SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Perry, Christopher J.; Narayanamurthy, S.G..

Explores the theoretical and actual responses of farmers faced with irrigation supplies that are limited in relation to available land and labor resources, and where the actual schedule and available volume for delivery are uncertain.

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Water resource management; Water use efficiency; Evapotranspiration; Agricultural production; Irrigated farming; Irrigation scheduling; Water allocation; Water supply; Water scarcity; Water delivery; Reservoirs; Uncertainty; Yield; Crop Production/Industries; Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44582

The Benefits of Air Pollutant Emissions Reductions in Maryland: Results from the Maryland Externalities Screening and Valuation Model

Austin, David H.; Krupnick, Alan J.; Burtraw, Dallas; Stoessell, Terrell.

This paper reports the results of policy simulations of environmental and human health externalities arising from the production of electricity. The primary purpose of this paper is to illustrate the Maryland Externalities Screening and Valuation Model, developed for the State of Maryland's Department of Natural Resources. A secondary purpose is to estimate likely Maryland benefits from Title IV emissions reductions at electric power generation facilities. Sources and scope of benefits, and the potential of policy to achieve specific environmental and human health goals, are suggested by the results. We find that expected health benefits from reductions in power plant emissions dominate the estimated benefits of improved recreational visibility and...

CHARACTERIZING UNCERTAIN OUTCOMES WITH THE RESTRICTED HT TRANSFORMATION

Palavras-chave: Integrated assessment; Health and environmental benefits; Valuation; Uncertainty; Environmental Economics and Policy; I81; Q24; Q25; Q26; Q49.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10825

Beef Supply Response Under Uncertainty: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

Moffitt, L. Joe.

Restrictions on the hyperbolic trigonometric (HT) transformation are imposed to guarantee that a probability density function is obtained from the maximum likelihood estimation. Performance of the restricted HT transformation using data generated from normal, beta, gamma, logistic, log-normal, Pareto, Weibull, order statistic, and bimodal populations is investigated via sampling experiments. Results suggest that the restricted HT transformaltion is sufficiently flexible to compete with the actual population distributions in most cases. Application of the restricted HT transformation is illustrated by characterizing uncertain net income per acre for community-supported agriculture farms in the northeastern United States.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Farm management; Hyperbolic trigonometric transformation; Uncertainty; Farm Management; C2; Q1.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15074

Mbaga, Msafiri Daudi; Coyle, Barry T..

This is the first econometric study of dynamic beef supply response to incorporate risk aversion or, more specifically, price variance. Autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models are estimated for cow-calf and feedlot operations using aggregate data for Alberta. In all cases, output price variance has a negative impact on output supply and investment. Moreover, the impacts of expected price on supply response are greater in magnitude and significance than in risk-neutral models.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Autoregressive distributed lag model; Beef supply response; Dynamics; Uncertainty; Agribusiness.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31068

Changing business environment: implications for farming

Delayed Action and Uncertain Targets. How Much Will Climate Policy Cost?

Malcolm, Bill.

The natural, technological, economic, political and social environment in which farmers farm constantly changes. History has lessons about change in agriculture and about farmers coping with change, though the future is unknowable and thus always surprising. The implication for farm operation is to prepare, do not predict.

Tipo: Article

Palavras-chave: Preparation; Prediction; Farm management; Uncertainty; Farm Management.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122904

Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Sgobbi, Alessandra; Tavoni, Massimo.

Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus about the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement effective mitigation strategies, at least in the short-term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that some, if not all countries, will delay the adoption of effective climate policies. This delay will affect the cost of future policy measures that will be required to abate an even larger amount of emissions. What additional economic cost of mitigation measures will this delay imply? At the same time, the uncertainty surrounding the global stabilisation target to be...

Time perspective and climate change policy

Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Climate Policy; Stabilisation Costs; Delayed Action; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44219

Karp, Larry S.; Tsur, Yacov.

The tendency to foreshorten time units as we peer further into the future provides an explanation for hyperbolic discounting at an intergenerational time scale. We study implications of hyperbolic discounting for climate change policy, when the probability of a climate-induced catastrophe depends on the stock of greenhouse gasses. We provide a positive analysis by characterizing the set of Markov perfect equilibria (MPE) of the intergenerational game amongst a succession of policymakers. Each policymaker reflects her generation’s preferences, including its hyperbolic discounting. For a binary action game, we compare the MPE set to a “restricted commitment” benchmark. We compare the associated “constant equivalent discount rates” and the willingness to pay...

SISTEMAS DE IRRIGAÇÃO: VANTAGEM COMPETITIVA E/OU INCERTEZA

Palavras-chave: Hyperbolic discounting; Markov Perfect Equilibria; Catastrophic climate change; Uncertainty; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C61; C73; D63; D99; Q54.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42848

Talamini, Edson; Oliveira, Leticia de.

Um dos atributos de diferenciação utilizados pelo agronegócio para obter competitividade é o uso de sistema de irrigação, que será rentável e sustentável, se for usado adequadamente, maximizando a eficiência do uso da terra e da água. Entretanto, o uso dos recursos hídricos nas atividades econômicas é incerto, devido a mudanças climáticas, ambientais, sociais, entre outras. Dessa forma, os objetivos são: verificar o uso dos recursos hídricos, identificar como os sistemas de irrigação contribuem para a competitividade do agronegócio e identificar algumas das incertezas dos sistemas de irrigação no campo dos agronegócios. Este ensaio teórico pode ser classificado como qualitativo e exploratório, fundamentado em referências bibliográficas pertinentes com a...

THE IMPACT OF INFORMATION ON LAND DEVELOPMENT: A DYNAMIC AND STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS

Palavras-chave: Recursos hídricos; Irrigação; Competitividade; Incerteza; Water resources; Irrigation; Competitiveness; Uncertainty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109628

Batabyal, Amitrajeet A..

In a two-period model, economists such as K.J. Arrow, A.C. Fisher, and C. Henry, have shown that when development is both indivisible and irreversible, a developer who ignores the possibility of obtaining new information about the outcome of such development will invariably underestimate the benefits of preservation and hence favor development. In this note, I extend the AFH analysis in two directions. I model the land development problem in a dynamic framework, explicitly specifying an information production function. In such a setting, I then ask and answer the question concerning when development should take place. Forthcoming in Journal of Environmental Management

Does trust influence consumer behaviour?

Palavras-chave: Development; Dynamic; Information; Uncertainty; Land Economics/Use; D82; Q20.

Ano: 1995

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28356

Climate Change and Individual Decision Making: An Examination of Knowledge, Risk Perception, Self-interest and Their Interplay

Dierks, Leef H..

Against the background of diverse food scandals this article investigates the role of trust as a determinant of consumer behaviour in Germany. As empirical analyses indicate, the impact of trust on consumer behaviour in a quotidian and presumably safe setting is to be neglected. In the environment of a food scandal, however, trust proves to be a crucial element with regard to a more in-depth understanding of consumer behaviour under uncertainty. Moreover, it is analysed whether different values of trust allow for deriving coherent population segments and whether these can likewise be identified on the basis of consumers’ socio-economic features.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Consumer behaviour; Uncertainty; Food safety; Trust; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty; Consumer/Household Economics; Farm Management.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96727

Uncertainty in Individuals' Preferences for Non-commodity Outputs Provided by Rural Development Programs (RDPs): A Contingent Valuation Approach

Pongiglione, Francesca.

In this essay, three separate yet interconnected components of pro-environmental decision making are considered: (a) knowledge, in the form of basic scientific understanding and procedural knowledge, (b) risk perception, as it relates to an individual’s direct experience of climate change and (c) self-interest, either monetary or status-driven. Drawing on a variety of sources in public policy, psychology, and economics, I examine the role of these concepts in inducing or discouraging pro-environmental behavior. Past researches have often overemphasized the weight of just one of those variables in the decision making. I argue, instead, that none of them alone is capable of bringing about the behavioral change required by the environmental crisis. Evidence...

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Individual Behavior; Climate-Change; Psychology; Uncertainty; Environmental Economics and Policy; D03; D80; Q00.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119094

Dominguez-Torreiro, Marcos; Solino, Mario.

Rural development programs (RDPs) are currently envisaged as a means to foster the provision of a broad range of non-commodity outputs emanating from multifunctional rural environments. This paper presents a Contingent Valuation survey that analyses individuals’ perceptions of and willingness to pay (WTP) for the implementation of a RDP in Cantabria, Spain. Uncertainty in individuals’ preferences is explicitly acknowledged and introduced into our analytical framework. For that purpose, a comparison is made between the open-ended (OE) and the multiple bounded uncertainty (MBU) elicitation formats. According to our behavioural model estimates, the expectation of a positive welfare change for both rural and urban dwellers constitutes a sound argument in...

A Safety Valve for Emissions Trading

Palavras-chave: Rural development policy; Non-commodity outputs; Contingent valuation; Elicitation formats; Uncertainty; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q0; Q18; Q51; R0.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114437

Stranlund, John K..

This paper considers the optimal design of an emissions trading program that includes a safety valve tax that allows pollution sources to escape the emissions cap imposed by the aggregate supply of emissions permits. I demonstrate that an optimal hybrid emissions trading/emissions tax policy involves a permit supply that is strictly less than under a pure emissions trading scheme and a safety valve tax that exceeds the optimal pure emissions tax as long as expected marginal damage is an increasing function. While the expected level of emissions under a hybrid policy may be more or less than under pure emissions trading or a pure emissions tax, under the assumption that uncertainty about aggregate marginal abatement costs is symmetric the most likely...

Assessing the impact of different rural development policy design options on the adoption of innovation across five case studies in EU

Palavras-chave: Emissions Taxes; Emissions Trading; Uncertainty; Safety Valve; Hybrid Emissions Control; Environmental Economics and Policy; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; L51; Q28.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53125

Bartolini, Fabio; Floridi, Matteo; Latruffe, Laure; Majewski, Edward; Nikolov, Dimitre; Polman, Nico B.P.; Viaggi, Davide.

Innovation and new technology adoption represent two central elements for the enterprise and industry development process in agriculture. The objective of the paper is to provide an ex-ante analysis of the effectiveness of alternative policy design options concerning the RDP measures intended to provide incentives for investment/innovation adoption in five case study areas across Europe. The model implemented is based on a real option approach that includes investment irreversibility and stochasticity in SFP. The results show the relevance of uncertainty in determining the timing of adoption and emphasise the importance of predictability as a major component of policy design.

Economic Incentives for Controlling Trade-Related Biological Invasions in the Great Lakes

Palavras-chave: Real options; Innovation; Rural development policy; Single farm payments; Uncertainty; Community/Rural/Urban Development.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94907

Lupi, Frank; Horan, Richard D..

Ballast water from commercial ships engaged in international trade has been implicated as the primary invasion pathway in over 60 percent of new introductions of invasive alien species (IAS) in the Great Lakes since 1960. Recent policies have recognized that IAS are a form of biological pollution and have become focused on preventing new introductions. Given that emissions-based incentives are infeasible for the case of biological emissions, we investigate the cost-effectiveness of various performance proxy-based and technology-based economic incentives to reduce the threat of new invasions of Ponto-Caspian species in the Great Lakes.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Aquatic nuisance species; Ballast water; Uncertainty; Risk management; Performance-based incentives; Environmental subsidies; International Relations/Trade; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10200

PRICE UNCERTAINTY AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

Ji, Wen; Holt, Matthew T..

This paper examines the effects of price uncertainty on agricultural productivity. Appelbaum(1991) provided an empirical framework to analyze the effects of uncertainty on firm behavior. We apply the model to the U.S. agricultural sector, using a parametric rather than a nonparametric approach to obtain the measurement of price uncertainty and risk. Keywords: risk, uncertainty, productivity

The Certainty of Confronting Uncertainty in the Chesapeake Bay Restoration Effort

Palavras-chave: Risk; Uncertainty; Productivity; Productivity Analysis.

Ano: 2000

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21736

Towards a Theory of Policy Making

Hershner, Carlton.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Environmental Restoration; TMDL; Chesapeake Bay; Adaptive Management; Uncertainty; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q00; Q01; Q20; Q28.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117401

Mittenzwei, Klaus; Bullock, David S.; Salhofer, Klaus; Kola, Jukka.

The paper presents a theory of policy timing that relies on uncertainty and transaction costs to explain the optimal timing and length of policy reforms. Delaying reforms resolves some uncertainty by gaining valuable information and saves transaction costs. Implementing reforms without waiting increases welfare by adjusting domestic policies to changed market parameters. Optimal policy timing is found by balancing the trade-off between delaying reforms and implementing reforms without waiting. Our theory offers an explanation of why countries differ with respect to the length of their policy reforms, and why applied studies often judge agricultural policies to be inefficient.

Risk - An Opportunity or Threat for Entrepreneurial Farmers in the Global Food Market?

Palavras-chave: Policy analysis; Uncertainty; Dynamic model; Transaction costs; Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114639

Shadbolt, Nicola M.; Olubode-Awosola, Femi; Gray, David I.; Dooley, Elizabeth.

www.ifama.org

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Farm management; Opportunities; Threats; Agribusiness; Q12.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96335

MODELING ECOLOGICAL CONSTRAINTS ON TROPICAL FOREST MANAGEMENT: COMMENT

Barrett, Christopher B.; Batabyal, Amitrajeet A..

We comment on four aspects of Albers' [1] model of ecological constraints on tropical forest management. Albers structures her model in a highly asymmetric manner, with strong, uniform biases against development and in favor of preservation. Despite Albers' repeated claims that her model is "complete" and that it has significant implications for tropical forest management, we contend instead that the results of a truly general, empirically defensible model are inherently ambiguous. Spatial and intertemporal dimensions clearly matter, but they do not point as neatly in favor of preservation as Albers would have us believe. Note: Forthcoming in Journal of Environmental Economics and Management