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Spatio-temporal Risk and Severity Analysis of Soybean Rust in the United States AgEcon
Bekkerman, Anton; Goodwin, Barry K.; Piggott, Nicholas E..
Soybean rust is a highly mobile infectious disease and can be transmitted across short and long distances. Soybean rust is estimated to cause yield losses that can range between 1%-25%. An analysis of spatio-temporal infection risks within the United States is performed through the use of a unique data set. Observations from over 35,000 field-level inspections between 2005 and 2007 are used to conduct a county-level analysis. Statistical inferences are derived by employing zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models. In addition, the model is adjusted to account for potential endogeneity between inspections and soybean rust finds. Past soybean rust finds and inspections in the county and in the surrounding counties, weather and overwintering...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Insurance contracts; Risk analysis; Soybean rust; Zero-inflated model; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46564
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Agricultural Risk Aversion Revisited: A Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach AgEcon
Gomez-Limon, Jose Antonio; Riesgo, Laura; Arriaza Balmón, Manuel.
In modelling farm systems it is widely accepted that risk plays a central role. Furthermore, farmers' risk aversion determines their decisions in both the short and the long run. This paper presents a methodology based on multiple criteria mathematical programming to obtain relative and absolute risk aversion coefficients. We rely on multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) to elicit a separable additive multiattribute utility function and then estimate the risk aversion coefficients and apply this methodology to an irrigated area of Northern Spain. The results show a wide variety of attitudes to risk among farmers, who mainly exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA).
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Agriculture; Utility theory; Multiple criteria analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24827
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FORWARD SHIPPING OPTIONS FOR GRAIN BY RAIL: A STRATEGIC RISK ANALYSIS; SUMMARY AgEcon
Priewe, Steven R.; Wilson, William W..
Grain hauling railroads began offering shipping alternatives in the late 1980s that have made transportation decisions more strategic. Shippers now confront alternatives ranging from nearby and unguaranteed ordering to various durations of forward and guaranteed shipment. A dynamic stochastic simulation model was developed to analyze grain shipping and merchandising strategies that integrate these alternatives.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Railroads; Grain merchandising; Logistics; Simulation; Risk analysis; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23256
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FORWARD SHIPPING OPTIONS FOR GRAIN BY RAIL: A STRATEGIC RISK ANALYSIS AgEcon
Priewe, Steven R.; Wilson, William W..
Grain hauling railroads began offering shipping alternatives in the late 1980s that have made transportation decisions more strategic. Shippers now confront alternatives ranging from nearby and unguaranteed ordering to various durations of forward and guaranteed shipment. A dynamic stochastic simulation model was developed to analyze grain shipping and merchandising strategies that integrate these alternatives.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Railroads; Grain merchandising; Logistics; Simulation; Risk analysis; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23414
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Agricultural Contracting Update, 2005 AgEcon
MacDonald, James M.; Korb, Penelope J..
More than half of all transactions for U.S. agricultural products are still conducted through spot market exchanges, in which commodities are bought and sold in open market transactions for immediate delivery. But a growing share of U.S. farm production is produced and sold under agricultural contracts. Such contracts between farmers and their buyers are reached prior to harvest (or before the completion stage for livestock) and govern the terms under which products are transferred from the farm. The shift of production to contracting coincides with shifts of production to larger farms. Contracts are far more likely to be used on large farms than on small ones. Marketing and production contracts covered 41 percent of the value of U.S. agricultural...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Production contracts; Marketing contracts; Farm structure; Farm size; Contracting; Agricultural Resource Management Survey; ARMS; Risk analysis; Marketing; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58639
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Australia’s biosecurity: future challenges for animal industries AgEcon
Nunn, Mike J..
Australia’s very good animal health status faces a wide range of biosecurity challenges that will arise during the next decade from changes in disease risk, ecosystems, technology and the policy environment in which animal producers operate. An understanding of these challenges should help enable producers to adopt management strategies to make their enterprises more resilient, as well as help policy-makers make better-informed choices to maintain and improve the health of Australia’s animals and animal industries.
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Animal health; Biosecurity; Climate change; Ecosystem change; Emerging diseases; Environmental change; Policy; Risk; Risk analysis; Technology; Farm Management.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122900
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Location Preference for Risk-Averse Dutch Dairy Farmers Immigrating to the United States AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Herbst, Brian K.; Duncan, Anthony; den Besten, Mark; van Hoven, Peter.
Increased environmental regulations and a milk quota that restricts growth have increased the interest in immigration to the United States by Dutch dairy farmers. A risk-based economic analysis of 23 representative U.S. dairy farms versus a representative Dutch farm shows that risk-averse Dutch dairy farmers would prefer to liquidate their dairy farms and invest in a large dairy in Idaho or north Texas. The risk ranking suggested that continuing to farm in the Netherlands rather than immigrating to the United States is preferred over only two of the 23 U.S. representative farms analyzed.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Dairy relocation; Production economics; Ranking risky alternatives; Risk analysis; F21; F22; Q12; Q14; E37; D81.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37061
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Risk and Nitrogen Application Decisions in Florida Potato Production AgEcon
Asci, Serhat; Borisova, Tatiana; VanSickle, John J.; Zotarelli, Lincoln.
This study focuses on development of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) for potato production areas in Northeast Florida, and presents the results of the initial situation assessment. BMP implementation is the primary strategy used by agencies and farmers to improve the efficiency and to ensure environmental sustainability of agricultural production. Although BMPs are defined as “economically feasible” and “cost-effective”, economic analysis conducted as a part of BMP development has been limited, leaving the room for disagreement about economic impacts of specific BMPs. As a part of the situation assessment, we used interviews, group discussions, a survey, and a field trip to collect information about farmers’ production practices and to...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Florida potato production; Partial budget analysis; Risk analysis; Best management practice; Nitrogen fertilization; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119797
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Agricultural Contracting Update: Contracts in 2003 AgEcon
MacDonald, James M.; Korb, Penelope J..
Marketing and production contracts covered 39 percent of the value of U.S. agricultural production in 2003, up from 36 percent in 2001 and a substantial increase over estimated values of 28 percent for 1991 and 11 percent in 1969. Large farms are far more likely to contract than small farms; in fact, contracts cover over half of the value of production from farms with at least $1 million in sales. Although use of both production and marketing contracts has grown over time, growth is more rapid for production contracts, which are largely used for livestock.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Contracts; Contracting; Marketing contracts; Production contracts; Vertical integration; Vertical coordination; Market structure; Risk analysis; Price signals; Industrial Organization; Marketing.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33903
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Agricultural Contracting Update: Contracts in 2008 AgEcon
MacDonald, James M.; Korb, Penelope J..
Marketing and production contracts covered 39 percent of the value of U.S. agricultural production in 2008, up from 36 percent in 2001, and a substantial increase over 28 percent in 1991 and 11 percent in 1969. However, aggregate contract use has stabilized in recent years and no longer suggests a strong trend. Contracts between farmers and their buyers are reached prior to harvest (or before the completion stage for livestock)and govern the terms under which products are transferred from the farm. Contracts are far more likely to be used on large farms than on small farms, and they form one element in a package of risk management tools available to farmers. Production contracts are used widely in livestock production, while marketing contracts are...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Production contracts; Marketing contracts; Farm structure; Farm size; Farm income; Contracting; Agricultural Resource Management Survey; ARMS; Risk analysis; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101279
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Survival analysis of culling reasons and economic examination of production period in sow culling AgEcon
Balogh, Peter; Ertsey, Imre; Kovacs, Sandor.
The culling of the sows is an important task of the breeders and farmers, besides it is a determining factor of profitable pork production. During our research we have surveyed the data of 1969 sows in a Hungarian large-scale pig farm. For the calculation of our results we used one of the non-parametric forms of survival analysis, the Kaplan-Meier analysis. For the quantification of death intensity we applied another survival analysis model, the log-rate exponential model. We have found out the risk values of various culling reasons form the point of view of culling. Besides, we tried to quantify by an economic model how the production period of sows influences the average costs of piglets and the average costs of piglets per kilo at 2006 prices. We...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Sow culling; Risk analysis; Sow productivity; Average costs of piglets; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7794
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A Comparison of Risk Exposure in Aquaculture and Agricultural Businesses AgEcon
Flaten, Ola; Lien, Gudbrand D.; Tveteras, Ragnar.
Agriculture and aquaculture have common features associated with their biological nature affecting risk exposure of the businesses. The aim of this paper is to compare risk exposure in salmon farming and agricultural enterprises in Norway by using an implicit error component model to examine the risk structure of yields, prices and economic returns at the farm level. Results indicate a higher farm-level year-to-year variability in yields, prices and economic returns in salmon farming than in agricultural enterprises. The variability in livestock enterprises was generally lower than for crop enterprises. Return on assets was highest in salmon farming with an average annual return of 9.2%. All of the agricultural farm types exhibited a negative average...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Variability; Norway; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44052
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Crop Supply Response under Risk: Impacts of Emerging Issues on Southeastern U.S. Agriculture AgEcon
Liang, Yan; Miller, J. Corey; Harri, Ardian; Coble, Keith H..
In this paper we consider factors that affect both crop prices and yields in order to examine supply responses of major crops in the Southeast. Due to the variable nature of crop production in the Southeast, previous studies that ignore price and yield risk may fail to capture one of the salient features of the region’s agriculture. Our results indicate supply elasticity values for corn, cotton, and soybeans of approximately 0.670, 0.506, and 0.195, respectively. Compared with the results of studies in other regions, corn and cotton acres respond more to price changes and soybean acres respond less to price changes.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Acreage supply; Crop supply response model; Risk analysis; Southeast U.S. agriculture; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Q12; Q13; Q16.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104615
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Stochastic Efficiency Analysis With Risk Aversion Bounds: A Simplified Approach AgEcon
Hardaker, J. Brian; Lien, Gudbrand D..
A method of stochastic dominance analysis with respect to a function (SDRF) is described and illustrated. The method, called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF), partitions a set of risky alternatives in terms of certainty equivalents for a specified range of attitudes to risk. It can be applied for any utility function with risk attitudes defined by corresponding ranges of absolute, relative or partial risk aversion coefficients. SERF involves comparing each alternative with all the other alternatives simultaneously, not pairwise as with conventional SDRF. Hence it yields a subset of the efficient set found by SDRF. Moreover, the method is readily implemented in a simple spreadsheet with no special software needed.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Stochastic dominance with respect to a function; Risk aversion.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12954
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Risk and Income Risk Management Issues for Organic Crops in Greece AgEcon
Tzouramani, Irene; Karanikolas, Pavlos; Alexopoulos, George.
Drawing upon a comparative case study of organic and conventional farming in Western Greece, the aim of this study is threefold: firstly, to explore the organic and conventional farmers’ profile through a factor analysis. Secondly, to assess the economic viability of organic cultivation with respect to profitability and risk behaviour, through a Monte Carlo stochastic simulation model. Thirdly, to discuss the necessity for additional income insurance schemes. Research findings indicate that the organic cropping system currently stands out as the most economically viable alternative under the assumption of the existing payments; without payments, however, conventional agriculture would be preferred by all farmers, regardless of their degree of risk aversion
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Organic crops; Income variability; Risk analysis; SERF; Agricultural policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48116
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Viabilidade econômica da agroindústria familiar rural de frutas na zona da mata mineira AgEcon
Moreira, Renata Couto; Reis, Bricio dos Santos; Souza, Vagner Ferraz; Fialho, Roberta; Rigueira, Cristiana Vieria Leocadio.
The called Rural Familiar Agroindustry aims at, over all, the production of value of exchange which takes place in the commercialization. From the presuppose that exists an important pass between the agricultural production and its draining, the article brings an analysis of the economic viability of the rural familiar agroindustry, bringing as case study a typical agroindustry of candies of fruits in the Zona da Mata Mineira region. By the elaboration of the box flow of the project, a sensibility analysis and a risk analysis by the Mont Carlo simulation method were realized. The joined results were favorable to the stimulation to the implantation in a bigger scale, with public policies, of projects as the studied one, as a proposal of regional development.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Familiar agriculture; Fruit agroindustry; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54596
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Economic Feasibility of Sustainable High Oilseed-Based Biofuel Production: The Case for Biodiesel in North Carolina AgEcon
Yeboah, Anthony K.; Naanwaab, Cephas B.; Yeboah, Osei-Agyeman; Owens, John Paul; Bynum, Jarvetta S..
We assess the economic feasibility of a 10 MMGY biodiesel plant using a Monte Carlo Cash Flow model programmed in Excel using @Risk, a simulation and risk analysis software. The model incorporates stochastic components to capture uncertainty in the analysis. The stochastic components are mainly variables that may exhibit risk, such as input prices, output prices, and expected revenues, and these are assigned probability distributions in the model. The model is programmed with three output variables: stream of revenues, profits/loss, and the resulting net present value (NPV) over ten year forecast period. Results from the cash flow analysis show that average expected revenues from the sale of biodiesel and co-products will be $48.5 million and total...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Economic feasibility; Biodiesel; Monte carlo simulations; Risk analysis; Sensitivity analysis.; Agribusiness; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119729
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MODELLING ECONOMIC ALTERNATIVES FOR TOBACCO PRODUCERS: THE CASE OF SHEEP FARMING AgEcon
Tzouramani, Irene; Karanikolas, Pavlos; Alexopoulos, George; Sintori, Alexandra; Liontakis, Angelos E..
After the introduction of the new tobacco regime, many regions in Greece, formerly specialized in tobacco cultivation, are now facing serious threats of economic and social decline. Sheep farming is considered by many analysts as a viable alternative to tobacco. This study analyses the financial performance of sheep production and the risk that producers are taking. Through a stochastic efficiency analysis with respect to a function we explore the economic viability of conventional and organic sheep farming; key factors determining the economic outcome of these activities are also investigated. Both organic and conventional sheep farming appear as viable alternatives. The viability of organic farming lies, mainly, in organic payments. Conventional farming...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Organic farming; Dairy sheep; Risk analysis; SERF; Agricultural policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6695
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Eliciting Information on Uncertainty from Heterogeneous Expert Panels: Attributing U.S. Foodborne Pathogen Illness to Food Consumption AgEcon
Hoffmann, Sandra A.; Fischbeck, Paul S.; Krupnick, Alan J.; McWilliams, Michael.
Decision analysts are frequently called on to help inform decision-makers in situations where there is considerable uncertainty. In such situations, expert elicitation of parameter values is frequently used to supplement more conventional research. This paper develops a formal protocol for expert elicitation with large, heterogeneous expert panels. We use formal survey methods to take advantage of variation in individual expert uncertainty and heterogeneity among experts as a means of quantifying and comparing sources of uncertainty about parameters of interest. We illustrate use of this protocol with an expert elicitation on the distribution of U.S. foodborne illness from each of 11 major foodborne pathogens to the consumption of one of 11 categories of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Food safety; Expert elicitation; Risk analysis; Food attribution; Foodborne pathogen; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10444
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Technological and Economic Risk Analysis of laying hen breeding applying simulation AgEcon
Kovacs, Sandor; Ertsey, Imre; Balogh, Peter.
In order to analyse risks and to choose from different decision-making strategies simulation models are often applied in several areas of animal breeding. We developed an improved Monte Carlo model for analysing laying hen breeding combined with Bayes’ statistics. On the basis of data from a company breeding broiler parents, our paper examines the technological and economic risks of breeding a laying-hen stock with a simulation program developed by our team. During modelling we take individual cost elements and the most significant factors (different forage costs, price of sold eggs, unsuitable eggs, installing day-old chicks and old animals) affecting returns into consideration. The results can be presented in tables and graphs for both sexes as well....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Monte Carlo; Risk analysis; Chicken production; Bayessian statistics; Foraging; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7798
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