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| Registros recuperados: 221 | |
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| Rochet, Marie-joelle; Rice, Jake C.. |
| Simulation-based management strategy evaluations are increasingly developed and used for science advice in support of fisheries management, along with risk evaluation and decision analysis. These methods tackle the problem of uncertainty in fisheries systems and data by modelling uncertainty in two ways. For quantities that are difficult to measure accurately or are inherently variable, variables are replaced by probability distributions, and system dynamics are simulated by Monte Carlo simulations, drawing numbers from these distributions. For processes that are not fully understood, arrays of model formulations that might underlie the observed patterns are developed, each is assumed successively, and the results of the corresponding arrays of model... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Risk estimates; Monte Carlo simulation; Management strategy evaluation. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2009/publication-6361.pdf |
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| Beaumont, Nicola J; Mongruel, Remi; Hooper, Tara. |
| An Ecosystem Service Approach (ESA) is increasingly advocated for use in both environmental management and academic applications. However, despite extensive conceptual development, there are still very few examples of the effective use of the ESA for operational management. This contribution reports on the field application of the ESA at six marine and coastal case study sites. Each case study demonstrates a variation on an interdisciplinary approach to translate complex natural science data into ecosystem service terminology, and then explores the usefulness of this information in a management context. From these experiences 6 key recommendations are made to aid the future application of the ESA: (1) Invest resources in collective planning of ESA; (2)... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Ecosystem services; Management; Coastal; Valuation; Uncertainty; Recommendation. |
| Ano: 2018 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00420/53130/54088.pdf |
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| Kimoto, A; Walter, Jf; Sharma, R; Rouyer, Tristan. |
| ICCAT BFTWG completed the stock assessment using multiple stock assessment methods in 2017, and they are going to proceed with the MSE process: development of MP in 2018. It is well recognized that the performance results of MPs often depend on the design of the OM and its conditioning that capture the range of potential population dynamics. It is therefore critical to consider them carefully before moving to the development of MP, but this has been a monumental task given the complexity of ABFT. The ICCAT GBYP Core modelling group has developed the OM by incorporating the mixing between two stocks, and the trial specifications. However, the 2017 stock assessment raised a number of issues that may require further consideration for the OMs, particularly... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Bluefin tuna; Conditioning; Operating model; Uncertainty; Management procedure; MSE. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00484/59607/62624.pdf |
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| Rockmann, Christine; Ulrich, Clara; Dreyer, Marion; Bell, Ewen; Borodzicz, Edward; Haapasaari, Paivi; Hauge, Kjellrun Hiis; Howell, Daniel; Mantyniemi, Samu; Miller, David; Tserpes, George; Pastoors, Martin. |
| How can uncertain fisheries science be linked with good governance processes, thereby increasing fisheries management legitimacy and effectiveness? Reducing the uncertainties around scientific models has long been perceived as the cure of the fisheries management problem. There is however increasing recognition that uncertainty in the numbers will remain. A lack of transparency with respect to these uncertainties can damage the credibility of science. The EU Commission's proposal for a reformed Common Fisheries Policy calls for more self-management for the fishing industry by increasing fishers' involvement in the planning and execution of policies and boosting the role of fishers' organisations. One way of higher transparency and improved participation is... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Participatory modelling; Fisheries management; Uncertainty; Post-normal science; Extended peer review; Problem framing. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00589/70104/68121.pdf |
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| Maltby, Katherine M.; Rutterford, Louise A.; Tinker, Jonathan; Genner, Martin J.; Simpson, Stephen D.; Punt, Andre. |
| Projecting the future effects of climate change on marine fished populations can help prepare the fishing industry and management systems for resulting ecological, social and economic changes. Generating projections using multiple climate scenarios can provide valuable insights for fisheries stakeholders regarding uncertainty arising from future climate data. Using a range of climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, we modelled abundance of eight commercially important bottom dwelling fish species across the Celtic Sea, English Channel and southern North Sea through the 21st century. This region spans a faunal boundary between cooler northern waters and warmer southern waters,... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Celtic Sea; Climate change; English Channel; Fish; Fisheries; North Sea; Regional projections; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2020 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00643/75490/76341.pdf |
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| Lehuta, Sigrid; Petitgas, Pierre; Mahevas, Stephanie; Huret, Martin; Vermard, Youen; Uriarte, Andres; Record, Nicholas R.. |
| Assessing the validity of a model is essential for its credibility especially when the model is used as decision making tool. Complex dynamic fishery models are recommended to investigate the functioning of fisheries and to assess the impact of management strategies, particularly spatial fishing regulations. However, their use is limited due to the difficulty and computational cost of parameterizing and gaining confidence, particularly for parameter rich models. These difficulties are compounded by uncertainty regarding parameter values, many of which are often taken from literature or estimated indirectly. Here we propose a methodology to improve confidence and understanding in the model, easily transferable to any complex model. The approach combines... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Bay of Biscay anchovy; Dynamic fishery model; Model selection; Uncertainty; Validation. |
| Ano: 2013 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00148/25965/24150.pdf |
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| Dabrin, A.; Ghestem, J. -p.; Uher, E.; Gonzalez, Jean-louis; Allan, I. J.; Schintu, M.; Montero, N.; Balaam, J.; Peinerud, E.; Miege, C.; Coquery, M.. |
| Passive sampling devices (PS) are widely used for pollutant monitoring in water, but estimation of measurement uncertainties by PS has seldom been undertaken. The aim of this work was to identify key parameters governing PS measurements of metals and their dispersion. We report the results of an in situ intercomparison exercise on diffusive gradient in thin films (DGT) in surface waters. Interlaboratory uncertainties of time-weighted average (TWA) concentrations were satisfactory (from 28% to 112%) given the number of participating laboratories (10) and ultra-trace metal concentrations involved. Data dispersion of TWA concentrations was mainly explained by uncertainties generated during DGT handling and analytical procedure steps. We highlight that DGT... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: DGT; Uncertainty; Blank; Continental waters; Coastal waters. |
| Ano: 2016 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00294/40560/39614.pdf |
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| Kell, Laurence T.; Mosqueira, I; Grosjean, P; Fromentin, Jean-marc; Garcia, D; Hillary, R; Jardim, E; Mardle, S; Pastoors, M.a; Poos, J.j.; Scott, F; Scott, R. |
| The FLR framework (Fisheries Library for R) is a development effort directed towards the evaluation of fisheries management strategies. The overall goal is to develop a common framework to facilitate collaboration within and across disciplines (e.g. biological, ecological, statistical, mathematical, economic, and social) and, in particular, to ensure that new modelling methods and software are more easily validated and evaluated, as well as becoming widely available once developed. Specifically, the framework details how to implement and link a variety of fishery, biological, and economic software packages so that alternative management strategies and procedures can be evaluated for their robustness to uncertainty before implementation. The design of the... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Stock assessment; Software; Simulation framework; Precautionary approach; Open source; Management strategy evaluation; Bio economic modelling. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2007/publication-2732.pdf |
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| Gourguet, Sophie; Thebaud, Olivier; Dichmont, C.; Jennings, S.; Little, L. R.; Pascoe, S.; Deng, R. A.; Doyen, L.. |
| Balancing bio-economic risks and high profit expectations is often a major concern in fisheries management. We examine this trade-off in the context of the Australian Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF). The fishery derives its revenue from different prawn species with different dynamics and recruitment processes. A multi-species bio-economic and stochastic model is used to examine the trade-offs between mean profitability of the fishery and its variance, under a range of economic scenarios, fishing capacities and distributions of fishing effort across the various sub-fisheries that comprise the NPF. Simulation results show that the current fishing strategy diversifying catch across sub-components of the fishery entails a compromise between expected performance... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Bio-economic modelling; Uncertainty; Risk-performance trade-offs; Fishing strategy; Northern Prawn Fishery. |
| Ano: 2014 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00216/32775/31320.pdf |
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| Heino, Mikko; Baulier, Loic; Boukal, David S.; Ernande, Bruno; Johnston, Fiona D.; Mollet, Fabian M.; Pardoe, Heidi; Therkildsen, Nina O.; Uusi-heikkila, Silva; Vainikka, Anssi; Arlinghaus, Robert; Dankel, Dorothy J.; Dunlop, Erin S.; Eikeset, Anne Maria; Enberg, Katja; Engelhard, Georg; Jorgensen, Christian; Laugen, Ane; Matsumura, Shuichi; Nussle, Sebastien; Urbach, Davnah; Whitlock, Rebecca; Rijnsdorp, Adriaan D.; Dieckmann, Ulf. |
| Biological reference points are important tools for fisheries management. Reference points are not static, butmay change when a population's environment or the population itself changes. Fisheries-induced evolution is one mechanism that can alter population characteristics, leading to "shifting" reference points by modifying the underlying biological processes or by changing the perception of a fishery system. The former causes changes in "true" reference points, whereas the latter is caused by changes in the yardsticks used to quantify a system's status. Unaccounted shifts of either kind imply that reference points gradually lose their intended meaning. This can lead to increased precaution, which is safe, but potentially costly. Shifts can also occur in... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Biological reference points; Fisheries-induced evolution; Fisheries management; Population dynamics; Precautionary approach; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2013 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00151/26228/24302.pdf |
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| Drouineau, Hilaire; Lobry, Jeremy; Bez, Nicolas; Travers-trolet, Morgane; Vermard, Youen; Gascuel, Didier. |
| In this introductory paper we highlight key questions that were discussed during the symposium on “Status, functioning and shifts in marine ecosystems” organized by the Association Française d’Halieutique (French Association for Fisheries Sciences, Montpellier, France, July 2015). This symposium illustrated that fisheries science is now working at multiple scales and on all dimensions of socio-ecosystems (ecological, political, sociological, and economic), with a great diversity of approaches and taking into account different levels of complexity while acknowledging diverse sources of uncertainty. We argue that we should go one step further and call for a protean fisheries science to address the deteriorated states of aquatic ecosystems caused by... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: EAFM; Fisheries management; Fisheries science; Marine resources; Models; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2016 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00359/46990/46921.pdf |
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| Planque, Benjamin; Mullon, Christian. |
| Nearly 30 years ago, emerged the concept of deterministic chaos. With it came sensitivity to initial conditions, nonlinearities, and strange attractors. This constituted a paradigm shift that profoundly altered how numerical modellers approached dynamic systems. It also provided an opportunity to resolve a situation of mutual misunderstanding between scientists and non-scientists about uncertainties and predictability in natural systems. Our proposition is that this issue can be addressed in an original way which involves modelling based on the principles of chance and necessity (CaN). We outline the conceptual and mathematical principles of CaN models and present an application of the model to the Barents Sea food-web. Because CaN models rely on concepts... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Chaos theory; Constraints; Nonlinear systems; Participatory modelling; Uncertainty; Viability theory. |
| Ano: 2020 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00585/69686/67759.pdf |
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| Planque, Benjamin; Mullon, Christian; Arneberg, Per; Eide, Arne; Fromentin, Jean-marc; Heymans, Johanna Jacomina; Hoel, Alf Håkon; Niiranen, Susa; Ottersen, Geir; Sandø, Anne Britt; Sommerkorn, Martin; Thébaud, Olivier; Thorvik, Thorbjørn. |
| Anticipating future changes in marine social‐ecological systems (MSES) several decades into the future is essential in the context of accelerating global change. This is challenging in situations where actors do not share common understandings, practices, or visions about the future. We introduce a dedicated scenario method for the development of MSES scenarios in a participatory context. The objective is to allow different actors to jointly develop scenarios which contain their multiple visions of the future. The method starts from four perspectives: “fisheries management,” “ecosystem,” “ocean climate,” and “global context and governance” for which current status and recent trends are summarized. Contrasted scenarios about possible futures are elaborated... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Barents Sea; Future studies; Multiple perspectives; Participatory fisheries management; Storylines; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00485/59621/62647.pdf |
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| Gourguet, Sophie; Thebaud, Olivier; Jennings, Sarah; Little, L. Richard; Dichmont, Catherine M.; Pascoe, Sean; Deng, Roy A.; Doyen, Luc. |
| Fisheries management must address multiple, often conflicting objectives in a highly uncertain context. In particular, while the bio-economic performance of trawl fisheries is subject to high levels of biological and economic uncertainty, the impact of trawling on broader biodiversity is also a major concern for their management. The purpose of this study is to propose an analytical framework to formally assess the trade-offs associated with balancing biological, economic and non-target species conservation objectives. We use the Australian Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), which is one of the most valuable federally managed commercial fisheries in Australia, as a case study. We develop a stochastic co-viability assessment of the fishery under multiple... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Bio-economic modeling; Co-viability cost; Conflicting management objectives; Trawling impacts; Uncertainty; Northern prawn fishery. |
| Ano: 2016 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00300/41073/40295.pdf |
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| Woolf, D.k.; Shutler, J.d.; Goddijn‐murphy, L.; Watson, A.j.; Chapron, Bertrand; Nightingale, P.d.; Donlon, C.j.; Piskozub, J.; Yelland, M.j.; Ashton, Ian; Holding, T.; Schuster, U.; Girard-ardhuin, Fanny; Grouazel, Antoine; Piolle, Jean-francois; Warren, M.; Wrobel‐niedzwiecka, I.; Land, P.e.; Torres, R.; Prytherch, J.; Moat, B.; Hanafin, J.; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Paul, Frederic. |
| The contemporary air‐sea flux of CO2 is investigated by the use of an air‐sea flux equation, with particular attention to the uncertainties in global values and their origin with respect to that equation. In particular, uncertainties deriving from the transfer velocity and from sparse upper ocean sampling are investigated. Eight formulations of air‐sea gas transfer velocity are used to evaluate the combined standard uncertainty resulting from several sources of error. Depending on expert opinion, a standard uncertainty in transfer velocity of either ~5% or ~10% can be argued and that will contribute a proportional error in air‐sea flux. The limited sampling of upper ocean fCO2 is readily apparent in the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) databases. The effect... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Carbon dioxide; Air-sea flux; Uncertainty; Transfer velocity; Sampling. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00513/62450/66754.pdf |
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| Roucan-Kane, Maud; Boehlje, Michael. |
| This teaching note accompanies the case study titled “Strategic Decision Making under Uncertainty: Innovation and New Product Introduction during Volatile Times” published under the reference: Boehlje, M. And M. Roucan-Kane, ”Strategic Decision Making under Uncertainty: Innovation and New Product Introduction during Volatile Times”, International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, 12 (4), 2009. This case study outlines the strategic, marketing, and organizational issues facing the farm machinery and equipment division of Deere and Company as it is considering the development of products in the information domain, which encompasses many opportunities of disruptive innovations to market to new or underserved customers. While these disruptive... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Teaching note; Uncertainty; Innovation; Real options; Portfolio; Agribusiness; D81. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54372 |
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| Antoniou, Fabio; Hatzipanayotou, Panos; Koundouri, Phoebe. |
| We construct a strategic trade model of an international duopoly, whereby production by exporting firms generates a local pollutant. Governments use environmental policies, i.e., an emissions standard or a tax, to control pollution and for rent shifting purposes. Contrary to their firm, however, governments are unable to perfectly foresee the actual level of demand, the cost of abatement and the damage caused from pollution. Under these modes of uncertainty we derive sufficient conditions under which the governments optimally choose an emissions tax over an emissions standard. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Strategic Environmental Policy; Pollution; Choice of Policy Instrument; Uncertainty; Environmental Economics and Policy; F12; F18; Q58. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59375 |
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| Registros recuperados: 221 | |
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