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Registros recuperados: 16 | |
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Cassuce, Francisco Carlos da Cunha; Muller, Carlos Andre da Silva; Campos, Antonio Carvalho. |
The objective of this work is to determine the presence of volatility in the spot and futures exchange rates, detecting, thus, the presence of risk. Identified the volatility, it is looked for shaping it through the construction of models capable to forecast the behavior of the spot and futures exchange rates. The GARCH and TARCH models had been used to shape the volatility of the exchange rates. Gotten the estimates, it is verified existence of convergence of these rates in the date of the expirations of future contracts, identifying, thus, the chance to get profits with arbitrage. The results had shown more that the spot and futures exchange rates are very volatile and the spot exchange market presents asymmetry, being affected for negative impacts. The... |
Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Arbitrage; Spot exchange rate; Futures exchange rate; Volatility; International Relations/Trade. |
Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55177 |
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Scalco, Paulo Roberto; Carvalho, Henrique Duarte; Campos, Antonio Carvalho. |
O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar os efeitos de longo e curto prazos de choques na taxa de câmbio real sobre o saldo da balança comercial agropecuária brasileira. O procedimento metodológico empregado foi a análise multivariada descrita em Johansen (1988 e 1991) apud Hamilton (1994). Os resultados indicam que existe uma relação de longo prazo entre a depreciação na taxa de câmbio real e o saldo da balança comercial. Verifica-se que, no longo prazo, um aumento de 1,0 % da taxa de câmbio leva a uma expansão de 2,10 % no saldo da balança comercial. Esse resultado está consistente com a condição de Marshall-Lerner que afirma: no longo prazo, o efeito volume deve superar o efeito preço, promovendo, assim, um aumento no saldo da balança comercial. Entretanto,... |
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Condição de Marshall-Lerner; Curva J; Taxa de câmbio; Balança comercial; Setor agropecuário; Marshall-Lerner condition; J-Curve; Exchange rate; Trade balance; Agricultural sector; International Relations/Trade. |
Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109536 |
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Cassuce, Francisco Carlos da Cunha; Mattos, Leonardo Bornacki de; Campos, Antonio Carvalho. |
The present work looked for to show the influence of nominal variable in the determination of nominal exchange rate R$/USS. For this, the model of the parity of the tax of interests was used, ally to the monetary market. It was looked, also, to foresee the tax of exchange rate R$/USS, until December of 2005. For reaching such objectives, the equations of the system had been obtained by the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results had shown that the nominal variable are very important to determinate the exchange rate and that the model of parity of the tax of interests, ally to the monetary market is confirmed for the Brazilian case in the period of analysis (jan/1999 to dez/2004). This conclusion is made on the basis of the high capacity of... |
Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Exchange; Forecast; Brazil; International Relations/Trade. |
Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55311 |
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Gurgel, Angelo Costa; Campos, Antonio Carvalho. |
Este trabalho procura determinar os impactos de diferentes opções de política comercial, sob pressuposições alternativas de retornos à escala e natureza da competição, nos segmentos industriais, com ênfase especial nas indústrias ligadas ao agronegócio. O modelo de equilíbrio geral aplicado, GTAPinGAMS, é usado para implementar as simulações. Os resultados sugerem que os ganhos de bem-estar tenham sido superiores no modelo que considera as imperfeições de mercado. As variações setoriais na produção, importações e exportações foram levemente diferentes em magnitudes e sinais, sob pressuposições alternativas de estruturas de mercados, e dependentes da política comercial implementada. As diferentes medidas de política comercial permitem o aproveitamento de... |
Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Política comercial; Economias de escala; Equilíbrio geral; International Relations/Trade. |
Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56829 |
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Coronel, Daniel Arruda; Amorim, Airton Lopes; Braga, Marcelo Jose; Campos, Antonio Carvalho. |
The objective of this paper was to verify the market power of the Argentinean, Brazilian and American exports of soymeal to the European Union, the main consumer market of this commodity. For that, the article is based on the methodology of residual demand. Using the methods Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) and Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS), the results indicated that, though this segment is concentrated by Argentina, Brazil and the United States, none of these countries presented market power for soymeal exports. In other words, they are not able to change soymeal prices without to decrease the exports |
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Market Power; International Trade; Soymeal; Residual Demand; Industrial Organization; International Relations/Trade; F12; L13. |
Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114462 |
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Sousa, Eliane Pinheiro de; Campos, Antonio Carvalho. |
This article aims at to verify the effects of the trade agreements implanted in the textile sector (Multi-fibre Agreement, Agreement on Textiles and Clothing and liberalization of the textile sector in the world trade) about the integration among the internal and external prices of the cotton of january of 1990 to february of 2009. For that, they were employees the tests for unitary root and Johansen’s co-integration; estimation and analysis of and the vector error correction model (VEC) and the exogenicity test. The results revealed that the markets brazilian and american can be considered integrated in all of the analyzed samples, indicating that variations of price of the cotton happened at a market is reviewed to the other market in the long period,... |
Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Cotton; Integration of markets; Law of One Price; Trade agreements; International Relations/Trade. |
Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56851 |
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Lirio, Viviani Silva; Campos, Antonio Carvalho. |
This study has the objective of evaluating the economic effects of the Brazilian integration into the Free Trade Association of Americas - FTAA under two alternative scenarios. In the first, the adhesion of the Brazilian economy would happen as an isolated country. In the second, the joint adhesion of Brazil would follow the rules established for all members of MERCOSUR. The analytical framework is that of an applied general equilibrium analysis which permit the measurement of different impacts of simulations on selected economic indicators. The results point out that the joint adhesion of MERCOSUR countries as an economic block into FTAA, which is the position defended by Brazilian negotiators, is much more beneficial to the Brazilian economy than the... |
Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: FTAA; MERCOSUR; Applied General Equilibrium Analysis; International Relations/Trade. |
Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56783 |
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Valente, Luiza Carneiro Mareti; Gomes, Marilia Fernandes Maciel; Campos, Antonio Carvalho. |
Animal infectious disease outbreaks as Avian Influenza, Foot and mouth disease and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy can influence trade and bring economic consequences to affected countries. For this reason, this work aims to analyze the effects on meat import demand in the years of 1997 and 2003 to 2005, the Avian Influenza outbreaks period. The analytical framework used was panel data econometrics. The results point to a reduction on chicken meat demand in 1997 and increase to the other meats, indicating a possible substitution. From 2003 on, chicken meat demand showed slight increase, as did pig meat, only bovine meat demand showed a reduction. This fact can be explained by a restriction on bovine and chicken supply caused by the imposition of sanitary... |
Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Avian Influenza; Import demand; Beef; Chicken meat; Panel data; International Relations/Trade. |
Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94837 |
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Registros recuperados: 16 | |
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