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Welfare Changes from the U.S. Ethanol Tax Credit: The Role of Uncertainty and Interlinked Commodity Markets AgEcon
Baker, Mindy L..
A model of the corn, soybean, and wheat markets calculates welfare effects of the U.S. ethanol tax credit. Crop yields are uncertain, and demand consists of feed, food, energy, and exports. Modeling uncertainty in crop yields allows the valuation of deficiency payments as options. Disaggregating demand records who benefits from the tax credit and by how much; incorporating linked crop markets captures indirect effects important for determining the transfer from consumers to producers. There is $600 million in net welfare loss, increased taxpayer liability, and a large transfer from consumers to farmers. A brief comparison of recent literature is included.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Biofuel; Commodity; Ethanol; Tax credit; Uncertainty; Welfare.; Risk and Uncertainty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Food Security and Poverty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45627
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China-U.S. Potential Non-food Ethanol Exportation AgEcon
Yeboah, Osei-Agyeman; Ofori-Boadu, Victor; Li, Tongzhe.
To reduce national oil dependency, ethanol has been given a center stage of U.S. energy sources. The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program was launched to increase the volume of renewable gasoline from 9 billion gallons in 2008 to 36 billion gallons by 2012, among which 15 billion are corn-based ethanol, while U.S. corn-based ethanol can hardly achieve this level. There is a trend that indicates U.S. importing ethanol from other countries, so a bilateral trade system has been established between U.S. and Brazil since 2003. The annual import is 211 million gallons in 2008 (USDC, 2009). Nevertheless, this amount is far away from the target, and the worldwide food shortage called us to divert our attention from fuel to food. China, as the third largest...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Efficiency; Non-food; Productivity; Feedstocks; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Productivity Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56469
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Entry of Alternative Fuels in a Volatile U.S. Gasoline Market AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Duffield, James A.; Wetzstein, Michael E..
Dramatic increases in levels and volatility of gasoline prices observed in recent years may create market incentives for adoption of alternative fuels characterized by lower price volatility. This hypothesis is investigated by applying the real-options pricing approach to develop optimal thresholds for switching from conventional gasoline to alternative fuels such as ethanol blends. The main result of the paper is that given the historical price patterns of conventional gasoline and ethanol, switching to ethanol blends is an economically sound decision provided this does not decrease efficiency of the vehicle. Analysis of data subsamples during the periods of higher volatility of gasoline prices (Gulf War and War on Terrorism) provides even stronger...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Alternative fuels; Decision making under uncertainty; Ethanol; Price volatility; Real options; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10144
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Examination of Ethanol Marketing and Input Procurement Practices of the U.S. Ethanol Producers AgEcon
Spaulding, Aslihan D.; Schmidgall, Timothy J..
Growing concerns about the dependence on foreign oil and high prices of gasoline have led to rapid growth in ethanol production in the past decade. Unlike earlier development of the ethanol industry which was highly concentrated in a few large corporations, recent ownership of the ethanol plants has been by farmer-owned cooperatives. Not much is known about the marketing and purchasing practices and plants’ flexibility with respect to adapting new technologies. The purpose of this research is to fill the gap in knowledge on these practices and to test whether the practices differ with the size and type of ownership.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Marketing; Input procurement; Technology; Marketing.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6457
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Bio-ethanol Production from Wheat in the Winter Rainfall Region of South Africa: A Quantitative Risk Analysis AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Lemmer, Wessel J.; Outlaw, Joe L..
Contrary to developments in other parts of the world, South Africa has not developed a bio-ethanol industry. The objective was to quantify the risks and economic viability of a wheat based bio-ethanol plant in the winter rainfall region of South Africa. Monte Carlo simulation of a bio-ethanol plant was used to quantify the risk that investors will likely face. Under the Base scenario a 103 million liter bio-ethanol plant would not offer a reasonable chance of being economically viable. Alternative price enhancing policies were analyzed to determine policy changes needed to make a bio-ethanol plant economically viable in the region.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Ethanol; Risk analysis; Simulation; Economic viability; Simetar; SERF; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8192
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Inside the Black Box: Price Linkage and Transmission Between Energy and Agricultural Markets AgEcon
Du, Xiaodong; McPhail, Lihong Lu.
This study addresses the complex relationship between energy and agricultural markets—represented by corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices—particularly in light of the growth in biofuel production. Contemporaneous price response and transmission of market shocks are investigated in a simultaneous-equation system to disclose fundamental driving forces before and after the development of large-scale ethanol production. We use a dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model to demonstrate a strengthening relationship among corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices. We identify a structural change point at March 25, 2008 using the test by Bai and Perron (2003). The strengthened market relationship is further illustrated by variance decomposition based on a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Corn; Ethanol; Gasoline; Structural break; Structural VAR; GARCH; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C32; Q11; Q4.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103268
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The Impact of Ethanol Production on U.S. and Regional Gasoline Prices and on the Profitability of the U.S. Oil Refinery Industry AgEcon
Du, Xiaodong; Hayes, Dermot J..
Using pooled regional time-series data and panel data estimation, we quantify the impact of monthly ethanol production on monthly retail regular gasoline prices. This analysis suggests that the growth in ethanol production has caused retail gasoline prices to be $0.29 to $0.40 per gallon lower than would otherwise have been the case. The analysis shows that the negative impact of ethanol on gasoline prices varies considerably across regions. The Midwest region has the biggest impact, at $0.39/gallon, while the Rocky Mountain region had the smallest impact, at $0.17/gallon. The results also indicate that ethanol production has significantly reduced the profit margin of the oil refinery industry. The results are robust with respect to alternative model...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Crack spread; Crude oil prices; Ethanol; Gasoline prices; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6235
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Effects of Increased Biofuels on the U.S. Economy in 2022 AgEcon
Gehlhar, Mark J.; Somwaru, Agapi; Somwaru, Agapi.
Achieving greater energy security by reducing dependence on foreign petroleum is a goal of U.S. energy policy. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) calls for a Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS-2), which mandates that the United States increase the volume of biofuel that is blended into transportation fuel from 9 billion gallons in 2008 to 36 billion gallons by 2022. Long-term technological advances are needed to meet this mandate. This report examines how meeting the RFS-2 would affect various key components of the U.S. economy. If biofuel production advances with cost-reducing technology and petroleum prices continue to rise as projected, the RFS-2 could provide economywide benefits. However, the actual level of benefits (or costs) to the...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Bioenergy; Economywide; Ethanol; Petroleum; Trade; Macroeconomic factors; RFS-2; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96758
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Chicago Board of Trade Ethanol Contract Efficiency AgEcon
Funk, Samuel M.; Zook, James E.; Featherstone, Allen M..
Firms producing ethanol may find management of the price risk associated with production of this leading alternative fuel a key factor to continued success. As with other agricultural commodities, the influence and ability of futures contracts to serve as a risk management tool deserves attention.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Contract efficiency; Ethanol; Futures contracts; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; Q43; M31.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6811
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Agricultural Impacts of Biofuels Production AgEcon
Walsh, Marie E.; Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la; English, Burton C.; Jensen, Kimberly L.; Hellwinckel, Chad M.; Menard, R. Jamey; Nelson, Richard G..
Analysis of the potential to supply 25% of projected 2025 U.S. transportation fuels indicates sufficient biomass resources are available to meet increased demand while simultaneously meeting food, feed, and export needs. Corn and soybeans continue to be important feedstocks for ethanol and biodiesel production, but cellulose feedstocks (agricultural crop residues, energy crops such as switchgrass, and forestry residues) will play a major role. Farm income increases, mostly because of higher crop prices. Increased crop prices increase the cost of producing biofuels.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biodiesel; Biofuels; Biomass; Cellulose feedstocks; Crop residues; Ethanol; Forest residues; Switchgrass; Agribusiness; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; O11; Q11; Q41.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6514
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The Impact of Ethanol Production on Spatial Grain Market Relationships AgEcon
Lewis, Karen E.; Tonsor, Glynn T..
www.ifama.org
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cointegration; Ethanol; Grain markets; Spatial relationships; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117607
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Cash Ethanol Cross-Hedging Opportunities AgEcon
Franken, Jason R.V.; Parcell, Joseph L..
Increased use of alternative fuels and low commodity prices have contributed to the recent expansion of the U.S. ethanol industry. As with any competitive industry, some level of output price risk exists in the form of volatility; yet, no actively traded ethanol futures market exists to mitigate output price risk. This study reports estimated minimum variance cross-hedge ratios between Detroit spot cash ethanol and the New York Mercantile Exchange unleaded gasoline futures for 1-, 4-, 8-, 12-, 16-, 20-, 24-, and 28-week hedge horizons. The research suggests that a one-to-one cross-hedge ratio is not appropriate for some horizons.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cross-hedging; Ethanol; Gas; G13; Q13; Q42.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43152
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Efficiency of New Ethanol Plants in the U.S. North-Central Region AgEcon
Sesmero, Juan P.; Perrin, Richard K.; Fulginiti, Lilyan E..
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/29/09.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Efficiency; DEA; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49438
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Estimating the Net Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol AgEcon
Shapouri, Hosein; Duffield, James A.; Graboski, Michael S..
Studies conducted since the late 1970's have estimated the net energy value of corn ethanol. However, variations in data and assumptions used among the studies have resulted in a wide range of estimates. This study identifies the factors causing this wide variation and develops a more consistent estimate. We conclude that the net energy value of corn ethanol has become positive in recent years due to technological advances in ethanol conversion and increased efficiency in farm production. We show that corn ethanol is energy efficient as indicated by an energy ratio of 1.24.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Net energy balance; Corn production; Energy security; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1995 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34005
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Determinants of Iowa Cropland Cash Rental Rates: Testing Ricardian Rent Theory AgEcon
Du, Xiaodong; Hennessy, David A.; Edwards, William M..
Based on the Ricardian rent theory, this study employs the variable profit function to analyze the determinants of Iowa cropland cash rental rates using county-level panel data from 1987 to 2005. Accounting for spatial and temporal autocorrelations, responses of local cash rental rates to changes in output prices and other exogenous variables are estimated. We find that Iowa cash rental rates are largely determined by output/input prices, soil quality, relative location, and other county-specific factors. Cash rents go up by $79 for a $1 increase in corn price in the short run. The marginal value of cropland quality, as represented by row-crop corn suitability rating index, is about $1.05. Ethanol plants are not found to have a significant local effect on...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Bargaining; Basis; Ethanol; Land quality shadow price; Rate of adjustment; Spatial autocorrelation; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7700
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INSURING UNCERTAINTY IN VALUE-ADDED AGRICULTURE: ETHANOL PRODUCTION AgEcon
Paulson, Nicholas D.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Hart, Chad E.; Hayes, Dermot J..
A wide variety of insurance products is available to agricultural producers to insure against yield or price risks in the markets for the raw commodities they produce. Value-added enterprises, such as ethanol production, have been expanding over the last decade. This paper outlines the development of an insurance product aimed at corn producers who are members of an ethanol production cooperative. The product has the potential to provide these producers with a new and useful risk management tool to insure against price risks in the markets for corn, distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS), ethanol, and natural gas. Monte Carlo analysis is used to develop fair premiums at various coverage levels. A historical correlation structure is imposed on the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Correlations; Ethanol; Insurance; Risk management; Value-added agriculture; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18375
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The Effect of Ethanol Production on Agricultural Production in the State of Alabama AgEcon
Kebede, Ellene; Duffy, Patricia A.; Zabawa, Robert.
This research assessed the economic effect of corn-based fuel ethanol production on agriculture and the state economy in Alabama. The results showed that in the short run a 15 million gallon per year plant will be profitable. This will have farm income and a multiplier affect in the rest of the state economy.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Corn producers; Farm income; Price elasticity; Economic impact; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35415
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Cross-Hedging Distillers Dried Grains Using Corn and Soybean Meal Futures Contracts AgEcon
Brinker, Adam J.; Parcell, Joseph L.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Franken, Jason R.V..
Ethanol mandates have led to an increase in the production of distillers dried grains (DDGs), a co-product of ethanol production that is incorporated into livestock rations. As with most competitive industries, there is some level of price risk in handling DDGs, and there is no DDG futures contract available for managing price risk. Commonly, DDGs are hedged using only corn futures. Our results suggest that cross-hedge risk may be reduced by including soybean meal futures in an encompassing cross-hedge strategy. Further, we also conclude soybean meal futures currently may be slightly more effective at reducing risk than in the past.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cross-hedge; Distillers dried grains; Ethanol; Price risk; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90654
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The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update AgEcon
Shapouri, Hosein; Duffield, James A.; Wang, Michael Q..
Studies conducted since the late 1970s have estimated the net energy value (NEV) of corn ethanol. However, variations in data and assumptions used among the studies have resulted in a wide range of estimates. This study identifies the factors causing this wide variation and develops a more consistent estimate. We conclude that the NEV of corn ethanol has been rising over time due to technological advances in ethanol conversion and increased efficiency in farm production. We show that corn ethanol is energy efficient as indicated by an energy output:input ratio of 1.34.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Net energy balance; Corn production; Energy; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34075
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Ethanol Marketing and Input Procurement Practices of U.S. Ethanol Producers: 2008 Survey Results AgEcon
Schmidgall, Timothy J.; Tudor, Kerry W.; Spaulding, Aslihan D.; Winter, J. Randy.
A mail survey was used to collect information about input procurement and ethanol and co-product marketing practices from 60 U.S. ethanol production facilities. Data were used to answer questions about the conduct or behavior of ethanol producers. It was anticipated that firm conduct or behavior would be fairly homogeneous because the ethanol industry was in Stage II of the industry life-cycle, and societal support for ethanol production resulted in large volumes of publicly available information about technology and markets. Age of facility, size of facility, and type of ownership jointly explained a limited number of differences in responses across ethanol facilities, thus supporting the concept of fairly homogeneous conduct or behavior.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Entry timing; Ethanol; Farmer-owned cooperatives; Industry life-cycle; Agribusiness; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q11; Q42.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96330
Registros recuperados: 227
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