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Managing Price Risk in a Changing Policy Environment: The Case of the EU Dairy Industry AgEcon
O'Connor, Declan; Keane, Michael; Barnes, Edel.
The EU dairy industry faces an unprecedented level of change. The anticipated removal of milk quotas and the move to a less restricted global trade environment will provide the industry with both opportunities and challenges. The primary challenge will be the need for the industry to deal with more volatile prices. Active management of the risks associated with these more volatile prices will help to place the industry in a more competitive position. However this will require the industry and policy makers to embrace a new set of tools. For example the US dairy industry has been much more active in the management of risk and lessons from their experience provide a valuable insight into which tools may be more appropriate in an EU context.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dairy; Risk Management; EU; US.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48112
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Measuring Volatility in Dairy Commodity Prices AgEcon
O'Connor, Declan; Keane, Michael; Barnes, Edel.
The policy environment facing the EU dairy industry continues to undergo considerable change under WTO and CAP reform. Movement away from supply management by the EU and a more liberal global agricultural trading system will involve greater price volatility for dairy commodities. It is anticipated that EU dairy prices will more closely align with world prices. World prices are both lower and more volatile than EU prices and it is further assumed that this increased volatility will be transmitted to EU prices. Price volatility is a concern for a number of reasons as it adds challenges for business planning, debt repayment, and, in some cases, solvency. Representative EU and world butter and SMP (Skim Milk Powder) prices are considered and using the ARMA and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Price Volatility; ARMA; GARCH; Butter; SMP; Dairy Policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58106
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