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| Registros recuperados: 12 | |
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| Cabrini, Silvina M.; Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| This paper employs a Bayesian hierarchical approach to estimate individual expected performance of market advisory programs in corn and soybeans. This estimation procedure is a conservative approach compared to traditional estimation, since it reduces estimation error in the expected gains from following top-performing advisory programs. Three versions of the model are estimated. The first combines information across the entire sample, while the second includes skeptical beliefs based on the efficient market hypothesis. The third divides programs into two groups based on the degree of activeness in marketing recommendations. Results indicate that even when skeptical beliefs are incorporated into the model a few programs in corn and several programs in... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19002 |
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| Cabrini, Silvina M.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| A Bayesian hierarchical model was employed to estimate individual expected pricing performance for market advisory programs in corn and soybeans. Performance is defined as the difference between the price/revenue obtained by following the program's marketing recommendations and the average price/revenue offered by the market along the marketing window. The estimates obtained from this model are weighted averages of traditional separate and pooled estimates. Based on the sample employed, the most reasonable individual estimates for expected pricing performance imply a substantial shrinkage towards pooled values. The Bayesian estimates for expected pricing performance range from ¢9/bu to ¢9/bu for corn, from ¢11/bu to ¢17/bu for soybeans and $0.4/acre to... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19469 |
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| Cabrini, Silvina M.; Stark, Brian G.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| This study analyzes the potential risk reduction gains from naive diversification (equal-weighting) among market advisory services for corn and soybeans. The total possible decrease in risk through naive diversification is small, mainly because advisory prices are highly correlated on average. Moreover, since marginal risk reduction benefits decrease rapidly with size, and the cost of holding the portfolios increases linearly due to services' subscription fees, it is optimal to limit portfolio size to a few advisory programs. Based on certainty equivalent measures and two representative risk aversion levels, preferred portfolio sizes are between one and three services. Overall, there does not appear to be strong justification for farmers adopting... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19013 |
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| Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Stark, Brian G.; Shi, Wei; Webber, Rick L.; Hagedorn, Lewis A.; Williams, Steven L.. |
| This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 1995 through 2000 corn crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program's set of recommendations throughout a crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14776 |
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| Cabrini, Silvina M.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| This paper describes the degree of marketing activeness of market advisory programs for corn and soybeans, and analyzes the relationship between activeness degree and pricing performance. The data set employed consists of advisory programs tracked by the AgMAS Project at the University of Illinois between 1995 and 2001. Cluster analysis was conducted to group the programs according to their degree of activeness. Panel data regression models were estimated to evaluate the relationship between activeness degree and pricing performance. In the corn market, point estimates indicate a positive effect of the degree of activeness on pricing performance, but this effect is of small magnitude and statistically insignificant. For soybeans,there is a stronger... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19037 |
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| Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Stark, Brian G.; Shi, Wei; Webber, Rick L.; Hagedorn, Lewis A.; Williams, Steven L.. |
| This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 1995 through 2000 soybean crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program's set of recommendations throughout a crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14791 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Joao, Martines-Filho. |
| This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2001 soybean crop. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the sensitivity of the... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37507 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Aulerich, Nicole M.; Brandenberger, Tracy L.; Merrin, Robert P.; Shi, Wei; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 corn crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37484 |
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| Stark, Brian G.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| Agricultural market advisory services offer specific advice to farmers on how to market their commodities. Farmers can subscribe to one or more of these services and follow their advice as a way of managing price risk. According to portfolio theory, a combination of these services may have risk/return benefits compared to individual services. This report analyzes the potential risk reduction gains from naïve diversification among market advisory services for corn and soybeans. Results show that increasing the number of (equal-weighting) services reduces portfolio expected risk, but the marginal decrease in risk from adding a new service decreases rapidly with portfolio size. The risk reduction benefits of naïve diversification among advisory services... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14774 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Aulerich, Nicole M.; Brandenberger, Tracy L.; Merrin, Robert P.; Shi, Wei; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 soybean crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37485 |
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| Registros recuperados: 12 | |
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