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| Registros recuperados: 31 | |
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| Twyman, Chasca; Department of Geography, University of Sheffield; Sheffield Centre for International Drylands Research; C.Twyman@shef.ac.uk; Fraser, Evan D. G.; Department of Geography, University of Guelph; University of Leeds; frasere@uoguelph.ca; Stringer, Lindsay C.; Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds; l.stringer@leeds.ac.uk; Quinn, C.; Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds; C.H.Quinn@leeds.ac.uk; Dougill, Andrew J.; Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds; a.j.dougill@leeds.ac.uk; Crane, Todd A.; Technology and Agrarian Development, Wageningen University ; todd.crane@wur.nl; Sallu, Susannah M.; Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds; s.sallu@leeds.ac.uk. |
| The literature on drought, livelihoods, and poverty suggests that dryland residents are especially vulnerable to climate change. However, assessing this vulnerability and sharing lessons between dryland communities on how to reduce vulnerability has proven difficult because of multiple definitions of vulnerability, complexities in quantification, and the temporal and spatial variability inherent in dryland agroecological systems. In this closing editorial, we review how we have addressed these challenges through a series of structured, multiscale, and interdisciplinary vulnerability assessment case studies from drylands in West Africa, southern Africa, Mediterranean Europe, Asia, and Latin America. These case studies adopt a common vulnerability framework... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Insight |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Drylands; Scenarios; Narratives; Development; Livelihoods; Poverty; Policy. |
| Ano: 2011 |
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| Bengston, David N; USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station; dbengston@fs.fed.us; Kubik, George H; Anticipatory Futures Group, LLC; University of Minnesota, Innovation Studies; kubik005@umn.edu; Bishop, Peter C; Associate Professor of Strategic Foresight, Dept. of Futures Studies, The University of Houston; pbishop@uh.edu. |
| The need for environmental foresight has increased in recent decades as the pace of change has accelerated and the frequency of surprise has increased. Successfully dealing with the growing impacts of change on social-ecological systems depends on our ability to anticipate change. But traditional scientific tools are blunt instruments for studying a future that does not exist. We propose that futures research, a transdisciplinary field of inquiry that has been developing for more than 50 years, offers an underused but fruitful set of approaches to address this important challenge. A few futures research methods—notably several forms of scenario analysis—have been applied to environmental issues and problems in recent years. But... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis |
Palavras-chave: Environmental futures; Futures research; Scenarios; Strategic foresight. |
| Ano: 2012 |
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| Cork, Steven J; CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems and Land & Water Australia; stevecork@grapevine.net.au; Peterson, Garry D; Department of Geography & McGill School of the Environment, McGill University; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca; Bennett, Elena M; Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison; elena.bennett@mcgill.ca; Zurek, Monika; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); monika.zurek@fao.org. |
| This paper outlines the qualitative components (the storylines) of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) scenarios. Drawing on a mixture of expert knowledge, experience, and published literature, we have explored plausible consequences of four trajectories for human development. The storylines have been designed to draw out both benefits and risks for ecosystems and human well-being in all four trajectories with enough richness of detail to allow readers to immerse themselves in the world of the scenario. Only a summarized version of the storylines is presented here; readers are encouraged to read the more detailed versions (MA 2005). Together with the quantitative models (Alcamo et al. 2005) the storylines provide a base from which others can consider... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Adaptive governance; Economic development; Ecosystem services; Environmental management; Environmental technology; Futures; Poverty reduction; Regime shifts; Resilience; Scenarios; Urbanization. |
| Ano: 2006 |
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| Blenckner, Thorsten; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; thorsten.blenckner@stockholmresilience.su.se; Kannen, Andreas; Institute for Coastal Research, Human Dimensions in Coastal Areas; Andreas.Kannen@hzg.de; Barausse, Alberto; University of Padova;; Fischer, Christian; Institute for Coastal Research, Human Dimensions in Coastal Areas; Christian.Fischer@hzg.de; Heymans, Johanna J.; Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute;; Luisetti, Tiziana; Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment (CSERGE), School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia;; Todorova, Valentin; Institute of Oceanology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences;; Valman, Matilda; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University;; Mee, Laurence; Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute; laurence.mee@sams.ac.uk. |
| Marine environments have undergone large-scale changes in recent decades as a result of multiple anthropogenic pressures, such as overfishing, eutrophication, habitat fragmentation, etc., causing often nonlinear ecosystem responses. At the same time, management institutions lack the appropriate measures to address these abrupt transformations. We focus on existing examples from social–ecological systems of European seas that can be used to inform and advise future management. Examples from the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea on long-term ecosystem changes caused by eutrophication and fisheries, as well as changes in management institutions, illustrate nonlinear dynamics in social–ecological systems. Furthermore, we present two major future... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Ecosystem-based management; Regime shifts; Scenarios. |
| Ano: 2015 |
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| Daw, Tim M; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden; tim.daw@stockholmresilience.su.se; Bohensky, Erin L.; CSIRO Land and Water, Townsville, Australia; erin.bohensky@csiro.au; Butler, James R.A.; CSIRO Land and Water, Brisbane, Australia; james.butler@csiro.au; Hill, Rosemary; CSIRO Land and Water, Cairns, Australia; James Cook University, Division of Tropical Environments & Societies; ro.hill@csiro.au; Martin-Ortega, Julia; Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds, UK; Social, Economic and Geographical Sciences Group, The James Hutton Institute, UK; j.martinortega@leeds.ac.uk; Quinlan, Allyson; Resilience Alliance, Ottawa, Canada; aquinlan@resalliance.org; Thyresson, Matilda; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden; matilda.thyresson@su.se; Mistry, Jayalaxshmi; Department of Geography, Royal Holloway University of London, UK; j.mistry@rhul.ac.uk; Peterson, Garry D.; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden; garry.peterson@stockholmresilience.su.se; Plieninger, Tobias; Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Denmark; tobias.plieninger@ign.ku.dk; Waylen, Kerry A.; Social, Economic and Geographical Sciences Group, The James Hutton Institute, UK; kerry.waylen@hutton.ac.uk; Beach, Dylan M.; School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan; dylanbeach@gmail.com; Bohnet, Iris C.; James Cook University, Centre for Tropical and Sustainability Science, Cairns, Queensland, Australia; iris.bohnet@jcu.edu.au; Hamann, Maike; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; maike.hamann@su.se; Hubacek, Klaus; Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, USA; Hubacek@umd.edu; Vilardy, Sandra P.; Faculty of Basic Sciences, University of Magdalena, Colombia; svilardy@unimagdalena.edu.co. |
| Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Futures research; Methodological insights; Participation; Place-based research; Scenarios; Social-ecological systems. |
| Ano: 2015 |
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| Tschakert, Petra; Department of Geography; Earth and Environmental Systems Institute (EESI), Pennsylvania State University; petra@psu.edu; Dietrich, Kathleen Ann; Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University; kad984@psu.edu. |
| This paper is a methodological contribution to emerging debates on the role of learning, particularly forward-looking (anticipatory) learning, as a key element for adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. First, we describe two major challenges: understanding adaptation as a process and recognizing the inadequacy of existing learning tools, with a specific focus on high poverty contexts and complex livelihood-vulnerability risks. Then, the article examines learning processes from a dynamic systems perspective, comparing theoretical aspects and conceptual advances in resilience thinking and action research/learning (AR/AL). Particular attention is paid to learning loops (cycles), critical reflection, spaces for learning, and power.... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Anticipatory capacity; Action research/learning; Climatic uncertainty; Iterative learning; Reflection; Learning spaces; Scenarios; Development. |
| Ano: 2010 |
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| Malinga, Rebecka; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; rebecka.malinga@stockholmresilience.su.se; Gordon, Line J.; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; line.gordon@stockholmresilience.su.se; Lindborg, Regina; Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University; regina.lindborg@natgeo.su.se; Jewitt, Graham; Centre for Water Resources Research, Umgeni Water Chair of Water Resources Management, University of KwaZulu-Natal ; jewittg@ukzn.ac.za. |
| There is a growing interest in assessing ecosystem services to improve ecosystem management in landscapes containing a mix of different ecosystems. While methodologies for assessing ecosystem services are constantly improving, only little attention has been given to the identification of which ecosystem services to assess. Service selection is mostly based on current state of the landscape although many landscapes are both inherently complex and rapidly changing. In this study we examine whether scenario development, a tool for dealing with uncertainties and complexities of the future, gives important insights into the selection of ecosystem services in changing landscapes. Using an agricultural landscape in South Africa we compared different sets of... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Complexity; Ecosystem services; Future; Landscape; Scenarios; Social-ecological systems; South Africa; Uncertainties. |
| Ano: 2013 |
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| Diniz, Fabio H.; Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, Embrapa Dairy Cattle, Brazil; fabio.homero@embrapa.br; Kok, Kasper; Soil Geography and Landscape Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, The Netherlands; Kasper.Kok@wur.nl; Hoogstra-Klein, Marjanke A.; Forest and Nature Conservation Policy Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, The Netherlands; Marjanke.Hoogstra@wur.nl; Arts, Bas; Forest and Nature Conservation Policy, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, The Netherlands; bas.arts@wur.nl. |
| Deforestation is a widely recognized problem in the Brazilian Amazon. Small farmers play a key role in this process in that they earn their livelihood by ranching and farming. Many studies have addressed the link between deforestation and livelihood strategies adopted by small farmers. Most have focused on advanced monitoring systems, simulation models, and GIS approaches to analyze the interaction of both dimensions, i.e., livelihoods and forest cover change. Although the current toolbox of methods has proved successful in increasing our understanding of these interactions, the models and approaches employed do not consider small farmers’ perspectives. On the assumption that local small farmers are agents of land-cover change, understanding how... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Brazil; Deforestation; Fuzzy cognitive maps; Mental model; Pará ; Scenarios. |
| Ano: 2015 |
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| Carpenter, Stephen R; Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Booth, Eric G.; Department of Agronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison; egbooth@wisc.edu; Gillon, Sean; Department of Food Systems and Society, Marylhurst University; Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; sgillon@marylhurst.edu; Kucharik, Christopher J.; Department of Agronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison; kucharik@wisc.edu; Loheide, Steven; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Loheide@wisc.edu; Mase, Amber S.; Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Mase@wisc.edu; Motew, Melissa; Nelson Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Motew@wisc.edu; Qiu, Jiangxiao; Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; jqiu7@wisc.edu; Rissman, Adena R; Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; ARRissman@wisc.edu; Seifert, Jenny; Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; JSeifert2@wisc.edu; Soylu, Evren; Department of Civil Engineering, Meliksah University; Nelson Institute for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison; evrensoylu@gmail.com; Turner, Monica; Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin-Madison; turnermg @ wisc.edu; Wardropper, Chloe B; Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Wardropper@wisc.edu. |
| Agricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km², population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Alternative futures; Climate; Ecosystem services; Eutrophication; Governance; Lakes; Land-use change; Phosphorus; Scenarios. |
| Ano: 2015 |
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| Sharpe, Bill; International Futures Forum, The Boathouse, Silversands, Aberdour, Fife, UK; bill@billsharpe.eu; Hodgson, Anthony; International Futures Forum, The Boathouse, Silversands, Aberdour, Fife, UK; Centre for Environmental Change and Human Resilience, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK ; tony@decisionintegrity.co.uk; Leicester, Graham; International Futures Forum, The Boathouse, Silversands, Aberdour, Fife, UK; graham@internationalfuturesforum.com; Lyon, Andrew; International Futures Forum, The Boathouse, Silversands, Aberdour, Fife, UK; andrew@internationalfuturesforum.com; Fazey, Ioan; Centre for Environmental Change and Human Resilience, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK ; i.fazey@dundee.ac.uk. |
| Global environmental change requires responses that involve marked or qualitative changes in individuals, institutions, societies, and cultures. Yet, while there has been considerable effort to develop theory about such processes, there has been limited research on practices for facilitating transformative change. We present a novel pathways approach called Three Horizons that helps participants work with complex and intractable problems and uncertain futures. The approach is important for helping groups work with uncertainty while also generating agency in ways not always addressed by existing futures approaches. We explain how the approach uses a simple framework for structured and guided dialogue around different patterns of change by using examples. We... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Adaptation pathways; Climate change; Scenarios; Transformation; Transition. |
| Ano: 2016 |
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| Vieira,Débora de FA; Clemente,Flávia Maria VT. |
| ABSTRACT Farmers and the rural extension service in Planaltina, in the Federal District, an important pole of tomato and sweet pepper production in the Brazilian Midwest region, have been observing decreases in yield in protected cultivation lately. Yields are getting back to those registered in initial years of the system’s implementation in the region. Besides, prices paid to farmers dropped due to the retreat in fruit and vegetable consumption by Brazilians registered since 2015, triggering a crisis in the region. The so-called “Harvest-Expedition on Protected Cultivation” brought together Embrapa (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation), Emater-DF (Federal District Agency for Technical Assistance and Rural Extension) and SEAGRI-DF (State... |
| Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
Palavras-chave: Diagnosis; Tomato; Sweet pepper; Management; Scenarios. |
| Ano: 2018 |
URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-05362018000400431 |
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| Gomes,João Flávio B; Gomes,Renata SB; Souza,Alex O. |
| ABSTRACT Urban agriculture is currently carried out all over the world. The activity is characterized by its multifunctionality, contributing to food security, preservation of biodiversity, better use of urban spaces, and proper management of soil and water, in addition to contributing to increasing income and improving the quality of life of farmers who live in the cities. In the 1980s and 1990s, urban agriculture gained momentum on the international scene and, from 2005, in Brazil. Some successful experiences in the world (Detroit, Havana, and St. Petersburg) and in Brazil (Teresina, Sao Paulo, and Belo Horizonte) are briefly reported here. Then, we describe in more detail the case of the city of São Luís. The municipality is situated on an island and... |
| Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
Palavras-chave: Urban- and peri-urban agriculture; Public policies; Production chains; Socioeconomic analysis; Diagnosis; Scenarios. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-05362019000300252 |
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| Vendeville, Philippe; Fadhel, Hosni; Magraoui, Amira; Sacchi, Jacques. |
| The demersal trawl fishery of the north Tunisian coast primarily targets the deep-water rose shrimp, Parapenaeus longirostris, and secondarily a variety of demersal fish species. These fishes include hake (Merluccius merluccius), common pandora (Pagellus erythrinus), red mullet (Mullus barbatus), surmullet (Mullus surmuletus), Atlantic horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus), bogue (Boops boops), picarel (Spicara smaris) and spotted flounder (Citharus linguatula). A bioeconomic model was used to test management measures through scenarios that ran over eleven years to estimate the viability of the fishery according to biological and economic results. The most beneficial scenario was the combination of several management measures including a temporal closure of... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Bioeconomic modeling; Bycatch; Deep-water rose shrimp; Mediterranean shrimp fisheries; Scenarios; Temporal closure. |
| Ano: 2016 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00339/45048/44568.pdf |
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| Sitas, Nadia; Harmáčková, Zuzana V.; Anticamara, Jonathan A.; Arneth, Almut; Badola, Ruchi; Biggs, Reinette; Blanchard, Ryan; Brotons, Lluis; Cantele, Matthew; Coetzer, Kaera; Dasgupta, Rajarshi; Den Belder, Eefje; Ghosh, Sonali; Guisan, Antoine; Gundimeda, Haripriya; Hamann, Meike; Harrison, Paula A.; Hashimoto, Shizuka; Hauck, Jennifer; Klatt, Brian J.; Kok, Kasper; Krug, Rainer M.; Niamir, Aidin; O'Farrell, Patrick J.; Okayasu, Sana; Palomo, Ignacio; Pereira, Laura M.; Riordan, Philip; Santos-martín, Fernando; Selomane, Odirilwe; Shin, Yunne-jai; Valle, Mireia. |
| Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Assessment; Biodiversity; Decision making; Ecosystem services; Futures; Nature; Regional; Scenarios. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00516/62748/67140.pdf |
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| Garnier, Josette; Riou, Philippe; Le Gendre, Romain; Ramarson, Antsiva; Billen, Gilles; Cugier, Philippe; Schapira, Mathilde; Théry, Sylvain; Thieu, Vincent; Ménesguen, Alain. |
| The continental coastal waters of the Eastern Channel, from Normandy to Hauts-de-France, are subject to the major influence of unbalanced nutrient inputs from inflowing rivers. Several episodes of harmful algal blooms (HABs) compromising fishing and shellfish farming activities have been observed at the coast. For a better understanding of how the land-to-sea aquatic continuum functions, the GRAFS-RIVERSTRAHLER river biogeochemical model was implemented to cover the watersheds of 11 rivers flowing into this area (including the Seine) and chained with the ecological marine ECO-MARS3D model, applied to the French Northern coastal zone. Human activities strongly impact on the functioning of coastal ecosystems. Specifically, for these fertile soils of Northern... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Toxic microalgae; Pseudo-nitzschia spp.; River basins; Nutrient flows; Scenarios; Coastal zone ecosystem; Modelling. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00589/70076/68049.pdf |
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| Lacroix, Denis; Laurent, Louis; De Menthière, Nicolas; Schmitt, Bertrand; Béthinger, Audrey; David, Bernard; Didier, Christophe; Parent Du Châtelet, Jacques. |
| Scientific programming in environmental science often relies on short-term (3 to 5 years) trend-based projections for contextual elements like the demography or the economy to construct or justify its choice of priorities. However, this approach does not take into account numerous factors of change or disruption over a longer term (10 to 20, or even 50 years), although a decade or two are needed to effectively deal with the stakes of research. These stakes become more acute over the long term, as consequences of predicted changes (e. g. climate) or other factors such as pollution, biodiversity erosion, reduction of ecosystemic services.... This complex question justifies turning to a foresight approach. Because it enables tipping points to be envisaged for... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Research programming; Foresight; Scenarios; Environment; 2100. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00491/60236/63980.pdf |
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| Registros recuperados: 31 | |
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