
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| Registros recuperados: 73 | |
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