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Revenue volatility faced by Australian wheat farmers AgEcon
Kingwell, Ross S..
This paper uses variance decomposition modelling to explore how wheat revenue volatility in Australia has changed spatially and temporally. The components of revenue variance are the variances and covariances of wheat prices, the area of wheat harvested and the yield of wheat. The key finding is that the volatility of wheat revenue (detrended) has more than doubled in every main wheat-growing State in Australia over the last 15 years or so Changes in wheat areas are mostly a minor source of revenue variance. The principal cause of volatility is yield changes with price changes increasing slightly in absolute importance when compared to their adjacent previous period. Greater downside yield risk is often the principal cause of the increased yield variance....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Wheat production; Variance decomposition; Wheat farming; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100572
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Explaining the Changing Institutional Organisation of Dutch Farms: The Role of Farmer's Attitude, Advisory Network and Structural Factors AgEcon
Jongeneel, Roelof A.; Slangen, Louis H.G..
Although still the family farm is the dominant farm type there are changes in the legal mode of organization. Applying the new institutional economics and economic organisation theory the different organisation modes are explained, mainly in terms of control and income rights. Important factors are (limited) liability, risk-bearing costs, transaction costs, and residual control and income rights. This is subsequently applied to Dutch agriculture, taking into account its special characteristics. In an empirical follow-up, based on a sample of all the farmers in the Netherlands, the farmers attitudes and the farm advisory network are analysed. Finally, farm types are explained using bivariate logit analysis, taking into account attitudinal, advisory-network...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Farm organization; Ownership and management; Liability; Risk; Residual control and income rights; Attitudes; Advisory network; Industrial Organization.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24441
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Trade Agreements: The Important Role of Transparency AgEcon
Kerr, William A..
International trade can be inhibited in two ways; through the use of mechanisms that directly alter the flow of goods and poor transparency in the rules of trade. The former includes tariffs and other border measures, subsidies and non-tariff barriers. The effect on trade flows resulting from issues of transparency is indirect. When the rules of trade are unclear for firms considering investing in trade related activities, the risks associated with those investments increase and investment is inhibited. If there is less investment in trade related activities, trade flows will be reduced. Poor transparency exists in contingent protection measures such as anti-dumping – currently on the agenda of the Rules negotiations at the WTO and – customs and related...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Investment; Liberalization; Risk; Transparency; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6322
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GLOBALIZATION, CROPPING CHOICES, AND PROFITABILITY IN AMERICAN AGRICULTURE AgEcon
Blank, Steven C..
The paper discusses the linkages between the "globalization" of agricultural markets over recent decades and the decisions being made by individual farmers and ranchers in the United States. It is noted that technological advances lead to globalization of agricultural commodity markets and profit pressures. The continuing profit squeeze in agricultural production is having a significant effect on the cropping choices of America's farmers. When possible, acreage is being shifted out of low-revenue-generating crops and into higher-revenue-generating crops. This shift makes crop portfolios more risky over time, thus encouraging farmers to consider diversifying out of agriculture.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cropping choices; Globalization; Profit; Risk; Safety-first; Agricultural Finance; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15013
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A Risk Analysis of Carbon Sequestration in Claypan Soil with Conservation Tillage Systems and Nitrogen Fertilizers for Grain Sorghum and Soybean AgEcon
Williams, Jeffery R.; Pendell, Dustin L.; Sweeney, Daniel; Rice, Charles W.; Nelson, Richard G..
Replaced with revised version of paper 02/15/06.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Carbon sequestration; Carbon credits; Nitrogen; Risk; Tillage; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35327
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Can Risk Reducing Policies Reduce Farmer's Risk and Improve Their Welfare? AgEcon
Anton, Jesus; Giner, Celine.
This paper develops an analytical model able to represent the decisions of an individual risk averse farmer facing variability in both prices and yields. A comprehensive set of stylised risk reducing policy measures is represented. A calibration of the model is used to run Monte-Carlo simulations and to obtain optimal responses. The main focus is the interaction between policy measures and market strategies in terms of impacts on production, welfare and risk. Risk reducing strategies that cover different sources of risk, such as price and yield variability, may be complementary for the farmers. Counter-cyclical area payments create incentives to bring land into production and their capacity to reduce farming risk is mitigated by the potential crowding out...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Welfare; Policy; Insurance; Counter-cyclical; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24578
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Risk, Information, and Trust in the Food Chain: Factors Explaining Consumer Willingness to Pay AgEcon
Latvala, Terhi.
This paper analysed factors contributing to consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for increased quality information. The empirical scope of the study was restricted to beef, because the beef labelling system enables reliable tracing of quality attributes. The results showed that consumer perceptions of specific risks in food partly explain their WTP. Also negative experiences heard from other people increased the probability of WTP. Trust seems to be extremely significant factor in WTP models. This study implies that the majority of the respondents trust the food safety authorities and the co‐operation of all stakeholders in the food chain.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Risk; Trust; Information; Beef; Willingness to pay.; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Industrial Organization; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101282
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A Utilização da BM&F como Instrumento de Gerenciamento de Risco de Preço de Boi Gordo Comercializado em Rondônia AgEcon
de Zen, Sergio; Bellotti de Melo, Guilherme.
This paper aimed to analyse the BM&F cattle future market as a tool for price risk management for traders that deal cattle in the Rondônia State. In order to reach this goal it was analysed if there is a long-term relationship between the cattle prices in Rondônia and the Esalq/BM&F Cattle Index. Besides that, it was done an examination of the optimal hedge Rio Branco – Acre, 20 a 23 de julho de 2008 Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administração e Sociologia Rural ratio and its effectiveness to the year of 2007. The results indicated that the cattle price in Rondônia and the Esalq/BM&F Cattle Index has a long-term relationship, which means the traders can use the BM&F as tool to hedge the cattle price in such state. However, through the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cattle Prices; Risk; Future Market; Rondônia; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96279
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Grain Contracting Strategies to Induce Delivery and Performance in Volatile Markets AgEcon
Wilson, William W.; Dahl, Bruce L..
One of the impacts of higher prices along with greater volatility in futures and basis is that there is pressure for an escalation in cash contracting for grain. This volatility has resulted in an unprecedented level of contracting with growers in recent years. There is a wide array of cash contracts with varying terms. There is also a growing realization of growers not delivering on contracts, in part due to escalation in postcontract prices. These are evolving as major strategic issues for buyers and the marketing system, particularly as buyers seek to use such contracting strategies as an element of risk mitigation. There are three purposes of this article. First is to provide a broad survey of contract terms used in grain contracting with growers....
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Grain contracting; Risk; Volatility; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C15; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53082
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Risk Analysis in Selected European and International Food Chains AgEcon
Ameseder, Christoph; Haas, Rainer; Fritz, Melanie; Schiefer, Gerhard.
The purpose of this study is to assess and evaluate the most important risks in selected European and international food chains from the perspective of the buying company. The primary objective is to identify the “non-acceptable” risks in terms of damage potential and likelihood of occurrence of value chains in the sectors grain, meat, fruit and vegetable, and olive oil. Data was collected by each partner of the European research project “e-trust” (FP6-CT-2006-043056) by conducting 81 qualitative expert interviews with business leaders in Europe (Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Spain) as well as in Brazil, Turkey, and the USA. The study focuses on a wider supply chain or network perspective for the risk assessment. Methodically the assessed...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Risk analysis; Supply chain; Food; Risk map; Risk classification; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Security and Poverty; Industrial Organization; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58708
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Food security policy in a stochastic world AgEcon
Adelman, Irma; Berck, Peter.
Food security may be increased by variance-reducing strategies, by food aid, or by development strategies. This paper uses a Korea CGE model, subjected to random fluctuation in world-prices and domestic food productivity, to evaluate these policies. We find that poverty-reducing development strategies are the most effective food-security strategies.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural policies; Food aid; Prices; Risk; Stochastic models.
Ano: 1989 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43664
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Estimating an Ex Ante Cost Function for Belgian Arable Crop Farms AgEcon
Hansen, Kristiana; Baudry, Alexandre; De Blander, Rembert; Frahan, Bruno Henry de; Polome, Philippe.
We estimate a farm-level cost function for Belgian crop farms using FADN data over the study period 1996-2006. We rely on an estimation of farmers' expected yields at the time cropping decisions are made rather than actual yields observed in the FADN data. The use of an ex ante cost function improves the cost function estimation. We subsequently suggest how our cost function can be used in simulations to analyze farmer response to changes in output price risk.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cost function estimation; Panel data; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49477
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Risk and De-Collectivisation: Evidence from the Czech Republic AgEcon
Bezemer, Dirk J..
The replacement of wage-labour farms by family farms in Central and Eastern Europe during the transformation has been more limited than was initially expected. In this paper a formal framework is developed in order to analyse the behaviour of family farms and socialist-style farms in the presence of risk, given the typical post-socialist environment. Management incentives, ownership structure, lump-sum transfers and consumption choices are shown to have the potential to limit the size of family farms relative to socialist-style farms. The hypotheses are tested with survey data collected by the author in the Czech Republic.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Transition; Agriculture; Structural change; Risk; Survey data; Risk and Uncertainty; D21; D81; O18; Q12.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24888
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MARKETING AND CROP INSURANCE COMBINED TO MANAGE RISK ON A CASS COUNTY REPRESENTATIVE FARM AgEcon
Clow, Aaron D.; Flaskerud, George K..
This study analyzed the effects that the use of crop insurance products and marketing alternatives had on the gross revenue per acre for an individual farm in Cass County. Crop insurance products and marketing strategies were analyzed individually to determine if they were effective in minimizing down side risk, and combined to determine if integration created synergies. A whole farm scenario analysis was run that included integrated strategies that implemented the same insurance coverage and marketing alternatives for each crop. Several general conclusions can be drawn for situations similar to the representative farm. When analyzed at the individual crop level, the use of crop insurance at the 65 percent level minimizes down side risk in wheat and corn,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk; Management; Strategy; Yield; Price; Insurance; Market; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23517
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Agricultural Precautionary Wealth AgEcon
Jensen, Farrell E.; Pope, Rulon D..
Using panel data, the relationship between income uncertainty and the stock of wealth through precautionary saving is examined. Evidence from Kansas data is consistent with the precautionary saving motive in that farm households facing greater uncertainty in income maintain larger stocks of wealth in order to smooth consumption. These results are found by regressing net worth against measures of permanent income (life-cycle income), measures of uncertainty, and demographic variables.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Precautionary saving; Precautionary wealth; Risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31146
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Spousal Risk Preferences and Household Investment Decisions AgEcon
Brady, Michael P.; Mandal, Bidisha.
Most adults are married, plan for retirement with their spouse, and pool assets to a significant degree. How then are each individual’s risk preferences combined in choosing the portfolio that represents for them the optimal tradeoff between risk and return? There are two pathways through which marriage could amplify the expression of individual risk preferences at the household level. First, if people choose spouses in part based on their appetite for risk, or another characteristic correlated with risk tolerance, then there could be polarization of household level risk preferences towards extremes. Second, spouses may strategically adjust their decisions to compensate for their spouse’s preferences. Is an only mildly risk averse person that is...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Households; Risk; Investing; Consumer/Household Economics.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103764
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Analysis for biotechnology innovations using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) AgEcon
Lanacre, Nicholas A.; Gaskell, Joanne; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Falck-Zepeda, Jose Benjamin; Quemada, Hector; Halsey, Mark; Birner, Regina.
Meeting the food needs of the world’s growing population while reducing poverty and protecting the environment is a major global challenge. Genetically modified crops appear to provide a promising option to deal with this challenge. However there is a need to make strategic decisions on how to spend limited agricultural research funds in order to achieve a maximum impact with regard to finding sustainable solutions to end hunger and poverty. In international development institutions, there is growing interest in the potential use of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) as part of a research based Environmental Management System (EMS) to promote mainstreaming of environmental considerations in policy development. SEA was developed as an approach to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk; Strategic Environmental Assessment; Genetically Modified; GMO; LMO; Living Modified Organisms; Biotechnology; Environmental risk; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58584
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CONSUMER FOOD SAFETY BEHAVIOR: A CASE STUDY IN HAMBURGER COOKING AND ORDERING AgEcon
Starke, Yolanda; Ralston, Katherine L.; Brent, C. Philip; Riggins, Toija; Lin, Chung-Tung Jordan.
More Americans are eating hamburgers more well-done than in the past, according to national surveys. This change reduced the risk of E. coli O157:H7 infection by an estimated 4.6 percent and reduced associated medical costs and productivity losses by an estimated $7.4 million annually. In a 1996 survey, respondents who were more concerned about the risk of foodborne illness cooked and ordered hamburgers more well-done than those who were less concerned. However, respondents who strongly preferred hamburgers less well-done cooked and ordered them that way, even after accounting for their concern about the risk of illness.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Hamburger doneness; Ground beef; Food safety; Food safety education; E. coli O157:H7; Consumer behavior; Survey; Risk; Foodborne illness; Risk perceptions; Palatability; Information; Microbial pathogens; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34061
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Factors Influencing Private Landowner Restoration Investment Decisions in Coastal Louisiana AgEcon
Dedah, Cheikhna O.; Kazmierczak, Richard F., Jr.; Keithly, Walter R., Jr..
Coastal wetland loss has been a major problem in Louisiana, exceeding 1.2 million acres over the last century alone. Although federal, state, and local efforts have attempted to combat this loss from a public perspective, little has been done to encourage private landowners to maintain and protect their coastal lands. This paper investigates the factors that influence private landowners to invest in coastal wetland restoration and maintenance activities in Louisiana. We surveyed private coastal landowners to determine their general socioeconomic characteristics, attitudes toward risks, attitudes toward wetland conservation, current uses of landholdings, and previous investments in wetland restoration and maintenance projects. Using this survey data, an...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Wetlands; Restoration; Investment; Risk; Attitudes; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56451
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Simulation of Alternative Marketing Strategies for U.S. Cotton AgEcon
Elrod, Christopher P.; Robinson, John R.C.; Richardson, James W..
Three marketing strategies (selling a put option, cash sale at harvest, and cash sale in June) are simulated based on historical values and ranked based on certainty equivalents for a representative irrigated and dryland cotton farm Scenario analysis is also used to compare varying yield values.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Simulation; Marketing; Cotton; Risk; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6885
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