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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H.; Garcia, Philip. |
| This study investigates the predictability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative market and time-series forecasts. The findings suggest that predictive performance of the outlook hog price forecasts can be improved substantially. Under RMSE, VARs estimated with Bayesian procedures that allow for some degree of flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Forecast; Futures; Models; Prices; Time-series; Vector autoregression; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37620 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the accuracy of outlook forecasts relative to futures prices in hog and cattle markets. Published forecasts from four prominent livestock outlook programs are available for analysis. Most of the series begin in the mid- to late-1970s and end in 2006. Root mean squared error (RMSE) comparisons indicate, with one exception, no meaningful differences in forecast accuracy between outlook forecasts and futures prices. The null hypothesis that futures prices encompass outlook forecasts is rejected in 9 of 11 cases for hogs and 7 of 8 cases for cattle, clearly indicating that outlook forecasts provide incremental information not contained in futures prices. The magnitude of decline in RMSE from... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Cattle; Encompassing; Forecast; Futures price; Hogs; Outlook; RMSE. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37577 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Joao, Martines-Filho. |
| This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2001 soybean crop. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the sensitivity of the... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37507 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Aulerich, Nicole M.; Brandenberger, Tracy L.; Merrin, Robert P.; Shi, Wei; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 corn crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37484 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Aulerich, Nicole M.; Brandenberger, Tracy L.; Merrin, Robert P.; Shi, Wei; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 soybean crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37485 |
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