SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Haque, Imdadul; Rozakis, Stelios; Ganko, Ewa; Kallivroussis, Leonidas.

Recent reforms in the Common Agricultural Policy and the sugar regime caused serious concerns for the future of the European sugar industry. At the same time, the European Commission considers transportation bio-fuels as a key factor for reducing reliance on imported fuels, emission levels of greenhouse gases and to meet rural development goals. Matching the sugar sector with bio-ethanol production may create opportunities for sustainable management of the existing sugar industry infrastructure and also serve bio-fuel policy targets. A partial equilibrium economic model is used in order to evaluate the shift from sugar to bio-ethanol production in Thessaly, Greece. In the agricultural feedstock supply and industrial processing sub-models are articulated...

An Ethanol Blend Wall Shift is Prone to Increase Petroleum Gasoline Demand

Palavras-chave: Sugar beet; Grain; Ethanol; Mathematical programming; Greece; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58026

Qiu, Cheng; Colson, Gregory; Zhang, Zibin; Wetzstein, Michael E..

The US Environmental Protection Agency announced a waiver allowing an increase in the Fuel-Ethanol blend limit (the “blend wall” ) from 10% (E10) to 15% (E15) on October,2010.Justifications for the waiver are reduced vehicle fuel prices and less consumption of petroleum gasoline, leading to energy security. In this paper, employing Monte Carlo simulations and Savitzky-Golay smoothing filter, an empirical study examines this waiver revealing an anomaly where a relaxation of this blend wall elicits a demand response. Under a wide range of elasticities, this demand response can actually increase the consumption of petroleum gasoline and thus lead to greater energy insecurity. The economics supporting this result and associated policy implications are...

POTENTIAL CORN ACREAGE EXPANSION FOR ETHANOL PRODUCTION: WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA--MINOT

Palavras-chave: Blend wall; Energy security; Ethanol; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98795

Gustafson, Cole R..

Several recent developments have stimulated farmers' interest in raising corn for ethanol production in northwestern North Dakota. The purpose of this study is to estimate the corn supply response of western North Dakota farmers for ethanol production. Two focus groups of western North Dakota farmers (Williston and Minot) were organized. The market premium over prevailing local corn prices that was required by western North Dakota farms to entice additional production of an ethanol specific hybrid was determined. Aggregation of these farm responses yielded a supply function of corn for the region. Results show that sufficient corn can be produced in the surrounding region to support a 12 million gallon ethanol facility if modest price premiums are...

Examining the Evolving Correspondence Between Petroleum Prices and Agricultural Commodity Prices

Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Corn supply; Response; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23582

Campiche, Jody L.; Bryant, Henry L.; Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L..

Over the last few years, the production of renewable fuels has increased dramatically. Rising oil prices, limited supplies of fossil fuel, and increased concerns about global warming have created a growing demand for renewable energy sources. Both the ethanol and biodiesel industries have experienced tremendous growth in the past few years. The production of these fuels is highly dependent on the availability of agricultural feedstocks. This research examined the covariability between crude oil prices and corn, sorghum, sugar, soybeans, soybean oil, and palm oil prices during the 2003-2007 time period. Johansen cointegration tests revealed no cointegrating relationships during the 2003-2005 time frame. However, corn prices and soybean prices were...

Environmental Efficiency Among Corn Ethanol Plants

Palavras-chave: Energy; Ethanol; Biodiesel; Renewable fuels; Crude oil prices; Cointegration; Demand and Price Analysis; Q11; Q13; Q42.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9881

Sesmero, Juan P.; Perrin, Richard K.; Fulginiti, Lilyan E..

Economic viability of the US corn ethanol industry depends on prices, technical and economic efficiency of plants and on continuation of policy support. Public policy support is tied to the environmental efficiency of plants measured as their impact on emissions of greenhouse gases. This study evaluates the environmental efficiency of seven recently constructed ethanol plants in the North Central region of the U.S., using nonparametric data envelopment analysis (DEA). The minimum level of GHG emissions feasible with the available technology is calculated for each plant and this level is used to decompose environmental efficiency into its technical and allocative sources. Results show that, on average, plants in our sample may be able to reduce GHG...

Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model

Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Data envelopment analysis; Life-cycle emissions; Environmental efficiency; Shadow prices; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61650

Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward).

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market multi-commodity international FAPRI model. The model incorporates the tradeoffs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade. We examine land allocation by type of crop, and pasture use for countries growing feedstock for ethanol (corn, sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, and other grains) and major crops competing with feedstock for land resources such as oilseeds. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil, China, EU, and India, and compute shock multipliers for...

Food or Fuel? Choices and Conflicts

Palavras-chave: Acreage; Area; Biofuel; Corn; Crops; Ethanol; FAPRI model; Feedstock; Land; Sugar; Sugarcane; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q42; Q17; Q15.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6183

How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets

Elam, Thomas E..

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Corn Prices; Biofuels Policy; Tax Credits; RFS; Food versus Fuel; Food Security and Poverty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q28; Q11.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94664

Mallory, Mindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Irwin, Scott H..

In this article we use the theories of market efficiency and supply of storage to develop a conceptual link between the corn and ethanol markets and explore statistical evidence for the link. We propose that a long-run no-profit condition is established in distant futures markets for ethanol, corn, and natural gas and then use the theory of storage to define an inter-temporal equilibrium among these prices. The relationship shows that under certain conditions, future price expectations will influence current spot prices and that a short-term relationship between input and output prices will exist. This short-term relationship will contain fixed costs. We demonstrate validity of the theory using a structural price model and then by means of time-series...

Understanding the Underlying Fundamentals of Ethanol Markets: Linkages between Energy and Agriculture

Palavras-chave: Arbitrage; Cointegration; Corn; Energy; Ethanol; Futures; Price-analysis; Storage.; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97611

Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E..

This study analyzes the impact of price shocks in three input and output markets critical to ethanol: gasoline, corn, and sugar. We investigate the impact of these shocks on ethanol and related agricultural markets in the United States and Brazil. We find that the composition of a country's vehicle fleet determines the direction of the response of ethanol consumption to changes in the gasoline price. We also find that a change in feedstock costs affects the profitability of ethanol producers and the domestic ethanol price. In Brazil, where two commodities compete for sugarcane, changes in the sugar market affect the competing ethanol market.

Testing for Speculative Behavior in US Corn Ethanol Investments

Palavras-chave: Agricultural markets; Energy; Ethanol; Renewable fuels; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q11; Q18; Q42.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9795

Kumarappan, Subbu; Gustafson, Cole R..

Crude oil price speculation during 2000s could have increased installed capacity in corn ethanol plants beyond what was warranted by the market factors. We use Muth’s commodity pricing model and Flood and Garber’s tests to test for speculative investment in US corn ethanol industry. The ethanol price expectations are derived using a system of supply-demand-inventory describing US ethanol markets under rational expectations (perfect foresight). These price expectations can help differentiate the installed capacity into two: capacity supported by the market fundamentals and the probable capacity that is installed based on speculation. Econometric estimation procedures and functional form approximations are discussed.

Economic Competitiveness of Bioenergy Production and Effects on Agriculture of the Southern Region

Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Speculation; Commodity prices; Investment; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Q14; Q41; D8; L71.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61418

English, Burton C.; Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la; Walsh, Marie E.; Hellwinckel, Chad M.; Menard, R. Jamey.

The economic competitiveness of biobased industries is discussed by comparing the South relative to other regions of the United States and biomass as a feedstock source relative to fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum. An estimate of the biomass resource base is provided. Estimated changes in the agricultural sector over time resulting from the development of a large-scale biobased industry are reported, and a study on the potential to produce electricity from biomass compared with coal in the southern United States is reviewed. A biobased industry can increase net farm income and enhance economics development and job creation.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Biobased industries; Biomass; Cofire; Energy; Ethanol; Lignocellulosic; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q42; Q41; R15; Q11.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43775

PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS FOR AN INTEGRATED BIOMATERIALS AND ETHANOL BIOREFINERY USING WHEAT STRAW FEEDSTOCK

Leistritz, F. Larry; Senechal, Donald M.; Stowers, Mark D.; McDonald, William F.; Saffron, Chris M.; Hodur, Nancy M..

Biobased products and fuels appear to have a very bright future. A consortium led by NDSU is currently engaged in a project that would use cellulose nanofibers derived from wheat straw to make a product that could substitute for fiberglass and plastics in many applications, including automotive parts. The work described here analyzes the economic value of producing cellulose nanowhiskers (CNW) as a co-product in an ethanol biorefinery. An ASPEN Plus-based process model was developed to evaluate ethanol production from wheat straw. The base case model generated 54.418 million gallons per year (MGPY) of denatured ethanol, using approximately 900,000 tons per year of wheat straw feedstock. The capital cost was estimated at $185 million. Total operating...

SPATIAL COMPETITION AND ETHANOL PLANT LOCATION DECISIONS

Palavras-chave: Biomass; Biomaterials; Ethanol; Wheat straw; Cellulose nanowhiskers (CNW); Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23500

Sarmiento, Camilo; Wilson, William W..

This article estimates factors that impact location decisions by new ethanol plants using logistic regression analysis and spatial correlation techniques. The results indicate that location decisions are impacted by the agricultural characteristics of a county, competition, and state-level subsidies. Spatial competition is particularly important. Existence of a competing ethanol plant reduces the likelihood of making a positive location decision and this impact decreases with distance. State-level subsidies are significant and a very important factor impacting ethanol location decisions.

Economic Feasibility of Ethanol Production from Sweet Sorghum Juice in Texas

Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Location decisions; Spatial correlation; Agribusiness.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6175

Morris, Brittany D.; Richardson, James W.; Frosch, Brian J.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Rooney, William L..

The economic feasibility of producing ethanol from sweet sorghum juice is projected using Monte Carlo simulation models to estimate the price ethanol plants will likely have to pay for sweet sorghum and the uncertain returns for ethanol plants. Ethanol plants in high yielding regions will likely generate returns on assets of 11%-12% and in low yield areas the returns on assets will be less than 10%.

Virtual Investment Concepts and the Ethanol Industry

Palavras-chave: Sweet Sorghum; Ethanol; Monte Carlo Simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; D20 G10 D81 C15.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46852

Siebert, John W.; Hagerman, Amy D.; Park, John L..

The fast-growing US ethanol industry has historically been characterized by large downstream investments made by farmers. The authors assess the value which the stock market may hold for downstream investment by farmers as well as by ethanol manufacturers themselves. The model framework used herein expands on the original VEST framework developed by Siebert, Jones and Sporleder. A word of caution, the model herein is not intended to provide an on-going, risk-reducing business strategy. However, it can and does provide a quick method to calculate the reasonableness of a downstream investment request that a farmer (or any business person) might be challenged to consider. Although virtual stock market investments may certainly assist in value added...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Cooperatives; Corn; Equities; Ethanol; Value added; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q10; Q32.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53737

ECONOMICS OF BIOMASS GASIFICATION/COMBUSTION AT FUEL ETHANOL PLANTS

Tiffany, Douglas G.; Morey, R. Vance; De Kam, Matthew J..

Published in Applied Engineering in Agriculture, Vol. 25(3): 391‐400

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Biomass; Economics; CHP; Emissions; Process heat; Electricity production; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93632

TEREMOS QUE TROCAR ENERGIA POR COMIDA? ANÁLISE DO IMPACTO DA EXPANSÃO DA PRODUÇÃO DE CANA-DE-AÇÚCAR SOBRE O PREÇO DA TERRA E DOS ALIMENTOS

Chagas, Andre Luiz Squarize; Toneto Junior, Rudinei.

O trabalho discute os principais argumentos contrários a expansão da produção de cana-de-açúcar no país, sobretudo para produção de etanol. Mais especificamente, um dos obstáculos à expansão da produção desta commodity diz respeito ao seu potencial impacto sobre o preço da terra e, conseqüentemente, sobre os preços dos alimentos. Os defensores deste ponto de vista argumentam que a pressão sobre os preços da terra seria inevitavelmente repassada para o preço dos alimentos, prejudicando, sobretudo, os mais pobres. No trabalho analisa-se 26 anos de produção de cana-de-açúcar, preço da terra e preços dos alimentos, em dados semestrais, por meio de abordagem VAR. Nossos resultados sugerem que não existe relação de causalidade no sentido de Granger entre...

The Impact of Ethanol Plants on Cropland Values in the Great Plains

Palavras-chave: Etanol; Preço da terra; Cointegração; Ethanol; Land price; Cointegration; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108570

Henderson, Jason R.; Gloy, Brent A..

Corn ethanol plants consume large amounts of corn and their location has the potential to alter local crop prices and surrounding agricultural land values. The relationship between ethanol plant location and agricultural land prices is examined using data obtained from the Agricultural Credit Survey administered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The findings indicate that the portion of land price changes attributable to location is consistent with previous estimates of basis changes associated with ethanol plant location. As a result, the land markets appear to be rationally adjusting to the location of ethanol plants.

Crop-Based Biofuel Production under Acreage Constraints and Uncertainty

Palavras-chave: Farmland; Ethanol; Land values; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Financial Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51080

Baker, Mindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A..

A myriad of policy issues and questions revolve around understanding the bioeconomy. To gain insight, we develop a stochastic and dynamic general equilibrium model and capture the uncertain nature of key variables such as crude oil prices and commodity yields. We also incorporate acreage limitations on key feedstocks such as corn, soybeans, and switchgrass. We make standard assumptions that investors are rational and engage in biofuel production only if returns exceed what they can expect to earn from alternative investments. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 mandates the use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022, with significant requirements for cellulosic biofuel and biodiesel production. We calculate the level of tax credits required...

APLICAÇÃO DA ANÁLISE ENVOLTÓRIA DE DADOS (DEA) PARA AVALIAÇÃO DE EFICIÊNCIA DE USINAS DE AÇÚCAR E ÁLCOOL DA REGIÃO NORDESTE DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO

Palavras-chave: Biodiesel; Biofuels; Cellulosic; Dynamic; Ethanol; General equilibrium; Monte Carlo; Market; Crop Production/Industries; Political Economy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6314