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| Registros recuperados: 221 | |
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| Hagerman, Shannon M; Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia; University of Washington, Climate Impacts Group; hshannon@interchange.ubc.ca; Dowlatabadi, Hadi; University of British Columbia; Resources for the Future; Carnegie Mellon University; hadi.d@ubc.ca; Satterfield, Terre; University of British Columbia; satterfd@interchange.ubc.ca. |
| Human and ecological elements of resource management systems co-adapt over time. In this paper, we examine the drivers of change in forest management policy in British Columbia since 1850. We asked: How has a set of system attributes changed over time, and what drivers contributed to change when it occurred? We simultaneously examined a set of three propositions relating to drivers and dynamics of policy change. We find that factors contributing to the level of impacts, like technology, changed substantially over time and had dramatic impacts. In partial contrast, the institutions used to exercise control (patterns of agency and governance) remained the same until relatively recently. Other system attributes remained unchanged (e.g., the concept of... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis |
Palavras-chave: British Columbia; Change; Drivers; Forest management; Global change; Historical analysis; Science and policy; Social– Ecological system; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2010 |
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| Peterson, Garry; McGill University; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca; De Leo, Giulio A; Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell' Ambiente; deleo@dsa.unipr.it; Hellmann, Jessica J; Stanford University; jessicah@leland.stanford.edu; Janssen, Marco A; Indiana University; maajanss@indiana.edu; Kinzig, Ann; Arizona State University; Ann.Kinzig@asu.edu; Malcolm, Jay R; University of Toronto; jay.malcolm@utoronto.ca; O'Brien, Karen L; -; kobrien@online.no; Pope, Shealagh E; Environment Canada; shealagh.pope@ec.gc.ca; Rothman, Dale S; Columbia University; drothman@bio2.edu; Shevliakova, Elena; Carnegie Mellon University; lenish@cmu.edu; Tinch, Robert R.T.; York University, UK; rrtt100@york.ac.uk. |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Climate change; Global change; Uncertainty; Models. |
| Ano: 1997 |
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| Armitage, Derek; University of Waterloo; derek.armitage@uwaterloo.ca; Charles, Anthony T; Saint Mary's University; Tony.Charles@SMU.CA; Johnson, Derek; University of Manitoba; derek_johnson@umanitoba.ca; Allison, Edward H; The WorldFish Center and the University of East Anglia; e.allison@cgiar.org. |
| Innovative combinations of social and ecological theory are required to deal with complexity and change in human-ecological systems. We examined the interplay and complementarities that emerge by linking resilience and social well-being approaches. First, we reflected on the limitations of applying ecological resilience concepts to social systems from the perspective of social theory, and particularly, the concept of well-being. Second, we examined the interplay of resilience and well-being concepts in fostering a social-ecological perspective that promises more appropriate management and policy actions. We examined five key points of interplay: (1) the limits of optimization thinking (e.g., maximum sustainable yield), (2) the role of human agency and... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis |
Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Agency; Governance; Integration; Interdisciplinarity; Policy; Sustainability; Thresholds; Transdisciplinarity; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2012 |
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| Schill, Caroline; The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; caroline.schill@beijer.kva.se; Lindahl, Therese; The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; therese.lindahl@beijer.kva.se. |
| Ecosystems can undergo regime shifts that potentially lead to a substantial decrease in the availability of provisioning ecosystem services. Recent research suggests that the frequency and intensity of regime shifts increase with growing anthropogenic pressure, so understanding the underlying social-ecological dynamics is crucial, particularly in contexts where livelihoods depend heavily on local ecosystem services. In such settings, ecosystem services are often derived from common-pool resources. The limited capacity to predict regime shifts is a major challenge for common-pool resource management, as well as for systematic empirical analysis of individual and group behavior, because of the need for extensive preshift and postshift data. Unsurprisingly,... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Common-pool resources; Cooperation; Ecological dynamics; Laboratory experiments; Regime shifts; Risk; Social-ecological systems; Thresholds; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2015 |
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| Biggs, Reinette (Oonsie); Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden; Stellenbosch Institute for Advanced Study (STIAS), Wallenberg Research Centre at Stellenbosch University, South Africa; Centre for Studies in Complexity, Stellenbosch University, South Africa; oonsie@sun.ac.za; Rhode, Clint; Department of Genetics, Stellenbosch University, South Africa; clintr@sun.ac.za; Archibald, Sally; Natural Resources and the Environment, CSIR, South Africa; Centre for African Ecology, Animal Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa ; sarchibald@csir.co.za; Kunene, Lucky Makhosini; Department of Sociology, University of Fort Hare, East London, South Africa; Africa Institute of South Africa, Human Sciences Research Council, South Africa; lkunene@ufh.ac.za; Mutanga, Shingirirai S.; Africa Institute of South Africa, Human Sciences Research Council, South Africa; Smutanga@ai.org.za; Nkuna, Nghamula; Public Administration, University of Limpopo, South Africa; nghamula.nkuna@ul.ac.za; Ocholla, Peter Omondi; Department of Earth Sciences, Stellenbosch University, South Africa; Department of Hydrology, University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa, South Africa; peterocholla@gmail.com; Phadima, Lehlohonolo Joe; Scientific Services Division, Ezemvelo KwaZulu-Natal Wildlife, South Africa ; phadimal@kznwildlife.com. |
| Improving our ability to manage complex, rapidly changing social-ecological systems is one of the defining challenges of the 21st century. This is particularly crucial if large-scale poverty alleviation is to be secured without undermining the capacity of the environment to support future generations. To address this challenge, strategies that enable judicious management of social-ecological systems in the face of substantive uncertainty are needed. Several such strategies are emerging from the developing body of work on complexity and resilience. We identify and discuss four strategies, providing practical examples of how each strategy has been applied in innovative ways to manage turbulent social-ecological change in South Africa and the broader region:... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis |
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Complexity; Resilience; Social-ecological systems southern Africa; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2015 |
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| Wagner, Sven; Chair of Silviculture, TU-Dresden; wagner@forst.tu-dresden.de; Nocentini, Susanna; Department of Agricultural, Food and Forestry Systems, University of Florence; susanna.nocentini@unifi.it; Huth, Franka; Chair of Silviculture, TU-Dresden; mario@forst.tu-dresden.de; Hoogstra-Klein, Marjanke; Forest and Nature Conservation Policy Group, Wageningen University; Marjanke.Hoogstra@wur.nl. |
| The issue of rapid change in environmental conditions under which ecosystem processes and human interventions will take place in the future is relatively new to forestry, whereas the provision of ecosystem services, e.g., timber or fresh water, is at the very heart of the original concept of forest management. Forest managers have developed ambitious deterministic approaches to provide the services demanded, and thus the use of deterministic approaches for adapting to climate change seem to be a logical continuation. However, as uncertainty about the intensity of climate change is high, forest managers need to answer this uncertainty conceptually. One may envision an indeterministic approach to cope with this uncertainty; but how the services will be... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Ecological resilience; Ecosystem services; Forest management strategies; Flexibility; Forest structure; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2014 |
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| Devisscher, Tahia; Environmental Change Institute‬, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford; Stockholm Environment Institute; tahia.devisscher@ouce.ox.ac.uk; Boyd, Emily; Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Reading; Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies; emily.boyd@reading.ac.uk; Malhi, Yadvinder; Environmental Change Institute‬, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford; yadvinder.malhi@ouce.ox.ac.uk. |
| Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Climate change; Complexity; Scenario; Social-ecological system; Uncertainty; Wildfire risk. |
| Ano: 2016 |
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| Werners, Saskia Elisabeth; Wageningen UR; werners@mungo.nl; van Slobbe, Erik; Wageningen UR; Erik.vanSlobbe@wur.nl; Oost, Albert; Deltares; Albert.Oost@deltares.nl; Pfenninger, Stefan; Imperial College London; s.pfenninger12@imperial.ac.uk; Trombi, Giacomo; Department of Agri-Food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence; giacomo.trombi@unifi.it; Bindi, Marco; Department of Agri-Food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence; marco.bindi@unifi.it; Moriondo, Marco; CNR-IBIMET; marco.moriondo@unifi.it. |
| Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed article |
Palavras-chave: Adaptation turning points; Climate change; Governance; Tools; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2015 |
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| Cundill, Georgina N. R.; Rhodes University; gcundill@rides.cl; Fabricius, Christo; Rhodes University; c.fabricius@ru.ac.za; Marti, Neus; Autonomous University; neus@amauta.rcp.net.pe. |
| Complex systems are shaped by cross-scale interactions, nonlinear feedbacks, and uncertainty, among other factors. Transdisciplinary approaches that combine participatory and conventional methods and democratize knowledge to enable diverse inputs, including those from local, informal experts, are essential tools in understanding such systems. The metaphor of a “bridge” to overcome the divide between different disciplines and knowledge systems is often used to advocate for more inclusive approaches. However, there is a shortage of information and consensus on the process, methodologies, and techniques that are appropriate to achieve this. This paper compares two case studies from Peru and South Africa in which community-level assessments... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis |
Palavras-chave: Ecological assessment; Community-based assessment; Complexity; Scale; Epistemology; Methodology; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; Complex systems; Uncertainty; Peru; South Africa; Case studies; Transdisciplinary research. |
| Ano: 2005 |
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| Lotze, Heike K.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea; Eddy, Tyler D.; Cheung, William W. L.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Barange, Manuel; Barrier, Nicolas; Bianchi, Daniele; Blanchard, Julia L; Bopp, Laurent; Buchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine M.; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda C.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Fernandes, Jose A.; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-jai; Silva, Tiago A. M.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Stock, Charles A.; Verley, Philippe; Volkholz, Jan; Walker, Nicola D.; Worm, Boris. |
| While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (+/- 4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (+/- 11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 degrees C of warming. Projected biomass... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Climate change impacts; Marine food webs; Global ecosystem modeling; Model intercomparison; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00659/77125/78507.pdf |
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| Registros recuperados: 221 | |
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