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| Auffhammer, Maximilian; Carson, Richard T.; Garin-Munoz, Teresa. |
| Forecasts of Chinese carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are critical to any global agreement on mitigating possible global climate change. We provide such forecasts through 2050 using a reduced form model selected using a general to simple search strategy. These estimates are the first based upon provincial-level data (1985-2000). The model chosen by the information criterion is one that melds the standard approach taken in the science and engineering literature with the environmental Kuznets curve approach popular in the economics literature whereby per capita emissions can first rise and then fall with increases in income. Other aspects of the model allow for the possibility that the rate of technological change varies across provinces and the possibility of... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25109 |
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| Carson, Richard T.; Hanemann, W. Michael; Kopp, Raymond J.; Krosnick, Jon A.; Mitchell, Robert C.; Presser, Stanley; Ruud, Paul A.; Smith, V. Kerry. |
| In 1992 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) convened a panel of prominent social scientists to assess the reliability of natural resource damage estimates derived from contingent valuation (CV). The product of the panel's deliberations was a report that laid out a set of recommended guidelines for CV survey design, administration, and data analysis. This paper focuses on one of these guidelines -- the Panel's call for the "temporal averaging" of willingness-to-pay (WTP) responses obtained from CV surveys as one method for increasing their reliability. The panel suggested: "Time dependent measurement noise should be reduced by averaging across independently drawn samples taken at different points in time. A clear and substantial time... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Contingent valuation; Natural resource damages; Passive use; Exxon Valdez; Reliability; Environmental Economics and Policy; D60; D61; K32; Q28. |
| Ano: 1995 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10580 |
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| Carson, Richard T.; Hanemann, W. Michael; Kopp, Raymond J.; Krosnick, Jon A.; Mitchell, Robert C.; Presser, Stanley; Ruud, Paul A.; Smith, V. Kerry; Conaway, Michael; Martin, Kerry. |
| The past few years have seen a highly charged debate about whether contingent valuation (CV) surveys can provide valid economic measures of people's values for environmental resources. In an effort to appraise the validity of CV measures of economic value, a distinguished panel of social scientists, chaired by two Nobel laureates, was established by NOAA, to critically evaluate the validity of CV measures of nonuse value. The Panel provided an extensive set of guidelines for CV survey construction, administration, and analysis, and distinguished a subset of items from their guidelines for special emphasis and described them as burden of proof requirements. Of particular interest was the Panel's requirement that CV surveys demonstrate "responsiveness to the... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Contingent valuation; Scope test; NOAA Panel; Environmental Economics and Policy; D6; H4. |
| Ano: 1996 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10503 |
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| Auffhammer, Maximilian; Carson, Richard T.. |
| Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2015 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This dataset contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series models currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Forecasting; Climate Change; China; Model Selection; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q43; C53. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7197 |
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| Carson, Richard T.; Hanemann, W. Michael; Kopp, Raymond J.; Krosnick, Jon A.; Mitchell, Robert C.; Presser, Stanley; Ruud, Paul A.; Smith, V. Kerry; Conaway, Michael; Martin, Kerry. |
| In 1992 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) convened a panel of prominent social scientists to assess the reliability of natural resource damage estimates derived from contingent valuation (CV). The product of the Panel's deliberations was a report that laid out a set of recommended guidelines for CV survey design, administration, and data analysis. One of the Panel's recommendations was that CV surveys should employ a referendum approach. This method describes a choice mechanism that asks each respondent how they would vote if faced with a particular program and the prospect of paying for the program through some means, such as higher taxes. The Panel also recommended that CV referendum questions which commonly use only "for" or... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Contingent valuation; Natural resource damages; Passive use; Exxon Valdez; Reliability; Environmental Economics and Policy; D60; D61; K32; Q28. |
| Ano: 1995 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10865 |
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