SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Berck, Peter; Lipow, Jonathan.

VALUING COUNTER-CYCLICAL PAYMENTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCER RISK MANAGEMENT AND PROGRAM ADMINISTRATION

Palavras-chave: Bayesian analysis; Equilibrium (economics); Risk management; Risk and Uncertainty; Industrial Organization.

Ano: 1999

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43912

Plato, Gerald E.; Skully, David W.; Johnsons, D. Demcey.

USDA’s current method for estimating expected counter-cyclical payment rates produces unintentionally biased estimates because it does not consider the variability of marketing year prices. Estimates with positive bias increase the risk of overpayment to producers who accept advance payments. According to statute, producers must reimburse the Government for any overpayments, which can lead to cash-flow problems. A model developed for this analysis improved upon the USDA method of estimating counter-cyclical payment rates by accounting for the variability in market price forecast errors. This enhanced method produced unbiased estimates. Forecasters and producers can also use the model to calculate the probabilities of repayment. Producers can use call...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: 2002 Farm Act; Farm and commodity policy; Counter-cyclical payments; Risk management; Price uncertainty; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7184

Lessons for the Forest Service from State Trust Land Management Experience

Fairfax, Sally.

This paper argues that state trust land management experience is potentially a source of valuable insights and examples for the U.S. Forest Service. The paper sketches historic and current trends in public resource administration to define what constitutes useful new ideas which might aid the agency in its present crisis. In spite of being this nation's oldest approach to public resource management, the state trust lands are an appropriate source of new ideas in an era in which, the paper suggests: (1) the courts are receding as a major source of executive accountability, (2) the legitimacy of federal agencies, particularly those whose authority is rooted in science, is declining, and (3) the institutional framework for public resource management is...

Analyzing Crop Revenue Safety Net Program Alternatives and Impacts on Producers and Program Costs

Palavras-chave: State; Trust principles; Non-delegation; Arbitrary and capricious; Prudence; Portfolio; Risk management; Institutional flexibility; Land Economics/Use; H41; H39; N5; Q23; Q28.

Ano: 1999

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10780

Jansen, Jim A.; Lubben, Bradley D.; Stockton, Matthew C..

This study evaluates the policy effects of alternative program designs for federal revenue-based farm income safety net programs. Eight representative farms across Nebraska are used to stochastically simulate the financial impact of changing the current farm crop revenue-based safety net with a state revenue trigger against potential alternative programs involving guarantees at the district, county, or farm level. Results indicate that decreasing the aggregation of the revenue guarantee increases expected farm-level payments and program costs for the revenue-based safety net.

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Farm bill; Farm programs; Government payments; Representative farms; Risk management; Simulation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q18.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119784

Cost-Benefit Analysis and Regulatory Reform: An Assessment of the Science and the Art

Kopp, Raymond J.; Krupnick, Alan J.; Toman, Michael.

The continuing efforts in the 104th Congress to legislate requirements for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and the revised Office of Management and Budget guidelines for the conduct of such assessments during a regulatory rulemaking process highlight the need for a comprehensive examination of the role that CBA can play in agency decision-making. This paper summarizes the state of knowledge regarding CBA and offers suggestions for improvement in its use, especially in the context of environmental regulations.

A Portrait of Participants in Crop Insurance Programs

Palavras-chave: Cost-benefit; Cost-effectiveness; Risk management; Regulatory reform; Demand and Price Analysis; D6; L5.

Ano: 1997

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10851

Determining Educational Needs: A Focus Group Approach

Nimpagaritse, Fabrice.

Farm Analysis Bulletins (FAB) are undertaken to provide a better understanding of Canadian agriculture at the farm level. Using data from various sources such as Census, Farm Financial Surveys (FFS), Taxfiler, NISA database, etc, FAB's provide information on farm situation as well as highlighting and discussing farm related issues. By using the Farm Financial Surveys (1999 to 2004), this bulletin provides characteristics of farmers participating in crop insurance programs. Charts and tables with a brief accompanying text are used to describe participants in crop insurance. Participation rate in crop insurance has grown slightly from 49% in 1999 to 53% in 2003.Grains and oilseeds farms are more likely to participate in crop insurance programs than other...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Crop insurance programs; Risk management; Risk protection; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Financial Economics.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53099

Eberspacher, Beth; Jose, H. Douglas.

The first step in planning and delivering a successful program is to identify the needs and interests of the target audience. The North Central Risk Management Education Center, which provides grants for educational programs for producers in the 12 north central states in the US, conducted a series of focus groups with producers. The goals of the focus groups were to: 1) determine the impact of funded programs; 2) assess risk management education needs of producers; 3) assess preferred delivery methods; and 4) determine program characteristics that will enhance participation. The participants had an average age of 45 which is about 12 years younger than the average age of all farmers. With 1,861 acres of owned and rented land, they had slightly larger...

The Semivariance-Minimizing Hedge Ratio

Palavras-chave: Focus groups; Risk management; Education needs; Labor; Marketing; Human risk; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24242

Turvey, Calum G.; Nayak, Govindaray.

This study presents a new approach to the optimal hedging decision. In some empirical studies, the standard hedge using the mean-variance hedge ratio provides results which are inconsistent with downside risk management. The new approach taken here relates the optimal hedge ratio to semivariance rather than variance. An algorithm to solve for the minimum semivariance hedge is presented, and applied to hedging Kansas City wheat and Texas steers.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Downside risk; Optimal hedging ratio; Risk management; Semivariance hedge ratio; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30720

Factors Influencing ACRE Program Enrollment

Woolverton, Andrea E.; Edwin, Young.

Authorized by the 2008 Farm Act, the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program is the first revenue-based, income-support program that calculates payments using recent market prices and a producer’s actual plantings. The payments are triggered when a farm’s revenue and State revenue (price multiplied by yield per planted acre) fall below a calculated guarantee for a crop. By contrast, other income-support programs are based on legislated rates and support levels, computed using a farm’s base acres and payment yields. Had the ACRE program been available during crop years 1996-2008, this report shows that farmers would have benefited more from participating in 2002 Farm Act programs than in the hypothetical ACRE program. The report further suggests that,...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Average Revenue Crop Election; ACRE; 2008 Farm Act; Farm bill; Commodity programs; Risk management; Income support; ERS; USDA; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55954

Alternative Insurance Indexes for Drought Risk in Developing Countries

Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Sommer, Rolf.

The paper compares the risk coping potential of insurances that are based on indices derived from weather (rainfall and temperature) data as well as from crop model and remote sensing analyses. Corresponding indices were computed for the case of wheat production in the Aleppo region of northern Syria, representative for agricultural production systems in many developing countries. The results demonstrate that weather derivatives such as the rainfall sum index (RSI) and the rainfall deficit index (RDI) have a very good potential for coping with risk in semiarid areas. Crop simulation model index (CSI) on the other hand could serve as an alternative to RSI and RDI when historical farm yield data is not available or not reliable. In such cases we simulated...

AN ARCH ANALYSIS OF THE HEDGING PERFORMANCE OF IMMINENTLY MATURING FUTURES CONTRACTS

Palavras-chave: Risk management; Index insurance; Alternative index; CropSyst; NDVI; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114256

Dahlgran, Roger A..

Hedge ratio estimation studies avoid estimating hedge ratios for imminently maturing futures contracts because of the maturity effect whereby futures price volatility increases as price uncertainty is resolved at contract expiration. This study first points out that a futures-price volatility increase is neither necessary nor sufficient for reduced hedging effectiveness because hedging effectiveness depends on the cash-futures price correlation. To analyze the hedging performance of imminently maturing futures contracts risk is defined as the conditional variance of profit outcomes. The conditional mean is modeled as Brownian motion. This model was fit to cash and futures price data for corn, cotton, feeder cattle, soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean...

Management decisions on commercial sugarcane farms in KwaZulu-Natal: a focus on choice bracketing behaviour for risk management

Palavras-chave: Maturity effect; Hedging effectiveness; Risk management; Marketing.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18982

MacNicol, R.; Ortmann, Gerald F.; Ferrer, Stuart R.D..

The sugar industry is an important contributor to the South African (SA) economy, with average annual production estimated at 2.5 million tons of sugar. This study aims to quantify actual use of management instruments by a sample of commercial sugarcane farmers in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) that are commonly associated with risk management, and uses factor analysis to investigate the extent to which these farmers bracket their management decisions. Data were obtained in 2006 via personal interviews of a stratified random sample of 76 large-scale sugarcane farmers in two separate mill-supply areas of KZN. Respondents were asked questions regarding risk-related management strategies, including diversification of on-farm enterprises, investments and management time....

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Commercial sugarcane farms; KwaZulu-Natal; Choice bracketing behaviour; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5971

Agricultural Risk Management - Experiences from an Action Research Approach

Lund, Mogens; Oksen, Arne; Larsen, Torben Ulf; Andersen, Henning.

A new model for risk management in agriculture is described in the paper. The risk model is constructed as a context dependent process, which includes four main phases. The model is aimed at agricultural advisors, who wish to facilitate and disseminate risk management to farmers. It is developed and tested by an action research approach in an attempt to make risk management more applicable on family farms. Our obtained experiences indicate that farmers don't apply probabilistic thinking and other concepts according to formal decision theory.

Low-cost options for reducing consumer health risks from farm to fork where crops are irrigated with polluted water in West Africa.

Palavras-chave: Risk management; Consulting; Action research; Farm families; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24291

Amoah, Philip; Keraita, Bernard; Akple, Maxwell; Drechsel, Pay; Abaidoo, Robert Clement; Konradsen, Flemming.

To identify interventions which reduce health risks of consumers where highly polluted irrigation water is used to irrigate vegetables in West Africa, scientists worked over 5 years with farmers, market traders and street food vendors in Ghana. The most promising low-cost interventions with high adoption potential were analyzed for their ability to reduce common levels of pathogens (counts of fecal coliforms and helminth eggs). The analysis showed the combination potential of various interventions, especially on-farm and during vegetable washing in line with the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. The tested market-based interventions were important to prevent new or additional contamination.

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Urban agriculture; Consumers; Public health; Health hazards; Risk management; Vegetable growing; Wastewater irrigation; Irrigation methods; Irrigation practices; Wastewater treatment; Filtration; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Health Economics and Policy; Production Economics.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108673

Controlling Ozone and Fine Particulates: Cost Benefit Analysis with Meteorological Variability

Shih, Jhih-Shyang; Bergin, Michelle S.; Krupnick, Alan J.; Russell, Armistead G..

In this paper, we develop an integrated cost-benefit analysis framework for ozone and fine particulate control, accounting for variability and uncertainty. The framework includes air quality simulation, sensitivity analysis, stochastic multi-objective air quality management, and stochastic cost-benefit analysis. This paper has two major contributions. The first is the development of stochastic source-receptor (S-R) coefficient matrices for ozone and fine particulate matter using an advanced air quality simulation model (URM-1ATM) and an efficient sensitivity algorithm (DDM-3D). The second is a demonstration of this framework for alternative ozone and PM2.5 reduction policies. Alternative objectives of the stochastic air quality management model include...

Perceived Market Risks and Strategic Risk Management of Food Manufactures: Empirical Results from the German Brewing Industry

Palavras-chave: Ambient air; Ozone; Particulate matter; Risk management; Public policy; Cost-benefit analysis; Variability and uncertainty; Stochastic simulation; Stochastic multi-objective programming; Decision-making; National Ambient Air Quality Standards; Environmental Economics and Policy; C6; Q2; Q25; Q28.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10735

Theuvsen, Ludwig; Niederhut-Bollmann, Christoph.

The food industry is currently facing huge structural changes, such as growing concentration ratios and degrees of internationalization and as well as the reorganizations of food supply chains. Such developments do not only contribute to growing market risks but also require strategic reorientations on the part of food manufacturers. So far, risk management and strategic planning have been two fairly separated theoretical strands. In this paper we blend both schools of thought and analyze food manufacturers' perceived market risks and strategic risk management of food manufacturers. Empirical Our data stem from large-scale empirical research in the German brewing industry.

Risk Management and the Role of Off-farm Income

Palavras-chave: Brewing industry; Market risks; Risk management; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7729

Freshwater, David; Jette-Nantel, Simon.

The majority of farm households in OECD countries earn more off-farm income than farm income, even including government payments. While this is a well recognized fact its implications for risk management have not been well recognized. Current efforts to reform farm support have focused on the variability of farm household income and largely ignored the variability of total farm household income. Since it is common for farm households to allocate labor and capital across both farm and non-farm opportunities, it is also likely that their attitude to risk in farming can best be understood by seeing farm risk and return in a household portfolio of income. This approach immediately leads to farm risk being less problematic the more diversified the portfolio...

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Off-farm income; Risk management; Agricultural policy; Farm household; Farm income; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120184

Factors Affecting Farmers’ Utilization of Agricultural Risk Management Tools: The Case of Crop Insurance, Forward Contracting, and Spreading Sales

Velandia, Margarita M.; Rejesus, Roderick M.; Knight, Thomas O.; Sherrick, Bruce J..

Factors affecting the adoption of crop insurance, forward contracting, and spreading sales are analyzed using multivariate and multinomial probit approaches that account for simultaneous adoption and/or correlation among the three risk management adoption decisions. Our empirical results suggest that the decision to adopt crop insurance, forward contracting, and/or spreading sales are correlated. Richer insights can be drawn from our multivariate and multinomial probit analysis than from separate, single-equation probit estimation that assumes independence of adoption decisions. Some factors significantly affecting the adoption of the risk management tools analyzed are proportion of owned acres, off-farm income, education, age, and level of business risks.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Adoption decisions; Crop insurance; Forward contracting; Multinomial probit; Multivariate probit; Risk management; Spreading sales; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; G22; Q12; Q18.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48751

The Value of Plant Disease Early-Warning Systems: A Case Study of USDA's Soybean Rust Coordinated Framework

Roberts, Michael J.; Schimmelpfennig, David E.; Ashley, Elizabeth; Livingston, Michael J.; Ash, Mark S.; Vasavada, Utpal.

Early-warning systems for plant diseases are valuable when the systems provide timely forecasts that farmers can use to inform their pest management decisions. To evaluate the value of the systems, this study examines, as a case study, USDA’s coordinated framework for soybean rust surveillance, reporting, prediction, and management, which was developed before the 2005 growing season. The framework’s linchpin is a website that provides real-time, county-level information on the spread of the disease. The study assesses the value of the information tool to farmers and factors that influence that value. The information’s value depends most heavily on farmers’ perceptions of the forecast’s accuracy. The study finds that the framework’s information is valuable...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Soybean rust; Farmers’ perceptions; Forecast accuracy; Updating beliefs; Value of information; Real-time disease location; Plant disease management; Pest management; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7208

AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF ENSO (EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) ON GLOBAL CROP YIELDS

Ferris, John N..

Forecasts of global crop yields prior to planting have generally been single values, based entirely on past trends. Regression analysis testing a combination of data from ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) and ARMA models suggests that yield forecasting errors can be reduced, generating more normal distributions of these errors. Keywords: El Niño, ENSO, forecasting crop yields, long range weather forecasting, agricultural modeling, food security, risk management