SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Jackson, Thomas E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..

The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1997 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1997. The average net advisory price across all 23 corn programs is $2.32 per bushel. The net advisory prices for corn range from a minimum of $2.00 per bushel to a maximum of $2.74 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 21 soybean programs is $6.40 per bushel. The net advisory prices for soybeans range from a minimum of $6.08 per bushel to a maximum of $6.99 per bushel.

1996 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS

Palavras-chave: Evaluation of advisory services; Pricing performance; Soybeans; C8; D4; D8; L1; M3; Q0; Z0; Marketing.

Ano: 1999

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14780

Jackson, Thomas E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L..

The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1996 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1996. The average net advisory price across all 26 corn programs is $2.63 per bushel. The range of net advisory prices for corn is quite large, with a minimum of $2.08 per bushel and a maximum of $3.12 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 24 soybean programs is $7.27 per bushel. As with corn, the range of net advisory prices for soybeans is substantial, with a minimum of $6.80 per bushel and a maximum of $7.80 per bushel.

Adoption of New Seed Varieties Under Production Risk: An Application to Rice in Iran

Palavras-chave: Agricultural Market Advisory Services; G1; D8; D7; D4; G2; H4; H8; Q1; Z1; Marketing.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14787

Bakhshoodeh, Mohamad; Shajari, S..

This paper focuses on linkage between new rice seed varieties and production risk and also factors affecting adoption of these varieties in Iran. Farm-level data were collected from a sample of 154 rice farms located in two major districts of Fars province in Southern Iran for 2001-02. The risk-premium associated with the use of seed is estimated following by analyzing a moment-based production risk approach. The results show that the risk premium increases with new seed varieties in the lack of appropriate production conditions implying that new seed varieties is a riskincreasing input and involves a higher cost of risk. However, under suitable production conditions, the cultivation of new rice varieties on average ensures greater yield and at the same...

Economic and environmental effects of an EU flat rate for the Dutch agricultural sector

Palavras-chave: Production risk; Moments-based estimation; New seed varieties; Rice; Crop Production/Industries; D8; Q12; Q16.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25578

Helming, John F.M.; Peerlings, Jack H.M..

The objective of this research is to give insights into the production, income and environmental effects of the introduction of an EU flat rate for Dutch agriculture. For this purpose, a detailed agri-environmental programming model for Dutch agriculture is used. Results of the EU flat rate scenario are compared to a reference scenario that describes agricultural production in the Netherlands in 2020. Results show that total gross margin in Dutch agriculture decreases because of the EU flat rate with 7%. The supply of starch potatoes and cow milk decreases most. Production of seed and consumption potatoes, vegetables and intensive livestock products increases slightly. This is largely due to a shift of farm payments from milk and starch potatoes...

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: EU flat rate; Mathematical programming; Income volatility; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; D8.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122481

Decision Support Systems in Australian Agriculture: State of the Art and Future Development

Nguyen, Nam C.; Wegener, Malcolm K.; Russell, Iean W..

This paper reports and discusses the results of a survey conducted with experts working in the field of decision support systems (DSS) in Australian agriculture. It also reviews the literature on DSS in the light of these experts' responses. The findings from this survey have consolidated our understanding of the current state of DSS in Australian agriculture. The uptake of DSS by farmers has been slow and various issues said to be contributing to this include fear of using computers, time constraints, poor marketing, complexity, lack of local relevance, lack of end-user involvement, and mismatched objectives between developers and users. The future prospect for the development of DSS was generally regarded to be poor. Never-the-less, the authors believe...

Riesgo y rentabilidad en empresas ganaderas.

Palavras-chave: DSS; Farmers' decision-making; Expert opinion; Management decisions; Farm Management; D7; D8; Q12; Q13; Q16.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25581

Helguera, Lorenzo; Lanfranco, Bruno A..

La producción agropecuaria está muy expuesta a los posibles efectos negativos de una serie de factores que presentan un muy alto grado de variabilidad. Factores climáticos, biológicos, institucionales, humanos y de mercados, afectan rendimientos y precios de productos e insumos. Estos factores son responsables del riesgo económico al que toda empresa está expuesta – cualquiera sea la forma en que se financie – y que puede originar grandes pérdidas en poco tiempo. Por otro lado, el riesgo financiero refiere a la posibilidad, incierta muchas veces, que el productor no pueda hacer frente a sus obligaciones financieras (pago de intereses y amortización de deudas), lo cual puede afectar la misma viabilidad de la empresa. Ambos riesgos están íntimamente ligados,...

Tipo: Book

Palavras-chave: Breakeven point; Leverage; Farm management; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; D8; M1; Q14.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121687

Regulation of Stock Externalities with Correlated Costs

Karp, Larry S.; Zhang, Jiangfeng.

We study a dynamic regulation model where firms' actions contribute to a stock externality. The regulator and firms have asymmetric information about serially correlated abatement costs. With price-based policies such as taxes, or if firms trade quotas efficiently, the regulator learns about the evolution of both stock and costs. This ability to learn about costs is important in determining the ranking of taxes and quotas, and in determining the value of a feedback rather than an open-loop policy.

Project-Based Mechanisms for Emissions Reductions: Balancing Trade-offs with Baselines

Palavras-chave: Pollution control; Asymmetric information; Learning; Correlated costs; Choice of instruments; Environmental Economics and Policy; C61; D8; H21; Q28.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25077

Fischer, Carolyn.

Project-based mechanisms for emissions reductions credits, like the Clean Development Mechanism, pose important challenges for policy design because of several inherent characteristics. Participation is voluntary, so it will not occur without sufficient credits. Evaluating reductions requires assigning an emissions baseline for a counterfactual that cannot be measured. Some investments have both economic and environmental benefits and might occur anyway. Uncertainty surrounds both emissions and investment returns, and parties to the project are likely to have more information than the certifying authority. The certifying agent is limited in its ability to design a contract that would reveal investment intentions. As a result, rules for benchmarking...

Weather Derivatives as an Instrument to Hedge Against the Risk of High Energy Cost in Greenhouse Production

Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Clean Development Mechanism; Baselines; Asymmetric information; Offsets; Emissions reduction; Tradable emissions permits; Environmental Economics and Policy; D8; Q4.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10836

Berg, Ernst; Schmitz, Bernhard; Starp, Michael.

In many areas agriculture is exposed to weather related risks. Weather derivatives that get more and more in the focus of interest can reduce these risks. In this study we develop a temperature based weather derivative and analyse how it can reduce the weather-related energy cost risk in greenhouse production. We base this study on a temperature index whose stochastic characteristics are analysed. Finally we simulate the heating demand for energy of a horticultural firm.

A Two-Stage Value Chain Model for Vegetable Marketing Chain Efficiency Evaluation: A Transaction Cost Approach

Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C22; D8; Q14.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25629

Lu, Hualiang.

We applied a two-stage value chain model to investigate the effects of input application and occasional transaction costs on vegetable marketing chain efficiencies with a farm household-level data set. In the first stage, the production efficiencies with the combination of resource endowments, capital and managerial inputs, and production techniques were evaluated; then at the second stage, the marketing technical efficiencies were determined under the marketing value of the vegetables for three typical marketing chains in Nanjing area, P.R. China. The impacts of the transaction costs to the supply chain technical efficiency both at the production and marketing stages were examined by using Tobit model. Study showed that transaction costs significantly...

Testing for Speculative Behavior in US Corn Ethanol Investments

Palavras-chave: Two-stage value chain model; Data envelopment analysis; Technical efficiency; Transaction cost; Vegetable; China; Industrial Organization; D1; D8; Q13; Q18.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25327

Kumarappan, Subbu; Gustafson, Cole R..

Crude oil price speculation during 2000s could have increased installed capacity in corn ethanol plants beyond what was warranted by the market factors. We use Muth’s commodity pricing model and Flood and Garber’s tests to test for speculative investment in US corn ethanol industry. The ethanol price expectations are derived using a system of supply-demand-inventory describing US ethanol markets under rational expectations (perfect foresight). These price expectations can help differentiate the installed capacity into two: capacity supported by the market fundamentals and the probable capacity that is installed based on speculation. Econometric estimation procedures and functional form approximations are discussed.

POWDERY MILDEW RISK AND FORECASTING IN WINE GRAPES: DO GROWERS CHANGE RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES IN RESPONSE TO DISEASE FORECASTS?

Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Speculation; Commodity prices; Investment; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Q14; Q41; D8; L71.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61418

Lybbert, Travis J.; Magnan, Nicholas; Gubler, W. Douglas.

How and how well growers manage the risks inherent in agriculture has direct welfare implications for producers and consumers at both local and societal levels. While better weather, pest and disease forecast information are rapidly disseminating among producers and are often touted as promising inputs to production and risk management, little is known about how this new information actually shapes producer behavior in practice. We argue that better forecast information can benefit growers and improve their capacity to manage disease and pests effectively, but that we must jointly consider the various margins of adjustment available to growers in order to properly understand their response to this improved information. Using the case of California wine...

Effects of volatile output prices on agricultural land-use change

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; D8; Q1; Q5.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61745

Boere, Esther; Peerlings, Jack H.M.; Reinhard, Stijn; Kuhlman, Tom; Heijman, Wim J.M..

Volatile output prices lead to a fluctuating shadow price (profitability) of agricultural land, and therefore may impact land use decisions in case of risk-averse behaviour. In this paper we assess the effect of volatile agricultural output prices on agricultural land-use change over the past decade in the Netherlands. Using regional data from 2000 through 2009, the number of hectares of land for 10 land uses was calculated. To determine the joint distribution of agricultural activities, hectares of land for each land use were converted to land share equations. Land share equations were estimated to determine the contribution of increased price volatility to land use change. Results show that larger volatility affects land shares negatively. Producer’s...

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: Land-use; Risk; Price volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; D8.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122472

Estimation with Price and Output Uncertainty

THE MARKETING STYLE OF ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN 1995

Alghalith, Moawia.

This paper extends the existing estimation methods to allow estimation under simultaneous price and output uncertainty. In contrast with the previous literature, our approach is applicable to the direct and indirect utility functions and does not require specification and estimation of the production function. We derive estimating equations for the two most common forms of output risk (additive and multiplicative risks) and empirically determine which form is appropriate. Moreover, our estimation method can be utilized by future empirical studies in several ways. First, our method can be extended to include multiple sources of uncertainty. Second, it is applicable to other specifications of output uncertainty. Third, it can be used to conduct hypothesis...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Estimating equations; Output uncertainty; Price uncertainty; Utility; D8; D2.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37108

Bertoli, Roberto; Zuluaf, Carl R.; Irwin, Scott H.; Jackson, Thomas E.; Good, Darrel L..

The 1995 marketing styles for the 25 market advisory service programs included in the AgMAS Project were developed in two steps. The first step was the construction of a detailed "menu" of the tools and strategies used by each of the advisory programs in marketing corn and soybeans. The menu describes the type of pricing tool, frequency of transactions, and magnitude of transactions. The second step was the development of a daily index of the net amount sold by each market advisory program. To construct such an index, the various futures, options, and cash positions recommended for a program on a given day were weighted by the respective position "delta." When the daily values of the index were plotted for the entire marketing period, the marketing...

Auctioning Conservation Payments using Environmental Indices

Palavras-chave: Advisory services; Pricing tools; Pricing strategies; Assessment of recommendations; D4; C8; D8; M3; Q0; Marketing.

Ano: 1999

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14792

Cattaneo, Andrea.

A framework for analyzing conservation programs that rank applications using environmental indices is presented. We derive the optimal bid from the farmer's perspective for both land retirement and working lands agri-environmental payment programs and we analyze how these solutions depend on program design parameters. The distinction is made between environmental objectives based on whether the farmer exercises control or not over the level proposed in a bid to participate in a program. The optimization model is solved analytically for two cases - a land retirement and a working lands program - highlighting the differences in the results. For land retirement programs we conclude that, for the cases considered, the exogenous environmental performance does...

Experimental Evidence of Risk Aversion in Consumer Markets: The Case of Beef Tenderness

Palavras-chave: Environmental payments; Program design; Participation incentives; D8; H5; Q28; Environmental Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25438

Alfnes, Frode; Rickertsen, Kyrre; Ueland, Oydis.

Consistency of quality is important for brand loyalty and market share in consumer markets. Among consumers of beef, tenderness is the primary quality attribute. We use an experimental auction market to investigate how inconsistency in tenderness affects consumers willingness to pay (WTP) for beef. We find that both the level and the spread of tenderness affect consumers WTP for beef. Categorization the beef into various classes of tenderness increased the total value of the beef by 8%, which suggests that improved tenderness labeling may be a profitable strategy.

Nutrient Best Management Practice Insurance and Farmer Perceptions of Adoption Risk

Palavras-chave: Beef tenderness; Consumer demand; Experimental auction; Marketing; Risk aversion; Consumer/Household Economics; C91; D12; D8; Q13.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24553

Profit Sharing under the Threat of Nationalization

Mitchell, Paul D..

This paper explores the effect farmer perceptions concerning how best management practice (BMP) adoption changes the profit distribution have on BMP adoption incentives and the potential for insurance to increase these incentives. Adoption indifference curves illustrate the effect of farmer perceptions on BMP adoption incentives and the potential for insurance to expand the set of perceptions consistent with adoption. Empirical analysis quantifies these conceptual results for nutrient BMP insurance, a new policy available to corn farmers as part of a USDA-Risk Management Agency pilot program in four states. Results indicate that nutrient BMP insurance can have economically relevant effects on farmer adoption incentives.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Adoption indifference curves; Crop insurance; Fertilizer; Green insurance; D8; Q12; Q16; Q21.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43460

Di Corato, Luca.

A multinational corporation engages in foreign direct investment for the extraction of a natural resource in a developing country. The corporation bears the initial investment and earns as a return a share of the profits. The host country provides access and guarantees conditions of operation. Since the investment is totally sunk, the corporation must account in its plan not only for uncertainty in market conditions but also for the threat of nationalization. In a real options framework, where the government holds an American call option on nationalization, we show under which conditions a Nash bargaining leads to a profit distribution maximizing the joint venture surplus. We find that the threat of nationalization does not affect the investment threshold...

Risk Valuation in the Presence of Risky Substitutes: An Application to Demand for Seafood

Palavras-chave: Real Options; Nash Bargaining; Expropriation; Natural Resources; Foreign Direct Investment; International Relations/Trade; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C7; D8; K3; F2; O1.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58292